Description: The Mediterranean community represented in this paper is the result of more than 30 years of EU and nationally funded coordination, which has led to key contributions in science concepts and operational initiatives. Together with the establishment of operational services, the community has coordinated with universities, research centers, research infrastructures and private companies to implement advanced multi-platform and integrated observing and forecasting systems that facilitate the advancement of operational services, scientific achievements and mission-oriented innovation. Thus, the community can respond to societal challenges and stakeholders needs, developing a variety of fit-for-purpose services such as the Copernicus Marine Service. The combination of state-of-the-art observations and forecasting provides new opportunities for downstream services in response to the needs of the heavily populated Mediterranean coastal areas and to climate change. The challenge over the next decade is to sustain ocean observations within the research community, to monitor the variability at small scales, e.g., the mesoscale/submesoscale, to resolve the sub-basin/seasonal and inter-annual variability in the circulation, and thus establish the decadal variability, understand and correct the model-associated biases and to enhance model-data integration and ensemble forecasting for uncertainty estimation. Better knowledge and understanding of the level of Mediterranean variability will enable a subsequent evaluation of the impacts and mitigation of the effect of human activities and climate change on the biodiversity and the ecosystem, which will support environmental assessments and decisions. Further challenges include extending the science-based added-value products into societal relevant downstream services and engaging with communities to build initiatives that will contribute to the 2030 Agenda and more specifically to SDG14 and the UN's Decade of Ocean Science for sustainable development, by this contributing to bridge the science-policy gap. The Mediterranean observing and forecasting capacity was built on the basis of community best practices in monitoring and modeling, and can serve as a basis for the development of an integrated global ocean observing system.

Description: The Mediterranean and Black Sea operational forecasting systems are developed and continuously improved in the context of the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS). The two systems operationally produce analyses and 10-days forecasts of the main physical parameters (Temperature, Salinity, Sea Level, Currents, Mixed Layer Depth) with a resolution of about 4.5km in the horizontal over 141 vertical levels in the Mediterranean Sea, and about 3km in the horizontal over 31 vertical levels in the Black Sea. The hydrodynamic numerical solutions are based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) model coupled to a 3D variational data assimilation method (3DVAR) able to assimilate in-situ temperature and salinity profiles, satellite along-track sea level anomaly and sea surface temperature (in the Mediterranean Sea a nudging to satellite SST-L4 dataset is provided). The Mediterranean system is also 2-way online coupled with the WW3 (WaveWatch3) wave model to better represent the surface drag coefficient. The two systems are forced by 1/8o degree ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric fields. The systems are validated in near real time and the quality of the products is monitored through regional websites (http://medfs.cmcc.it/ and http://bsfs.cmcc.it/) showing the analysis and forecast field maps at different depths (in case of 3D variables) as well as a weekly validation of model analysis compared with available observations. The focus of this work is to present the latest modelling system upgrades and the related improvements achieved by showing the model skill assessment including comparison with in-situ and satellite observational datasets.

