Description: Low-salinity waters in the upper Arctic Ocean, referred to as “freshwaters”, are cold and play a major role in isolating the sea ice cover from the heat stored in the salty Atlantic Waters (AW) underneath. We examined changes in Arctic freshwater distribution and circulation since 2007 using the 1/12° global Mercator Ocean operational model. We first evaluated model simulations over the upper water column in the Arctic Ocean, using nearly 20,000 independent in situ temperature-salinity profiles over the 2007–2020 period. Simulated hydrographic properties and water mass distributions were in good agreement with observations. Comparison with long-term mooring data in the Bering Strait and Beaufort Gyre highlighted the model's capabilities for reproducing the interannual evolution of Pacific Water properties. Taking advantage of the good performance of the model, we examined the interannual evolution of the freshwater distribution and circulation over 2007–2020. The Beaufort Gyre is the major freshwater reservoir across the full Arctic Ocean. After 2012 the gyre extended northward and increased the freshwater content in the Makarov Basin, near the North Pole. Coincidentally, the freshwater content decreased along the East Siberian slope, along with the AW shoaling, and the Transpolar Drift moved from the Lomonosov Ridge to align with the Mendeleev Ridge. We found that these changes in freshwater distribution were followed in 2015 by a marked change in the export of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean with a reduction in Fram Strait (−30%) and an increase in the western Canadian Archipelago (+16%).

Description: The evolution of halocline waters in the Makarov Basin and along the East Siberian continental slope is examined by combining drifting platform observations, shipborne hydrographic data, and simulations from a global operational physical model from 2007 to 2020. From 2012 onwards, relatively shallow and cold Atlantic-derived lower halocline waters, previously restricted to the Lomonosov Ridge area, progressed eastward along the East Siberian continental slope. Their eastward extent abruptly shifted from 155°E to 170°E in early 2012, stabilized at 170°E until the end of 2015, then gradually advanced to reach the western Chukchi Sea in 2017. Such eastward progression led to a strengthening of the associated boundary current and to the shedding of mesoscale eddies of cold Atlantic-derived waters into the lower halocline of the Makarov Basin in September 2015 and near the East Siberian continental slope in November 2017. Additionally, active mixing between upwelled Atlantic Water and shelf water formed dense warm water supplying the Makarov Basin lower halocline. The increasing contribution from Atlantic-derived waters into the lower halocline along the East Siberian continental slope and in the Makarov Basin led to a weakening of the halocline, which is characteristic of a new Arctic Ocean regime that started in the early 2000s in the Eurasian Basin. Our results suggest that this new Arctic regime may now extend toward the Amerasian Basin.

Description: With a growing concern over rapid Antarctic ice loss in recent years, the Amundsen Sea, one of the fastest-melting areas in Antarctica, currently becomes a hotspot for the Earth sciences in the context of its linkage to global climate. As a center of strong physical and biological coupling processes, polynyas of the Amundsen Sea could act as sentinels of changes in atmosphere–ice–ocean interactions, offering a unique perspective into its sensitivity to climate variability. Here, we present a new, multiproxy-based high-resolution sedimentary record from the Amundsen Sea polynya, which provides new insights into environmental conditions of the region over the last 350 years and their linkages to climatic factors. Our results show that the polynya witnessed step-wise environmental shifts in parallel with the phases and strength of large-scale climate patterns, i.e., the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Notably, intersite correlation of on-shelf Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) intrusion signals at different locals suggests that the CDW may have gained increased access to the shelves at the time of a strong coupling of positive SAM and El Niño states. We tentatively speculate that anomalous large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns over the Southern Hemisphere, forced by increasing greenhouse gas levels, were strongly involved in the mid-20th century CDW invigoration, which may be greater in scale that goes well beyond the Amundsen Sea region. This result is relevant to the current debate on spatial heterogeneity in the timing and phasing of major climatic events in Antarctica, underscoring an unambiguous connection of the Antarctic climate state to the large-scale ocean–atmosphere reorganizations. Our study also extends a growing evidence that today's global warming trend is expected to have a severe effect on future configuration of Antarctic continental ice-shelf environment.

