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  • 1
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    Global climate patterns explain range-wide synchronicity in survival of a migratory seabird (2009)
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2008. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons, for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Change Biology 15 (2009): 268-279, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01715.x.
    Description: To predict the impact of climate change over the whole species distribution range, comparison of adult survival variations over large spatial scale is of primary concern for long-lived species populations that are particularly susceptible to decline if adult survival is reduced. In this study, we estimated and compared adult survival rates between 1989 and 1997 of six populations of Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris diomedea) spread across 4600 km using capture-recapture models. We showed that mean annual adult survival rates are different among populations along a longitudinal gradient and between sexes. Variation in adult survival is synchronized among populations, with three distinct groups: (1) both females and males of Corsica, Tremiti and Selvagem (annual survival range 0.88-0.96); (2) both females and males of Frioul and females from Crete (0.82-0.92); and (3) both females and males of Malta and males from Crete (0.74-0.88). The total variation accounted for by the common pattern of variation is on average 71%, suggesting strong environmental forcing. At least 61% of the variation in survival is explained by the Southern Oscillation Index fluctuations. We suggested that Atlantic hurricanes and storms during La Niña years may increase adult mortality for Cory’s shearwater during winter months. For long-lived seabird species, variation in adult survival is buffered against environmental variability, although extreme climate conditions such as storms significantly affect adult survival. The effect of climate at large spatial scales on adult survival during the non-breeding period may lead to synchronization of variation in adult survival over the species’ range and have large effects on the meta-population trends. One can thus worry about the future of such long-lived seabirds species under the predictions of higher frequency of extreme large scale climatic events.
    Keywords: Adult survival ; Capture-recapture models ; Synchrony ; Climate ; Southern Oscillation ; Cory’s shearwater ; Calonectris diomedea
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 2
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    Impacts of climate change on avian populations (2013)
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2013. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Change Biology 19 (2013): 2036-2057, doi:10.1111/gcb.12195.
    Description: This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of climate-population processes, along with improved long-term data, are merged into coherent projections of future population responses to climate change. This approach can be applied to any species, but this review illustrates its bene t using birds as examples. Birds are one of the best-studied groups and a large number of studies have de- tected climate impacts on vital rates (i.e. life history traits, such as survival, matura- tion, or breeding, a ecting changes in population size and composition) and population abundance. These studies reveal multifaceted e ects of climate with direct, indirect, time- lagged and non-linear e ects. However, few studies integrate these e ects into a climate-dependent population model to understand the respective role of climate vari- ables and their components (mean state, variability, extreme) on population dynamics. To quantify how populations cope with climate change impacts, I introduce a new universal variable: the \population robustness to climate change." The comparison of such robustness, along with prospective and retrospective analysis may help to identify the major climate threats and characteristics of threatened avian species. Finally, studies projecting avian population responses to future climate change predicted by IPCC-class climate models are rare. Population projections hinge on selecting a multi-climate model ensemble at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales and integrating both radiative forcing and internal variability in climate with fully speci ed uncertainties in both demographic and climate processes.
    Description: This research was supported by the Grayce B. Kerr Fund and the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists, as well as by a grant from the Ocean Life Institute at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
    Keywords: IPCC ; Extreme events ; Climatic niche ; Stochastic population projection ; Extinction ; Uncertainties
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 3
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    Strong sea surface cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and implications for Galápagos Penguin conservation (2015)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 6432–6437, doi:10.1002/2015GL064456.
    Description: The Galápagos is a flourishing yet fragile ecosystem whose health is particularly sensitive to regional and global climate variations. The distribution of several species, including the Galápagos Penguin, is intimately tied to upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water along the western shores of the archipelago. Here we show, using reliable, high-resolution sea surface temperature observations, that the Galápagos cold pool has been intensifying and expanding northward since 1982. The linear cooling trend of 0.8°C/33 yr is likely the result of long-term changes in equatorial ocean circulation previously identified. Moreover, the northward expansion of the cold pool is dynamically consistent with a slackening of the cross-equatorial component of the regional trade winds—leading to an equatorward shift of the mean position of the Equatorial Undercurrent. The implied change in strength and distribution of upwelling has important implications for ongoing and future conservation measures in the Galápagos.
    Description: K.B.K. acknowledges support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the James E. and Barbara V. Moltz Fellowship administered by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Ocean and Climate Change Institute (OCCI), and the National Science Foundation (NSF) Physical Oceanography program (grant OCE–1233282). S.J. acknowledges support from WHOI. C.W.B. was supported by the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research.
    Description: 2016-02-06
    Keywords: Upwelling ; Conservation ; Penguins ; Galapagos ; Ocean circulation ; Climate
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
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    Extreme climate events and individual heterogeneity shape life-history traits and population dynamics (2015)
    Ecological Society of America
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Monographs 85 (2015): 605–624, doi:10.1890/14-1834.1.