Description: Unpublished

Description: San Diego, CA, USA

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: The Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (MED-MFC) is part of the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and provides regular and systematic information on the time-evolving Mediterranean Sea physical (including waves) and biogeochemical state. The systems consist of 3 components: 1) Med-Physics, a numerical ocean prediction systems, based on NEMO model, that operationally produces analyses, reanalysis and short term forecasts of the main physical parameters; 2) Med-Biogeochemistry, a biogeochemical analysis, reanalysis and forecasting system based on the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM) which provides information on chlorophyll, phosphate, nitrate, primary productivity, oxygen, phytoplankton biomass, pH and pCO2; 3) Med-Waves based on WAM model and providing analysis, forecast and reanalysis products for waves. The systems have been recently upgraded at a resolution of 1/24 degree in the horizontal and 141 vertical levels. The Med-Physics analysis and forecasting system is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO 2-way coupled with the third-generation wave model WaveWatchIII and forced by ECMWF atmospheric fields. The model solutions are corrected by the 3DVAR data assimilation system (3D variational scheme adapted to the oceanic assimilation problem) with a daily assimilation cycle of sea level anomaly and vertical profiles of temperature and salinity. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and it is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the air-sea interface. The biogeochemical analysis and forecasts are produced by means of the MedBFM v2.1 modeling system (i.e. the physical-biogeochemical OGSTM-BFM model coupled with the 3DVARBIO assimilation scheme) forced by the outputs of the Med-Physics product. Seven days of analysis/hindcast and ten days of forecast are bi-weekly produced on Wednesday and on Saturday, with the assimilation of surface chlorophyll concentration from satellite observations. In-situ data are mainly used to estimate model uncertainty at different spatial scales. The Med-Waves modelling system is based on the WAM Cycle 4.5.4 wave model code. It consists of a wave model grid covering the Mediterranean Sea at a 1/24° horizontal resolution, nested to a North Atlantic grid at a 1/6° resolution. The system is forced by ECMWF winds at 1/8°. Refraction due to surface currents is accounted by the system which assimilates altimeter along-track significant wave height observations. On a daily basis, it provides 1-day analysis and 5-day forecast hourly wave parameters. Currently, wave buoy observations of significant wave height and mean wave period along with satellite observations are used to calibrate and validate the Med-waves modelling system.

Description: Published

Description: Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: Reliable and timely information on the environmental conditions at sea is key to the safety of professional and recreational users as well as to the optimal execution of their activities. The possibility of users obtaining environmental information in due time and with adequate accuracy in the marine and coastal environment is defined as sea situational awareness (SSA). Without adequate information on the environmental meteorological and oceanographic conditions, users have a limited capacity to respond, which has led to loss of lives and to large environmental disasters with enormous consequent damage to the economy, society and ecosystems. Within the framework of the TESSA project, new SSA services for the Mediterranean Sea have been developed. In this paper we present SeaConditions, which is a web and mobile application for the provision of meteorological and oceanographic observation and forecasting products. Model forecasts and satellite products from operational services, such as ECMWF and CMEMS, can be visualized in SeaConditions. In addition, layers of information related to bathymetry, sea level and ocean-colour data (chl a and water transparency) are displayed. Ocean forecasts at high spatial resolutions are included in the version of SeaConditions presented here. SeaConditions provides a user-friendly experience with a fluid zoom capability, facilitating the appropriate display of data with different levels of detail. SeaConditions is a single point of access to interactive maps from different geophysical fields, providing high-quality information based on advanced oceanographic models. The SeaConditions services are available through both web and mobile applications. The web application is available at www.sea-conditions.com and is accessible and compatible with present-day browsers. Interoperability with GIS software is implemented. User feedback has been collected and taken into account in order to improve the service. The SeaConditions iOS and Android apps have been downloaded by more than 105 000 users to date (May 2016), and more than 100 000 users have visited the web version.

Description: Published

Description: 533-547

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: JCR Journal

Description: INGV

Description: Published

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: SANIFS (Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System) is a coastal-ocean operational system based on the unstructured grid finite-element three-dimensional hydrodynamic SHYFEM model, providing short-term forecasts. The operational chain is based on a downscaling approach starting from the large-scale system for the entire Mediterranean Basin (MFS, Mediterranean Forecasting System), which provides initial and boundary condition fields to the nested system. The model is configured to provide hydrodynamics and active tracer forecasts both in open ocean and coastal waters of southeastern Italy using a variable horizontal resolution from the open sea (3–4 km) to coastal areas (50–500 m). Given that the coastal fields are driven by a combination of both local (also known as coastal) and deep-ocean forcings propagating along the shelf, the performance of SANIFS was verified both in forecast and simulation mode, first (i) on the large and shelf-coastal scales by comparing with a large-scale survey CTD (conductivity–temperature–depth) in the Gulf of Taranto and then (ii) on the coastal-harbour scale (Mar Grande of Taranto) by comparison with CTD, ADCP (acoustic doppler current profiler) and tide gauge data. Sensitivity tests were performed on initialization conditions (mainly focused on spin-up procedures) and on surface boundary conditions by assessing the reliability of two alternative datasets at different horizontal resolution (12.5 and 6.5 km). The SANIFS forecasts at a lead time of 1 day were compared with the MFS forecasts, highlighting that SANIFS is able to retain the large-scale dynamics of MFS. The large-scale dynamics of MFS are correctly propagated to the shelf-coastal scale, improving the forecast accuracy (+17 % for temperature and +6 % for salinity compared to MFS). Moreover, the added value of SANIFS was assessed on the coastal-harbour scale, which is not covered by the coarse resolution of MFS, where the fields forecasted by SANIFS reproduced the observations well (temperature RMSE equal to 0.11 °C). Furthermore, SANIFS simulations were compared with hourly time series of temperature, sea level and velocity measured on the coastal-harbour scale, showing a good agreement. Simulations in the Gulf of Taranto described a circulation mainly characterized by an anticyclonic gyre with the presence of cyclonic vortexes in shelf-coastal areas. A surface water inflow from the open sea to Mar Grande characterizes the coastal-harbour scale.

