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  • 1
    In: Fish and Fisheries, Wiley, Vol. 24, No. 4 ( 2023-07), p. 595-617
    Abstract: Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha , Salmonidae) are foundational to social‐ecological systems of the Northeast Pacific Rim and exhibit a rich diversity of life histories including in their adult migration timing, age at critical life‐history transitions and marine feeding distributions. In recent decades Chinook have experienced declines across much of their native range; however, changes in productivity and abundance have rarely been evaluated in relation to life‐history variation. To understand trends in Chinook salmon production, and how they are related to life history, we compiled time series data from the Fraser River to the Sacramento River on total run size (pre‐fishery abundance) and escapement (post‐fishery spawner abundance) and fit time series models to estimate trends across this bioregion. Our analysis revealed that most Chinook populations are declining, with negative trends in escapement (57 of 79) and total run (16 of 23) size. Trends were most acutely negative for interior spring Chinook in the Fraser, Columbia and Snake Rivers and most populations in California. Summer and fall Chinook had mixed trends, with several summer and fall upriver bright populations in the interior Columbia and Fraser exhibiting increases in abundance from the 1990s to 2019. Our research reveals widespread declines of this important species, but local complexity in trends that are mediated by population‐level life history, migratory behaviours and watershed‐scale restoration actions. Understanding linkages between life histories and resilience should inform rebuilding efforts for Chinook salmon and highlight the need to conserve intraspecific biodiversity.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1467-2960 , 1467-2979
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2023
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    SSG: 21,3
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Canadian Science Publishing ; 2023
    In:  Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Vol. 80, No. 4 ( 2023-04-01), p. 648-662
    In: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Canadian Science Publishing, Vol. 80, No. 4 ( 2023-04-01), p. 648-662
    Abstract: Fish in all the world's oceans exhibit variable body size and growth over time, with some populations exhibiting long-term declines in size. These patterns can be caused by a range of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic factors and impact the productivity of harvested populations. Within a given species, individuals often exhibit a range of life history strategies that may cause some groups to be buffered against change. One of the most studied declines in size-at-age has been in populations of salmon; Chinook salmon in the Northeast Pacific Ocean are the largest-bodied salmon species and have experienced long-term declines in size. Using long-term monitoring data, we develop novel size and growth models to link observed changes in Chinook size to life history traits and environmental variability. Our results identify three distinct trends in size across the 48 stocks in our study. Differences among populations are correlated with ocean distribution, migration timing, and freshwater residence. We provide evidence that trends are driven by interannual variation in certain oceanographic processes and competition with pink salmon.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0706-652X , 1205-7533
    Language: English
    Publisher: Canadian Science Publishing
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7966-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1473089-3
    SSG: 21,3
    SSG: 12
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  • 3
    In: Ecological Applications, Wiley, Vol. 29, No. 4 ( 2019-06)
    Abstract: Ecologists are pressed to understand how climate constrains the timings of annual biological events (phenology). Climate influences on phenology are likely significant in estuarine watersheds because many watersheds provide seasonal fish nurseries where juvenile presence is synched with favorable conditions. While ecologists have long recognized that estuaries are generally important to juvenile fish, we incompletely understand the specific ecosystem dynamics that contribute to their nursery habitat value, limiting our ability to identify and protect vital habitat components. Here we examined the annual timing of juvenile coldwater fish migrating through a seasonally warm, hydrologically managed watershed. Our goal was to (1) understand how climate constrained the seasonal timing of water conditions necessary for juvenile fish to use nursery habitats and (2) inform management decisions about (a) mitigating climate‐mediated stress on nursery habitat function and (b) conserving heat‐constrained species in warming environments. Cool, wet winters deposited snow and cold water into mountains and reservoirs, which kept the lower watershed adequately cool for juveniles through the spring despite the region approaching its hot, dry summers. For every 1°C waters in April were colder, the juvenile fish population (1) inhabited the watershed 4–7 d longer and (2) entered marine waters, where survival is size selective, at maximum sizes 2.1 mm larger. Climate therefore appeared to constrain the nursery functions of this system by determining seasonal windows of tolerable rearing conditions, and cold water appeared to be a vital ecosystem component that promoted juvenile rearing. Fish in this system inhabit the southernmost extent of their range and already rear during the coolest part of the year, suggesting that a warming climate will truncate rather than shift their annual presence. Our findings are concerning for coldwater diadromous species in general because warming climates may constrain watershed use and diminish viability of life histories (e.g., late springtime rearing) and associated portfolio benefits over the long term. Lower watershed nurseries for coldwater fish in warming climates may be enhanced through allocating coldwater reservoir releases to prolong juvenile rearing periods downstream or restorations that facilitate colder conditions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1051-0761 , 1939-5582