    Description: Extreme climatic conditions and their ecological impacts are currently emerging as critical features of climate change. We studied extreme sea ice condition (ESIC) and found it impacts both life-history traits and population dynamics of an Antarctic seabird well beyond ordinary variability. The Southern Fulmar (Fulmarus glacialoides) is an ice-dependent seabird, and individuals forage near the ice edge. During an extreme unfavorable year (when sea ice area is reduced and distance between ice edge and colony is high), observed foraging trips were greater in distance and duration. As a result, adults brought less food to their chicks, which fledged in the poorest body condition. During such unfavorable years, breeding success was extremely low and population growth rate (λ) was greatly reduced. The opposite pattern occurred during extreme favorable years. Previous breeding status had a strong influence on life-history traits and population dynamics, and their responses to extreme conditions. Successful breeders had a higher chance of breeding and raising their chick successfully during the following breeding season as compared to other breeding stages, regardless of environmental conditions. Consequently, they coped better with unfavorable ESIC. The effect of change in successful breeder vital rates on λ was greater than for other stages' vital rates, except for pre-breeder recruitment probabilities, which most affected λ. For environments characterized by ordinary sea ice conditions, interindividual differences were more likely to persist over the life of individuals and randomness in individual pathways was low, suggesting individual heterogeneity in vital rates arising from innate or acquired phenotypic traits. Additionally, unfavorable ESIC tended to exacerbate individual differences in intrinsic quality, expressed through differences in reproductive status. We discuss the strong effects of ESIC on Southern Fulmar life-history traits in an evolutionary context. ESICs strongly affect fitness components and act as potentially important agents of natural selection of life histories related to intrinsic quality and intermittent breeding. In addition, recruitment is a highly plastic trait that, if heritable, could have a critical role in evolution of life histories. Finally, we find that changes in the frequency of extreme events may strongly impact persistence of Southern Fulmar populations.
    Description: S. Jenouvrier acknowledges support from Ocean Life Institute and WHOI Unrestricted funds, and NSF projects #1257545 and #1246407.
    Keywords: Body condition ; Foraging behaviors ; Fulmarus glacialoides ; Individual quality ; Individual stochasticity ; Life-history trade-offs ; Sea ice ; Sensitivities ; Southern Fulmar ; Stochastic population growth ; Terre Adelie, East Antarctica
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
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    Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise (2017)
    Nature Publishing Group
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 832, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0.
    Description: Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adélie penguin abundance data (1982–2015) in the Antarctic, covering 〉95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide “year effects” strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adélie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes.
    Description: H.J.L., C.C.-C., G.H., C.Y., and K.T.S. gratefully acknowledge funding provided by US National Aeronautics and Space Administration Award No. NNX14AC32G and U.S. National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Award No. NSF/OPP-1255058. S.J., L.L., M.M.H., Y.L., and R.J. gratefully acknowledge funding provided by US National Aeronautics and Space Administration Award No. NNX14AH74G. H.J.L., C.Y., S.J., Y.L., and R.J. gratefully acknowledge funding provided by U.S. National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Award No. NSF/PLR-1341548. S.J. gratefully acknowledges support from the Dalio Explore Fund.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
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    Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long‐lived seabird (2018)
    John Wiley & Sons
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Animal Ecology 87 (2018): 906-920, doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12827.
    Description: Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long‐lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black‐browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: “Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?” We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry‐over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at‐sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre‐breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry‐over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demographic rates across the complete life cycle.
    Description: NSF Grant Number: OPP‐1246407; European Research Council Advanced Grant Grant Numbers: ERC‐2012‐ADG_20120314, 322989
    Keywords: Birds ; Climate change ; Foraging behaviours ; Non‐breeding season ; Phenotypic traits ; Pre‐breeding season ; Timing of breeding ; Wing length
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
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    Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (2011)
    Ecological Society of America
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Monographs 80 (2010): 49–66, doi:10.1890/08-2289.1.
    Description: We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 2°C warming (2025–2052) and the projected changes to sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds, precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennial-scale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response over a continuum of rather complex, meso- to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale output projects a marked narrowing of penguins' zoogeographic range at the 2°C point. Colonies north of 70° S are projected to decrease or disappear: 50% of Emperor colonies (40% of breeding population) and 75% of Adélie colonies (70% of breeding population), but limited growth might occur south of 73° S. Net change would result largely from positive responses to increase in polynya persistence at high latitudes, overcome by decreases in pack ice cover at lower latitudes and, particularly for Emperors, ice thickness. Adélie Penguins might colonize new breeding habitat where concentrated pack ice diverges and/or disintegrating ice shelves expose coastline. Limiting increase will be decreased persistence of pack ice north of the Antarctic Circle, as this species requires daylight in its wintering areas. Adélies would be affected negatively by increasing snowfall, predicted to increase in certain areas owing to intrusions of warm, moist marine air due to changes in the Polar Jet Stream.
