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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-09-07
    Description: Derive the user-relevant indicators defined in Milestone MS7 from the ensemble of ECMWF and CMCC seasonal forecasts systems contributing to C3S
    Type: Report , NonPeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/book
    Format: text
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-09-07
    Description: Assess the seasonal forecast skill of selected ocean variables - SST, OHC300m, and SSH - from the ensemble of ECMWF and CMCC seasonal forecasts systems contributing to C3S
    Type: Report , NonPeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/book
    Format: text
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-11-04
    Description: Derive the user-relevant indicators defined in Milestone MS7 from the ensemble of ECMWF and CMCC seasonal forecasts systems contributing to C3S
    Type: Report , NonPeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/book
    Format: text
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-11-04
    Description: Assess the seasonal forecast skill of selected ocean variables - SST, OHC300m, and SSH - from the ensemble of ECMWF and CMCC seasonal forecasts systems contributing to C3S
    Type: Report , NonPeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/book
    Format: text
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-11-04
    Description: This document demonstrates the capability of seasonal forecasting systems to predict observable and user-relevant ocean climate indicators.
    Type: Report , NonPeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/book
    Format: text
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Subramanian, A. C., Balmaseda, M. A., Centurioni, L., Chattopadhyay, R., Cornuelle, B. D., DeMott, C., Flatau, M., Fujii, Y., Giglio, D., Gille, S. T., Hamill, T. M., Hendon, H., Hoteit, I., Kumar, A., Lee, J., Lucas, A. J., Mahadevan, A., Matsueda, M., Nam, S., Paturi, S., Penny, S. G., Rydbeck, A., Sun, R., Takaya, Y., Tandon, A., Todd, R. E., Vitart, F., Yuan, D., & Zhang, C. Ocean observations to improve our understanding, modeling, and forecasting of subseasonal-to-seasonal variability. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 427, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00427.
    Description: Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts have the potential to provide advance information about weather and climate events. The high heat capacity of water means that the subsurface ocean stores and re-releases heat (and other properties) and is an important source of information for S2S forecasts. However, the subsurface ocean is challenging to observe, because it cannot be measured by satellite. Subsurface ocean observing systems relevant for understanding, modeling, and forecasting on S2S timescales will continue to evolve with the improvement in technological capabilities. The community must focus on designing and implementing low-cost, high-value surface and subsurface ocean observations, and developing forecasting system capable of extracting their observation potential in forecast applications. S2S forecasts will benefit significantly from higher spatio-temporal resolution data in regions that are sources of predictability on these timescales (coastal, tropical, and polar regions). While ENSO has been a driving force for the design of the current observing system, the subseasonal time scales present new observational requirements. Advanced observation technologies such as autonomous surface and subsurface profiling devices as well as satellites that observe the ocean-atmosphere interface simultaneously can lead to breakthroughs in coupled data assimilation (CDA) and coupled initialization for S2S forecasts. These observational platforms should also be tested and evaluated in ocean observation sensitivity experiments with current and future generation CDA and S2S prediction systems. Investments in the new ocean observations as well as model and DA system developments can lead to substantial returns on cost savings from disaster mitigation as well as socio–economic decisions that use S2S forecast information.
    Description: AS was funded by NOAA Climate Variability and Prediction Program (NA14OAR4310276) and the NSF Earth System Modeling Program (OCE1419306). CD was funded by NA16OAR4310094. SG and DG were funded by NASA awards NNX14AO78G and 80NSSC19K0059. DY was supported by NSFC (91858204, 41720104008, and 41421005).
    Keywords: Subseasonal ; Seasonal ; Predictions ; Air-sea interaction ; Satellite ; Argo ; Gliders ; Drifters
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Todd, R. E., Chavez, F. P., Clayton, S., Cravatte, S., Goes, M., Greco, M., Ling, X., Sprintall, J., Zilberman, N., V., Archer, M., Aristegui, J., Balmaseda, M., Bane, J. M., Baringer, M. O., Barth, J. A., Beal, L. M., Brandt, P., Calil, P. H. R., Campos, E., Centurioni, L. R., Chidichimo, M. P., Cirano, M., Cronin, M. F., Curchitser, E. N., Davis, R. E., Dengler, M., deYoung, B., Dong, S., Escribano, R., Fassbender, A. J., Fawcett, S. E., Feng, M., Goni, G. J., Gray, A. R., Gutierrez, D., Hebert, D., Hummels, R., Ito, S., Krug, M., Lacan, F., Laurindo, L., Lazar, A., Lee, C. M., Lengaigne, M., Levine, N. M., Middleton, J., Montes, I., Muglia, M., Nagai, T., Palevsky, H., I., Palter, J. B., Phillips, H. E., Piola, A., Plueddemann, A. J., Qiu, B., Rodrigues, R. R., Roughan, M., Rudnick, D. L., Rykaczewski, R. R., Saraceno, M., Seim, H., Sen Gupta, A., Shannon, L., Sloyan, B. M., Sutton, A. J., Thompson, L., van der Plas, A. K., Volkov, D., Wilkin, J., Zhang, D., & Zhang, L. Global perspectives on observing ocean boundary current systems. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2010); 423, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00423.
    Description: Ocean boundary current systems are key components of the climate system, are home to highly productive ecosystems, and have numerous societal impacts. Establishment of a global network of boundary current observing systems is a critical part of ongoing development of the Global Ocean Observing System. The characteristics of boundary current systems are reviewed, focusing on scientific and societal motivations for sustained observing. Techniques currently used to observe boundary current systems are reviewed, followed by a census of the current state of boundary current observing systems globally. The next steps in the development of boundary current observing systems are considered, leading to several specific recommendations.
    Description: RT was supported by The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research at WHOI. FC was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. MGo was funded by NSF and NOAA/AOML. XL was funded by China’s National Key Research and Development Projects (2016YFA0601803), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41490641, 41521091, and U1606402), and the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (2017ASKJ01). JS was supported by NOAA’s Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program (Award NA15OAR4320071). DZ was partially funded by the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA15OAR4320063. BS was supported by IMOS and CSIRO’s Decadal Climate Forecasting Project. We gratefully acknowledge the wide range of funding sources from many nations that have enabled the observations and analyses reviewed here.
    Keywords: Western boundary current systems ; Eastern boundary current systems ; Ocean observing systems ; Time series ; Autonomous underwater gliders ; Drifters ; Remote sensing ; Moorings
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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