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2010123-5
    SSG: 12
    SSG: 23
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  • 4
    In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 77, No. 4 ( 2020-07-01), p. 1503-1515
    Abstract: Preseason abundance forecasts drive management of US West Coast salmon fisheries, yet little is known about how environmental variability influences forecast performance. We compared forecasts of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) against returns for (i) key California-Oregon ocean fishery stocks and (ii) high priority prey stocks for endangered Southern Resident Killer Whales (Orcinus orca) in Puget Sound, Washington. We explored how well environmental indices (at multiple locations and time lags) explained performance of forecasts based on different methods (i.e. sibling-based, production-based, environment-based, or recent averages), testing for nonlinear threshold dynamics. For the California stocks, no index tested explained & gt;50% of the variation in forecast performance, but spring Pacific Decadal Oscillation and winter North Pacific Index during the year of return explained & gt;40% of the variation for the sibling-based Sacramento Fall Chinook forecast, with nonlinearity and apparent thresholds. This suggests that oceanic conditions experienced by adults (after younger siblings returned) have the most impact on sibling-based forecasts. For Puget Sound stocks, we detected nonlinear/threshold relationships explaining & gt;50% of the variation with multiple indices and lags. Environmental influences on preseason forecasts may create biases that render salmon fisheries management more or less conservative, and therefore could motivate the development of ecosystem-based risk assessments.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1095-9289
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2463178-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1468003-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 29056-7
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  • 5
    In: Fish and Fisheries, Wiley, Vol. 22, No. 3 ( 2021-05), p. 503-517
    Abstract: Species that migrate long distances or between distinct habitats— for example, anadromous or catadromous fish—experience the consequences of climate change in each habitat and are therefore particularly at risk in a changing world. Studies of anadromous species often focus on freshwater despite the ocean's disproportionate influence on survival and growth. To understand a prominent anadromous species’ response to ocean climate, we use a new spatio‐temporal model jointly estimating the ocean distribution of all major fall‐run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha , Salmonidae) stocks from California to British Columbia over 40 years. We model hundreds of millions of tagged individuals, finding that different stocks have fundamentally different ocean distributions, distinct associations with sea surface temperature (SST), and contrasting distributional responses to historical ocean SST variation. We show species‐level estimates of ocean distribution that ignore among‐stock variation will lead to errant predictions of spatial distribution. Using future (2030–2090) SST projections to model focal stocks of fisheries importance we predict substantial ocean redistribution in response to SST change. Predicted aggregate distributional changes do not follow a simple, poleward shift. Instead, we predict net movement into some ocean regions (British Columbia, central California) but net movement out of others (northern California, Washington). Distribution shifts have implications for both major fisheries and marine mammal predators of Chinook salmon. We focus on the consequences of spatial changes in ocean distribution, but our approach provides a general structure to link marine and freshwater components of anadromous species under climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1467-2960 , 1467-2979
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2021
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    SSG: 21,3
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  • 6
    In: Ecosphere, Wiley, Vol. 11, No. 12 ( 2020-12)
    Abstract: Ecology is often governed by nonlinear dynamics. Nonlinear ecological relationships can include thresholds—incremental changes in drivers that provoke disproportionately large ecological responses. Among the species that experience nonlinear and threshold dynamics are Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.). These culturally, ecologically, and economically significant fishes are in many places declining and management focal points. Often, managers can influence or react to ecological conditions that salmon experience, suggesting that nonlinearities, especially thresholds, may provide opportunities to inform decisions. However, nonlinear dynamics are not always invoked in management decisions involving salmon. Here, we review reported nonlinearities and thresholds in salmon ecology, describe potential applications that scientists and managers could develop to leverage nonlinear dynamics, and offer a path toward decisions that account for ecological nonlinearities and thresholds to improve salmon outcomes. It appears that nonlinear dynamics are not uncommon in salmon ecology and that many management arenas may potentially leverage them to enable more effective or efficient decisions. Indeed, decisions guided by nonlinearities and thresholds may be particularly desirable considering salmon management arenas are often characterized by limited resources and mounting ecological stressors, practical constraints, and conservation challenges. More broadly, many salmon systems are data‐rich and there are an extensive range of ecological contexts in which salmon are sensitive to anthropogenic decisions. Approaches developed to leverage nonlinearities in salmon ecology may serve as examples that may inform analogous approaches in other systems and taxa.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2150-8925 , 2150-8925
