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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: Probabilistic forecasting models describe the aleatory variability of natural systems as well as our epistemic uncertainty about how the systems work. Testing a model against observations exposes ontological errors in the representation of a system and its uncertainties. We clarify several conceptual issues regarding the testing of probabilistic forecasting models for ontological errors: the ambiguity of the aleatory/epistemic dichotomy, the quantification of uncertainties as degrees of belief, the interplay between Bayesian and frequentist methods, and the scientific pathway for capturing predictability. We show that testability of the ontological null hypothesis derives from an experimental concept, external to the model, that identifies collections of data, observed and not yet observed, that are judged to be exchange- able when conditioned on a set of explanatory variables. These conditional exchangeability judgments specify observations with well-defined frequencies. Any model predicting these behaviors can thus be tested for ontological error by frequentist methods; e.g., using P values. In the forecasting problem, prior predictive model checking, rather than posterior predictive checking, is desir- able because it provides more severe tests. We illustrate experi- mental concepts using examples from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Severe testing of a model under an appropriate set of experimental concepts is the key to model validation, in which we seek to know whether a model replicates the data-generating pro- cess well enough to be sufficiently reliable for some useful pur- pose, such as long-term seismic forecasting. Pessimistic views of system predictability fail to recognize the power of this method- ology in separating predictable behaviors from those that are not.
    Description: Published
    Description: 11973 – 11978
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Bayesian statistics ; testing hazard models ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Opera- tional earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time-dependent proba- bilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground-motion exceedance probabilities as well as short-term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long-term forecasts of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA).
    Description: Published
    Description: 955-959
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Operational earthquake forecasting ; seismic preparedness ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 109 (2004): B12302, doi:10.1029/2004JB003110.
    Description: A mid-ocean ridge transform fault (RTF) of length L, slip rate V, and moment release rate dot above M can be characterized by a seismic coupling coefficient χ = A E/A T, where A E ∼ dot above M/V is an effective seismic area and A T ∝ L 3/2 V −1/2 is the area above an isotherm T ref. A global set of 65 RTFs with a combined length of 16,410 km is well described by a linear scaling relation (1) A E ∝ A T, which yields χ = 0.15 ± 0.05 for T ref = 600°C. Therefore about 85% of the slip above the 600°C isotherm must be accommodated by subseismic mechanisms, and this slip partitioning does not depend systematically on either V or L. RTF seismicity can be fit by a truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution with a slope β = 2/3 in which the cumulative number of events N 0 and the upper cutoff moment M C = μD C A C depend on A T. Data for the largest events are consistent with a self-similar slip scaling, D C ∝ A C 1/2, and a square root areal scaling (2) A C ∝ A T 1/2. If relations 1 and 2 apply, then moment balance requires that the dimensionless seismic productivity, ν0 ∝ inline equation 0/A T V, should scale as ν0 ∝ A T −1/4, which we confirm using small events. Hence the frequencies of both small and large earthquakes adjust with A T to maintain constant coupling. RTF scaling relations appear to violate the single-mode hypothesis, which states that a fault patch is either fully seismic or fully aseismic and thus implies A C ≤ A E. The heterogeneities in the stress distribution and fault structure responsible for relation 2 may arise from a thermally regulated, dynamic balance between the growth and coalescence of fault segments within a rapidly evolving fault zone.
    Description: M.B. was supported by a NSF Graduate Research Fellowship, a MIT Presidential Fellowship, and the WHOI DOEI Fellowship. This research was supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center. SCEC is funded by NSF Cooperative Agreement EAR-0106924 and USGS Cooperative Agreement 02HQAG0008.
    Keywords: Earthquakes ; Scaling relations ; Fault mechanics
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-09-03
    Description: Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability
    Description: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy Institute of Statistical Mathematics (ISM), Tokyo, Japan Swiss Seismological Service, Institute of Geophysics (ETH), Zürich, Switzerland
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Erice, Italy
    Description: open
    Keywords: Eartquake Predictability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-06-08
    Description: Although no deterministic and reliable earthquake precursor is known to date, we are steadily gaining insight into probabilistic forecasting that draws on space–time characteristics of earthquake clustering. Clustering-based models aiming to forecast earthquakes within the next 24 hours are under test in the global project ‘Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability’ (CSEP). The 2011 March 11 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan provides a unique opportunity to test the existing 1-day CSEP models against its unprecedentedly active aftershock sequence. The original CSEP experiment performs tests after the catalogue is finalized to avoid bias due to poor data quality. However, this study differs from this tradition and uses the preliminary catalogue revised and updated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is often incomplete but is immediately available. This study is intended as a first step towards operability-oriented earthquake forecasting in Japan. Encouragingly, at least one model passed the test in most combinations of the target day and the testing method, although the models could not take account of the megaquake in advance and the catalogue used for forecast generation was incomplete. However, it can also be seen that all models have only limited forecasting power for the period immediately after the quake. Our conclusion does not change when the preliminary JMAcatalogue is replaced by the finalized one, implying that the models perform stably over the catalogue replacement and are applicable to operational earthquake forecasting. However, we emphasize the need of further research on model improvement to assure the reliability of forecasts for the days immediately after the main quake. Seismicity is expected to remain high in all parts of Japan over the coming years. Our results present a way to answer the urgent need to promote research on time-dependent earthquake predictability to prepare for subsequent large earthquakes in the near future in Japan.
    Description: Published
    Description: 653-658
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Time-series analysis ; Probabilistic forecasting ; Seismicity and tectonics ; Computational seismology ; Statistical seismology ; Asia ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Inorganic chemistry 15 (1976), S. 1810-1814 
    ISSN: 1520-510X
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Inorganic chemistry 19 (1980), S. 2551-2556 
    ISSN: 1520-510X
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Copenhagen : International Union of Crystallography (IUCr)
    Applied crystallography online 5 (1972), S. 248-249 
    ISSN: 1600-5767
    Source: Crystallography Journals Online : IUCR Backfile Archive 1948-2001
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Preparation method, lattice parameters and powder data are given. Space group Ama2 was confirmed and and x and y atomic parameters were determined from Weissenberg photographs.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Copenhagen : International Union of Crystallography (IUCr)
    Acta crystallographica 31 (1975), S. 669-672 
    ISSN: 1600-5740
    Source: Crystallography Journals Online : IUCR Backfile Archive 1948-2001
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Copenhagen : International Union of Crystallography (IUCr)
    Acta crystallographica 17 (1964), S. 777-778 
    ISSN: 0001-5520
    Source: Crystallography Journals Online : IUCR Backfile Archive 1948-2001
    Topics: Geosciences
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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