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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-06-20
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 2
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    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Publication Date: 2023-06-01
    Description: The representation of the semi-annual oscillation (SAO) in models shows up a common easterly bias of several tens of m/s compared to observations. These biases are likely a response to deficiencies in eastward wave forcing or the position and timing of the climatological summertime jet and Brewer-Dobson circulation (Smith et al 2019). This motivates further analysis of the energetics of the upper stratosphere within models and a more detailed comparison with reanalyses to see where these differences are coming from. In this study, ERA5, ERA-interim and MERRA2 reanalysis data are used to analyse the contributions of different forcing terms (from the transformed Eulerian mean momentum equation) within the SAO. A comparison is made between model data from CMIP6 and reanalysis. Analyses show that lack of strong resolved waves and parameterised gravity waves, along with weakened BDC above 1hPa might be the major model deficiencies. A further analysis is in progress to identify likely improvements, including improved convective gravity wave parametrisation, vertical resolution and whether the tropical stratosphere circulation biases are sensitive to these. Preliminary experiments by constraining the winds in lower-middle stratosphere and improving the vertical resolution are showing promising results towards improving SAO representation in models.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2023-07-01
    Description: To improve our knowledge of the coupling of atmospheric circulation, composition and regional climate, and to provide the urgently needed observations of long-term changes in the middle atmosphere, the Changing-Atmosphere Infra-Red Tomography Explorer (CAIRT) is one of four mission concepts down-selected by the European Space Agency (ESA) for competitive pre-feasibility studies, vying for implementation as the next Earth Explorer satellite mission. As a Fourier transform infrared limb imager, CAIRT will observe simultaneously from the middle troposphere to the lower thermosphere at high spectral resolution and with unprecedented horizontal and vertical resolution (with a goal of 50×50×1 km globally). With this, CAIRT will provide new and critical information on (a) atmospheric gravity waves, circulation and mixing, (b) coupling with the upper atmosphere, solar variability and space weather and, (c) aerosols and pollutants in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. In this presentation we will give an overview of CAIRT’s science goals and the expected mission performance, based on latest results from early mission definition studies.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 4
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    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Publication Date: 2023-08-09
    Description: The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-biennial Oscillation Initiative (QBOi) is aimed at improving the representation of tropical stratospheric variability in models. Phase-1 of QBOi analyzed coordinated experiments carried out by 12 modeling groups, revealing common present-day biases across the multi-model ensemble in the simulated QBOs, and both robust and non-robust aspects of future projections in QBO behavior. In addition, QBO teleconnections to the troposphere were examined and showed systematic deficiencies. Findings of QBOi Phase-1 led to the development of new coordinated experiments that constitute Phase-2 of QBOi, now underway. Here we summarize the main findings from these Phase-1 experiments, with the focus on QBO representation, projections of its changes into the future, as well as discussing results from the QBOi-ENSO experiments. Subsequently we describe Phase-2 experiments and show preliminary findings.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2023-08-09
    Description: We investigate the GW dynamics in the 2006 Sudden Stratospheric Warming by means of a high resolution run of the ECMWF-IFS. With initial condition from ERA-5 the ECMWF-IFS GCM was run at TCo2559 spatial resolution (corresponding to a 4.5~km horizontal grid) for 42 hrs in forecasting mode and data for this analysis stored at 24, 30, 36 and 42 hrs. These data were investigated by the small-volume sinusoidal fit method (S3D) resulting in 3D wave vectors, amplitudes and phases of temperature and vertical wind for up to 4 wave components. By comparing phase information from temperature and vertical wind, wave events can be separated for upward and downward propagation. In the days before the break-up of the vortex, gravity wave momentum flux shows a dipole of eastward and westward flux around the vortex edge. We will investigate the generation and corresponding drag of this pattern in detail. In addition we will demonstrate how a novel type of space-borne limb imager, the CAIRT mission proposed for EE11, could gain such information from actual observations. We will highlight the step change such a novel type of observations could make compared to the best available data set, i.e. HIRDLS GW analyses, from this period, which was the golden year of stratospheric GW observations.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2023-06-29
    Description: Recent annual assessments of present-day and future climate variability provided by the World Meteorological Organization have motivated the need for the attribution of environmental change, separating climate forcing agents from large-scale natural climate variability. To address this need operational forecasting systems are essential together with sustained, comprehensive and relevant observations for assessing current climate and climate forcers. The World Climate Research Programme Light House Activity – Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change (EPESC) – will cast a new light on the proximal drivers of regional climate variation on annual-to-decadal (A2D) timescales. The EPESC is focused on three distinct yet interrelated themes: The monitoring and modelling of Earth system change; the integrated attribution, prediction and projection of A2D changes including the potential for extremes; and the assessment of current and future hazards. In this presentation we will outline the current and future requirements of A2D prediction and projection, including the requisite infrastructure of operational attribution and the need for comprehensive whole-atmosphere observations, such as those which will be provided by the proposed Changing-Atmosphere Infra-Red Tomography Explorer (CAIRT), recently selected by the European Space Agency (ESA) as one of four candidates for the Earth Explorer 11 mission.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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