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2572257-8
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  • 7
    In: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Canadian Science Publishing, Vol. 77, No. 9 ( 2020-09), p. 1487-1504
    Abstract: Fish face many anthropogenic stressors. Authorities in marine, estuarine, and freshwater realms often share interdependent fisheries management goals, but address singular stressors independently. Here, we present a case study suggesting that coordinating stressor relief across management realms may synergize conservation efforts, especially to actualize restoration benefits. Major efforts are underway to restore juvenile salmon habitat across California’s Central Valley landscape, but it is unclear how fisheries and flow management will influence juvenile salmon occupancy of restored sites. Leveraging monitoring data, we find that for juvenile salmon ( 〈 55 mm) to actualize benefits of restored habitats will likely require maintaining spawner abundances and flows at or above intermediate values, especially in less-connected portions of the landscape. Furthermore, restoration efforts may prioritize more connected regions to promote use of restored areas, considering that less connected areas are often uninhabited when water and spawners are scarcer. This ecosystem-based framework that evaluates interdependencies of management decisions may be applied to realize natural productivity and enhance conservation in many systems.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0706-652X , 1205-7533
    Language: English
    Publisher: Canadian Science Publishing
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7966-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1473089-3
    SSG: 21,3
    SSG: 12
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  • 8
    In: Global Change Biology, Wiley, Vol. 28, No. 7 ( 2022-04), p. 2183-2201
    Abstract: People seek reliable natural resources despite climate change. Diverse habitats and biologies stabilize productivity against disturbances like climate, prompting arguments to promote climate‐resilient resources by prioritizing complex, less‐modified ecosystems. These arguments hinge on the hypothesis that simplifying and degrading ecosystems will reduce resources’ climate resilience, a process liable to be cryptically evolving across landscapes and human generations, but rarely documented. Here, we examined the industrial era (post 1848) of California's Central Valley, chronicling the decline of a diversified, functional portfolio of salmon habitats and life histories and investigating for empirical evidence of lost climate resilience in its fishery. Present perspectives indicate that California's dynamic, warming climate overlaid onto its truncated, degraded habitat mosaic severely constrains its salmon fishery. We indeed found substantial climate constraints on today's fishery, but this reflected a shifted ecological baseline. During the early stages of a stressor legacy that transformed the landscape and ‐‐ often consequently ‐‐ compressed salmon life history expression, the fishery diffused impacts of dry years across a greater number of fishing years and depended less on cool spring‐summer transitions. The latter are important given today's salmon habitats, salmon life histories, and resource management practices, but are vanishing with climate change while year‐to‐year variation in fishery performance is rising. These findings give empirical weight to the idea that human legacies influence ecosystems’ climate resilience across landscapes and boundaries (e.g., land/sea). They also raise the question of whether some contemporary climate effects are recent and attributable not only to increasing climate stress, but to past and present human actions that erode resilience. In general, it is thus worth considering that management approaches that prioritize complex, less‐modified ecosystems may stabilize productivity despite increasing climate stress and such protective actions may be required for some ecological services to persist into uncertain climate futures.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1354-1013 , 1365-2486
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020313-5
    SSG: 12
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    California Digital Library (CDL) ; 2013
    In:  San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science Vol. 11, No. 4 ( 2013-12-22)
    In: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, California Digital Library (CDL), Vol. 11, No. 4 ( 2013-12-22)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1546-2366
    Uniform Title: Coded-Wire Tag Expansion Factors for Chinook Salmon Carcass Surveys in California: Estimating the Numbers and Proportions of Hatchery-Origin Fish
    URL: Issue
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: California Digital Library (CDL)
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2137640-2
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  • 10
    In: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, California Digital Library (CDL), Vol. 16, No. 1 ( 2018-4-16)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1546-2366 , 1546-2366
    Uniform Title: Central Valley Spring-Run Chinook Salmon and Ocean Fisheries: Data Availability and Management Possibilities
    URL: Issue
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: California Digital Library (CDL)
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2137640-2
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