Keywords:
Sustainable development.
;
Electronic books.
Description / Table of Contents:
This volume offers a survey and analysis of efforts to develop actionable climate information in support of vital decisions for climate adaptation, risk management and policy. It identifies research priorities from seasons to decades and longer time scales.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
Pages:
1 online resource (506 pages)
Edition:
1st ed.
ISBN:
9789400766921
URL:
https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/geomar/detail.action?docID=1317504
DDC:
333.714
Language:
English
Note:
Intro -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Contributors -- The World Climate Research Program Strategy and Priorities: Next Decade -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Evolution of WCRP Research Mandate -- 3 Future Plans and Priorities of WCRP Major Sponsors -- 4 Overview of Following Chapters -- 5 Summary -- References -- Challenges of a Sustained Climate Observing System -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Current Climate Observing System -- 2.1 Status of Systematic Climate Observations -- 2.2 Building a System for Climate Observations -- 2.3 Developing Operational Components -- 3 Lost in Space: Climate Observations? -- 3.1 Current and Programmed Satellite Observations -- 3.2 Adequacy of In-Situ Observations -- 3.3 The Scope of the Challenge of Satellite Observations: Adequacy and Issues -- 3.3.1 The Missing Satellite Observing System Principles -- 3.3.2 Delays and Cost Increases -- 3.4 Decadal Change Accuracy: Unbroken Chain of Uncertainty to SI Standards -- 3.4.1 Accuracy and SI Standards -- 3.4.2 Stability of Observations and Algorithms -- 3.4.3 Accuracy -- 3.5 Improving Transitions Between Observing Systems -- 3.6 How to Prioritize? -- 4 Analyses, Assessments and Reprocessing -- 4.1 Reanalyses -- 4.2 Assessments -- 5 Further Needed Improvements -- 5.1 In Situ Observations -- 5.2 Data Documentation and Adequacy of Metadata -- 5.3 Tracking Climate Observing Performance -- 5.4 Climate Observations at High Risk -- 6 Appendix A: The GCOS Organizational Framework -- References -- On the Reprocessing and Reanalysis of Observations for Climate -- 1 Reprocessing Observations -- 1.1 Data Recovery and Archiving -- 1.2 Data Set Creation and Evaluation -- 1.3 Recommendations -- 2 Reanalysis of Observations -- 2.1 Current Status -- 2.2 Integrating Earth System Analyses -- 2.3 Reanalysis Input Observations -- 2.4 Recommendations -- 3 Future Directions.
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References -- Climate Processes: Clouds, Aerosols and Dynamics -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Recent Scientific Advances -- 2.1 Clouds and Convection -- 2.1.1 Boundary Layer Clouds and Dynamics -- 2.1.2 Deep Convection and Its Dynamical Coupling to Larger Scales -- 2.1.3 Microphysics -- 2.1.4 Trends, Variations and Feedbacks -- 2.2 Aerosols and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions -- 2.2.1 Sources, Ageing and Sinks of Aerosols in the Atmosphere -- 2.2.2 Direct and Indirect Radiative Effects of Aerosols on Climate -- 2.2.3 Microphysical Effects of Aerosols on Precipitation and Vice Versa -- 2.2.4 Advances in Parameterizing Aerosols -- 2.3 Dynamics from Small to Global Scales -- 2.3.1 Gravity Waves -- 2.3.2 Blocking Events -- 2.3.3 Widening of the Tropics -- 2.3.4 Impact of the Stratosphere on the Large-Scale Circulation -- 2.3.5 Impact of Warming on Rainfall Extremes, Cyclones, and Severe Storms -- 3 Current Scientific Gaps and Open Questions -- 3.1 Clouds and Convection -- 3.2 Aerosols and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions -- 3.3 Dynamics from Small to Global Scales -- 4 Strategic Opportunities and Recommendations -- 4.1 Research Foci, Strategies and Resources -- 4.1.1 Confront Two-Way Integration Across Scales -- 4.1.2 Emphasize Fundamental Science and Model Development -- 4.1.3 Explore Hierarchical Modeling Approaches -- 4.1.4 Integrate the Whole Atmosphere, Ocean and Surface -- 4.1.5 Plan for the High-Resolution Future -- 4.1.6 Bring Weather to Climate -- 4.1.7 Sustain and Improve Observations -- 4.2 Research Coordination -- 5 Summary -- References -- Aerosol Cloud-Mediated Radiative Forcing: Highly Uncertain and Opposite Effects from Shallow and Deep Clouds -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Aerosol-Induced Radiative Forcing by Boundary-Layer Warm Clouds -- 2.1 The Fundamental Physical Processes -- 2.2 Aerosol Effects on Non-precipitating and Modestly Precipitating Clouds.