    Description: This project was funded by the World Wildlife Fund and the National Science Foundation, NSF grant OPP-0440643 (D. G. Ainley), and a Marie-Curie Fellowship to S. Jenouvrier.
    Keywords: Adelie penguin ; Antarctica ; Climate change ; Climate modeling ; Emperor Penguin ; Habitat optimum ; Sea ice ; 2°C warming
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
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    Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology 98 (2017): 940-951, doi:10.1002/ecy.1749.
    Description: Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.
    Description: Funding to H. J. Lynch and C. Youngflesh was provided by the National Science Foundation Grant OPP/GSS 1255058, to S. Jenouvrier, H. J. Lynch, C. Youngflesh, Y. Li, and R. Ji by the National Science Foundation Grant 1341474, to S. Jenouvrier, Y. Li, and R. Ji by NASA grant NNX14AH74G, to D. G. Ainley, G. Ballard, and K. M. Dugger by the National Science Foundation Grants OPP 9526865, 9814882, 0125608, 0944411 and 0440643, to P. O’B. Lyver by New Zealand’s Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment Grants C09X0510 and C01X1001, and Ministry of Primary Industry grants with logistic support from Antarctica New Zealand.
    Keywords: Anna Karenina Principle ; Antarctica ; Asynchrony ; Bayesian hierarchical model ; Climate change ; Phenology ; Pygoscelis adeliae ; Quantile regression
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
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    Fathers matter : male body mass affects life-history traits in a size-dimorphic seabird (2017)
    The Royal Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the Royal Soceity B Biological Sciences 284 (2017): 20170397, doi:10.1098/rspb.2017.0397.
    Description: One of the predicted consequences of climate change is a shift in body mass distributions within animal populations. Yet body mass, an important component of the physiological state of an organism, can affect key life-history traits and consequently population dynamics. Over the past decades, the wandering albatross—a pelagic seabird providing bi-parental care with marked sexual size dimorphism—has exhibited an increase in average body mass and breeding success in parallel with experiencing increasing wind speeds. To assess the impact of these changes, we examined how body mass affects five key life-history traits at the individual level: adult survival, breeding probability, breeding success, chick mass and juvenile survival. We found that male mass impacted all traits examined except breeding probability, whereas female mass affected none. Adult male survival increased with increasing mass. Increasing adult male mass increased breeding success and mass of sons but not of daughters. Juvenile male survival increased with their chick mass. These results suggest that a higher investment in sons by fathers can increase their inclusive fitness, which is not the case for daughters. Our study highlights sex-specific differences in the effect of body mass on the life history of a monogamous species with bi-parental care.
    Description: This study is supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation project grant no. 31003A_146445 and the ERC Starting Grant no. 337785 to A.O., and is a contribution to the Program EARLYLIFE funded by an ERC Advanced Grant under the European Community’s Seven Framework Program FP7/2007-2013 (ERC- 2012-ADG_20120314 to H.W.). The long-term demographic study at Crozet was supported by the French Polar Institute IPEV (programme no. 109 to H.W.). S.J. acknowledges support from NSF project no.1246407.
    Keywords: Wandering albatross ; B-parental care ; Sexual dimorphism ; Survival ; Reproduction
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
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    Mating behavior, population growth, and the operational sex ratio : a periodic two‐sex model approach (2010)
    University of Chicago Press
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © University of Chicago, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of University of Chicago for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in American Naturalist 175 (2010): 739-752, doi:10.1086/652436.
    Description: We present a new approach to modeling two‐sex populations, using periodic, nonlinear two‐sex matrix models. The models project the population growth rate, the population structure, and any ratio of interest (e.g., operational sex ratio). The periodic formulation permits inclusion of highly seasonal behavioral events. A periodic product of the seasonal matrices describes annual population dynamics. The model is nonlinear because mating probability depends on the structure of the population. To study how the vital rates influence population growth rate, population structure, and operational sex ratio, we used sensitivity analysis of frequency‐dependent nonlinear models. In nonlinear two‐sex models the vital rates affect growth rate directly and also indirectly through effects on the population structure. The indirect effects can sometimes overwhelm the direct effects and are revealed only by nonlinear analysis. We find that the sensitivity of the population growth rate to female survival is negative for the emperor penguin, a species with highly seasonal breeding behavior. This result could not occur in linear models because changes in population structure have no effect on per capita reproduction. Our approach is applicable to ecological and evolutionary studies of any species in which males and females interact in a seasonal environment.
    Description: H.C. acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (DEB-0343820 and DEB-0816514) and the Ocean Life Institute and the hospitality of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.
    Keywords: Two‐sex periodic matrix model ; Population structure ; Population growth rate ; Mating systems ; Sex ratio ; Emperor penguin
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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