Description: The Makarov Basin halocline receives contributions from diverse water masses of Atlantic, Pacific, and East Siberian Sea origin. Changes in surface circulation (e.g., in the Transpolar Drift and Beaufort Gyre) have been documented since the 2000s, while the upper ocean column in the Makarov Basin has received little attention. The evolution of the upper and lower halocline in the Makarov Basin and along the East Siberian Sea slope was examined combining drifting platforms observations, shipborne hydrographic data, and modelled fields from a global operational physical model. In 2015, the upper halocline in the Makarov Basin was warmer, fresher, and thicker compared to 2008 and 2017, likely resulting from the particularly westward extension of the Beaufort Gyre that year. From 2012-onwards, cold Atlantic-derived lower halocline waters, previously restricted to the Lomonosov Ridge area, progressed eastward along the East Siberian slope, with a sharp shift from 155 to 170°E above the 1000 m isobath in winter 2011-2012, followed by a progressive eastward motion after winter 2015-2016 and reached the western Chukchi Sea in 2017. In parallel, an active mixing between upwelled Atlantic water and shelf water along the slope, formed dense warm water which also supplied the Makarov Basin lower halocline. The progressive weakening of the halocline, together with shallower Atlantic Waters, is emblematic of a new Arctic Ocean regime that started in the early 2000s in the Eurasian Basin. Our results suggest that this new Arctic regime now may extend toward the Amerasian Basin.

Description: The influences of North Atlantic biases on multiyear predictability of unforced surface air temperature (SAT) variability are examined in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). By employing a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model, which strongly alleviates both North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface temperature (SST) biases, the freshwater flux-corrected integration depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector in comparison to the uncorrected one. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected integration is due to a stronger and more variable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic SST. Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SAT and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.

Description: A long-standing problem in climate models is the large sea surface salinity (SSS) biases in the North Atlantic. In this study, we describe the influences of correcting these SSS biases on the circulation of the North Atlantic as well as on North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal to multidecadal variability. We performed integrations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) with and without applying a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic. The quality of simulating the mean circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability is greatly enhanced in the freshwater flux-corrected integration which, by definition, depicts relatively small North Atlantic SSS biases. In particular, a large reduction in the North Atlantic cold sea surface temperature bias is observed and a more realistic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability simulated. Improvements relative to the non-flux corrected integration also comprise a more realistic representation of deep convection sites, sea ice, gyre circulation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The results suggest that simulations of North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability could strongly benefit from alleviating sea surface salinity biases in the North Atlantic, which may enhance the skill of decadal predictions in that region.

Description: The North Atlantic (NA) basin-averaged sea surface temperature (NASST) is often used as an index to study climate variability in the NA sector. However, there is still some debate on what drives it. Based on observations and climate models, an analysis of the different influences on the NASST index and its low-pass filtered version, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) index, is provided. In particular, the relationships of the two indices with some of its mechanistic drivers including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are investigated. In observations, the NASST index accounts for significant SST variability over the tropical and subpolar NA. The NASST index is shown to lump together SST variability originating from different mechanisms operating on different time scales. The AMO index emphasizes the subpolar SST variability. In the climate models, the SST-anomaly pattern associated with the NASST index is similar. The AMO index, however, only represents pronounced SST variability over the extratropical NA, and this variability is significantly linked to the AMOC. There is a sensitivity of this linkage to the cold NA SST bias observed in many climate models. Models suffering from a large cold bias exhibit a relatively weak linkage between the AMOC and AMO and vice versa. Finally, the basin-averaged SST in its unfiltered form, which has been used to question a strong influence of ocean dynamics on NA SST variability, mixes together multiple types of variability occurring on different time scales and therefore underemphasizes the role of ocean dynamics in the multidecadal variability of NA SSTs.

Description: There is a controversy about the origin of the recent decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowing observed at 26.5°N and concurrent sea surface temperature cooling in the central and eastern mid-latitude North Atlantic. We investigate decadal AMOC slowing events simulated in a multi-millennial preindustrial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), providing an estimate of internal AMOC variability. Preindustrial control integrations of 15 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 also are investigated, as well as historical simulations with them providing estimates of AMOC variability during 1856–2005. It is shown that the recent decadal AMOC decline is still within the range of the models’ internal AMOC variability and thus could be of natural origin. In this case, the decline would represent an extreme realization of internal variability provided the climate models yield realistic levels of AMOC variability. The model results suggest that internal decadal AMOC variability is large, requiring multi-decadal observational records to detect an anthropogenic AMOC signal with high confidence. When analyzing the strongest decadal AMOC slowing events in the KCM, which have amplitudes similar to or larger than the recently observed decadal AMOC decline, the following composite picture emerges: a very strong decadal AMOC decline is preceded by a decadal rise in atmospheric surface pressure over large parts of the mid-latitude North Atlantic. The change in low-level atmospheric circulation drives reduced oceanic heat loss over and diminished upper-ocean salt content in the Labrador Sea. In response, oceanic deep convection and subsequently the AMOC and northward oceanic heat transport weaken, and anomalously cold sea surface temperatures develop in the central and eastern mid-latitude North Atlantic