Description: Published

Description: 45-59

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The Mediterranean Analysis and Forecasting System is a numerical ocean prediction system that operationally produces analyses and 10 days forecasts of the main physical parameters for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). The system is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) 2-way coupled with the third-generation wave model WW3 (WaveWatchIII) and forced by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric fields. The forecast initial conditions are produced by a 3D variational data assimilation system which considers a daily assimilation cycle of Sea Level Anomaly, vertical profiles of Temperature and Salinity from ARGO and ship CTDs and heat flux corrections with satellite SST. The system has been recently upgraded by increasing the grid resolution from 1/16 to 1/24 degree in the horizontal, thus becoming fully mesoscale resolving and from 72 to 141 vertical levels; by increasing the number of fresh water river inputs and by updating the data assimilation scheme. Additional developments will be implemented in the next release of the operational system (April 2019) by including an upgraded SST relaxation to satellite observations close to midnight and the implementation of the Dardanelles strait as a lateral open boundary condition. The focus of this work is to present the latest modeling system upgrades and the related improvements achieved by showing the model skill assessment including comparison with independent (insitu coastal moorings) and quasi-independent (insitu vertical profiles and satellite) datasets.

Description: Published

Description: Vienna

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service

Description: Published

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: This study investigates the climate sensitivity to a strong CO2 atmospheric forcing focusing on the North Atlantic Ocean (NA). The analysis is based on a set of 600 years long experiments performed with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model (CGCM) with the 1990 reference value of atmospheric CO2 multiplied by 4, 8 and 16. Extreme increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration have been applied to force the climate system towards stable states with different thermo-dynamical properties and analyze how the different resulting oceanic stratification and diffusion affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The AMOC weakens in response to the induced warming with distinctive features in the extreme case: a southward shift of convective sites and the formation of a density front at mid-latitudes. The analysis of the density fluxes reveals that NA loses density at high latitudes and gains it southward of 40°N mainly due to the haline contribution. Our results indicate that the most important processes that control the AMOC are active in the high latitudes and are related to the stability of the water column. The increased ocean stratification stabilizes the ocean interior leading to a decreased vertical diffusivity, a reduction in the formation of deep water and a weaker circulation. In particular, the deep convection collapses mainly in the Labrador Sea as a consequence of the water column stratification under high latitudes freshening.

Description: Published

Description: P0215

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Drift of floating debris is studied with a 2D Lagrangian model with stochastic beaching and sedimentation of plastics. An ensemble of 〉1010 virtual particles is tracked from anthropogenic sources (coastal human populations, rivers, shipping lanes) to environmental destinations (sea surface, coastlines, seabed). Daily analyses of ocean currents and waves provided by CMEMS at a horizontal resolution of 1/16° are used to force the plastics. High spatio-temporal variability in sea-surface plastic concentrations without any stable long-term accumulations is found. Substantial accumulation of plastics is detected on coastlines and the sea bottom. The most contaminated areas are in the Cilician subbasin, Catalan Sea, and near the Po River Delta. Also, highly polluted local patches in the vicinity of sources with limited circulation are identified. An inverse problem solution, used to quantify the origins of plastics, shows that plastic pollution of every Mediterranean country is caused primarily by its own terrestrial sources.

Description: Published

Description: 151-162

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: JCR Journal