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2.3 Aerosol Effects on the Transition to Precipitating Clouds -- 2.4 The Frequency of Occurrence of Aerosol-Starved Cloud Regimes -- 2.5 The Attribution of the Regime Changes to Anthropogenic Aerosols -- 2.6 The Possible Underestimation of the Radiative Forcing Via Low Clouds -- 3 Aerosol Induced Radiative Forcing by Deep Convective Clouds -- 3.1 Aerosol Invigoration of Deep Clouds in Warm and Moist Atmosphere -- 3.2 Aerosols Enhancing Detrainment of Ice and Vapor in the UTLS -- 4 Aerosol Induced Radiative Forcing by Supercooled Layer Clouds -- 5 Discussion and Implications for GCMs -- 6 What Should We Do Next? -- 7 Summary -- References -- Improving Understanding of the Global Hydrologic Cycle -- 1 Introduction: The Challenge -- 2 Current WCRP Efforts -- 3 Improve Collection of Hydrological and Water System Data -- 3.1 Ground-Based, In-Situ Observations -- 3.2 Remotely Sensed Observations -- 3.3 Managing Data -- 4 Modeling -- 5 Hydrological Sciences Needs for the Twenty-First Century in the Earth System Context -- 5.1 Climate, Water, and Social Adaptation -- 5.2 Water, Energy, Agricultural Nexus -- 5.3 Water Quality and Ecosystems -- 6 A Grand Challenge in Hydrologic and Water-Resources Modeling -- 7 Conclusions -- References -- Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Impacts on Hydroclimate, Ecosystems and Society -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Land Use Change and Hydroclimate -- 3 Land Use Change and Ecosystems -- 4 Societal Needs for Research on Water Over Land -- 5 Current Gaps, and Future Challenges -- 6 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Prediction from Weeks to Decades -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Sub-seasonal Prediction -- 2.1 Madden Julian Oscillation -- 2.2 Other Sources of Sub-seasonal Predictability -- 3 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction -- 3.1 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- 3.2 Tropical Atlantic Variability.
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3.3 Tropical Indian Ocean Variability -- 3.4 Other Sources of Seasonal to Interannual Predictability -- 3.4.1 Upper Ocean Heat Content -- 3.4.2 Snow Cover -- 3.4.3 Stratosphere -- 3.4.4 Vegetation and Land Use -- 3.4.5 Polar Sea Ice -- 4 Decadal Prediction -- 4.1 Potential Sources of Decadal Predictability -- 4.1.1 External Forcing -- 4.1.2 Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability -- 4.1.3 Pacific Decadal Variability -- 4.1.4 Other Sources of Decadal Predictability -- 4.2 Achievements So Far -- 5 Summary -- 5.1 Improving the Fidelity of the Climate Models at the Heart of Forecast Systems -- 5.2 Developing More Sophisticated Measures of Defining and Verifying Forecast Reliability and Skill for the Different Lead Times -- 5.3 Design of Ensemble Prediction Systems -- 5.4 Utility of Monthly to Decadal Predictions -- References -- Assessing the Reliability of Climate Models, CMIP5 -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Implications (and Usefulness) of Model Spread -- 3 New Observations and Diagnostics -- 4 Examples of Process Evaluations Currently in Progress -- 5 Summary and Recommendations for WCRP -- References -- Changes in Variability Associated with Climate Change -- 1 Introduction -- 2 How Do Changes in Greenhouse Gases and Solar and Orbital Parameters Impact the Tropics? -- 2.1 ENSO -- 2.2 Width of the Tropics -- 3 How Does Climate Change Impact Middle and High Latitudes? -- 3.1 The Northern Annular Mode and Related Latitudinal Shifts of the Eddy-Driven Jet -- 3.2 The Southern Annular Mode -- 3.3 Sea Ice and Associated Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations -- 4 How Do Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Changes Interact with Ozone Depletion? -- 5 Summary -- References -- Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Regional Perspectives -- 2.1 Asian-Australian Monsoons.
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2.1.1 Regional Variability and Predictability -- 2.1.2 Long-Term Trends and Projections -- 2.2 American Monsoon Systems -- 2.2.1 Regional Variability and Predictability -- 2.2.2 Long-Term Trends and Projections -- 2.3 Sub-Saharan Africa -- 2.3.1 Regional Variability and Predictability -- 2.3.2 Long-Term Trends and Projections -- 3 Regional Climate Simulation -- 3.1 Regionalization Needs -- 3.2 Coordinated Downscaling Exercises -- 4 Challenges in Monsoon Simulation and Prediction -- 4.1 Large to Regional Scale Processes Influencing Monsoon Variability and Predictability -- 4.2 Key Local to Regional Processes Influencing Monsoon Variability and Predictability -- 4.2.1 Surface Heterogeneity -- 4.2.2 Diurnal Cycle -- 4.2.3 Low Level Jets -- 4.2.4 Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling -- 5 Challenges in Generating Actionable Regional Climate Information -- 6 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Attribution of Weather and Climate-Related Events -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Relevance of Attribution Assessments of Weather and Climate-Related Events -- 2.1 Improved Climate Science -- 2.2 General Public -- 2.3 Litigation -- 2.4 Adaptation -- 2.5 Geoengineering -- 2.6 Insurance -- 3 Development of Event Attribution -- 4 Examples of Event Attribution for Specific Cases -- 4.1 2003 Central European Summer Temperatures -- 4.2 2000 UK Floods -- 4.3 2008 Cool US -- 4.4 2010 Russian Heatwave -- 5 Attribution of Climate-Related Events Group -- 6 Development of Near-Real Time Weather and Climate Event Attribution -- 6.1 Coupled Model Approaches -- 6.2 Very Large Ensembles Using Distributed Computing Experiments -- 6.3 Analogue Methods for Diagnosing the Influence of Circulation Characteristics -- 6.4 A Near-Real Time Attribution Capability Linked to Seasonal Forecasting -- 7 Discussion: Lessons Learned and Future Research Needs -- References.
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Climate Extremes: Challenges in Estimating and Understanding Recent Changes in the Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Climate and Weather Events.
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