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  • 11
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    The FESOM model family - recent applications (2017)
    In:  EPIC3IMUM 2017, Stanford, California, 2017-08-29-2017-09-01
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-09-15
    Description: This contribution focuses on two applications of the FESOM model family. On the one hand, recent runs with the finite volume code FESOM2 on large global meshes with regional focus are presented. FESOM's shallow water branch TsunAWI is the subject of the second part. TsunAWI, still based on finite elements, is used as an operational model in the Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS). InaTEWS derives tsunami forecasts in two different ways: from scenarios in a pre-computed database or from an on-the-fly simulation. The pre-computed scenarios are based on TsunAWI simulations with inundation on a triangular mesh with a resolution ranging from 20km in the deep ocean to 300m - 50m in coastal areas. The on-the-fly propagation model EasyWave (Andrey Babeyko, GFZ) solves the linear shallow water equations on a regular finite-difference grid with a resolution of about 1 km and the coast line as a vertical wall. EasyWave is used after a tsunami has been generated in an area not covered by the database or after seismic measurements show an earthquake mechanism not present in the database. As the numerical settings of both models are quite different, variations in the outputs are to be expected; nevertheless, the differences in the warning levels should not be too large for identical sources. In the current study, we systematically compare the warning products like estimated wave height and estimated time of arrival by the two approaches.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 12
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    Current status of TsunAWI contributions to the Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS) with a comparison of warning products from near-realtime easyWave and precomputed TsunAWI simulations (2018)
    In:  EPIC3UNESCO IOC Symposium: Advances in Tsunami Warning to Enhance Community Responses, Paris, 2018-02-12-2018-02-14
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-02-17
    Description: Abstract: The Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System delivers simulated tsunami forecasts in two different ways: either matching scenario(s) from a pre-computed database or running on-the-fly tsunami simulation. Recently, the database has been extended considerably taking into account additional source regions not covered in earlier stages of the system. In this contribution, we present the current status of the data base coverage as well as a study investigating the warning products obtained by the two modeling approaches. The pre-computed tsunami scenarios are based on the finite element model TsunAWI that employs a triangular mesh with resolution ranging from 20km in deep ocean to 300m in coastal areas and to as much as 50m in some highly resolved areas. TsunAWI solves the nonlinear shallow water equations and contains a wetting-drying inundation scheme. The on-the-fly propagation model easyWave solves the linear shallow water equations on a regular finite-difference grid with a resolution of about 1 km and utilizes several simple options to estimate coastal impact. This model is used for forecasting after a tsunami has been generated in an area not covered by the database or after a moment tensor solution shows an earthquake focal mechanism not present in the database. Since warning products like estimated wave height (EWH) and estimated time of arrival (ETA) along the coast are based on modeling results, it is crucial to compare the resulting forecasted warning levels obtained by the two approaches. Resolutions and numerical settings of both models are quite different, therefore variations in the resulting outputs are to be expected; nevertheless, the extent of differences in warning levels should not be too large for identical sources. In the present study, we systematically investigate differences in resulting warning products along InaTEWS forecast points facing the Sunda arc.  Whereas the finite-element mesh of TsunAWI covers the coast up to a terrain height of 50m and warning products have been pre-calculated directly in the forecast points, easyWave offers several options for their approximation including projections from offshore grid points or vertical wall. Differences and potential reasons for variations of warning products like the role of bathymetry resolution as well as the general approach for the assessment of EWH and ETA for different modeling frameworks are discussed.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 13
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    Tsunami-WebGIS - Displaying Tsunami Simulations for Indonesia to a Broader Audience (2018)
    In:  EPIC3AOGS EGU Joint Conference, Tagaytay, Philippines, 2018-02-04-2018-02-08
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-02-16
    Description: Within the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System project (GITEWS), a database containing approximately 4500 tsunami simulations for the Sunda arc, was created. Simulations were calculated using the finite element model TsunAWI implemented at AWI. The corresponding data products such as maximum wave height and estimated time of arrival at the coast are used operationally for tsunami early warning purposes. Visualization of tsunami simulation data in general and analyzing the information by non-modelers is nevertheless difficult, since accessing the data requires in depth knowledge on modeling with TsunAWI and specific programming libraries to be installed. However, it was intended to overcome this issue and provide an overview of the modeling efforts in Indonesia to a broader public. This was accomplished within the scope of the project Earth System Knowledge Platform (ESKP), initiated at institutions of the Helmholtz Association. Data products are visualized in the interactive Tsunami-WebGIS, a Geographical Information System (GIS) based web service, hosted on maps.awi.de, a GIS infrastructure implemented at AWI. The Tsunami-WebGIS provides an overview of the tsunami database and enables the user to trigger a tsunami at a certain epicenter and view the respective maximum wave heights as well as arrival time isochrones. This approach provides an overview of the simulation coverage and tsunami propagation in the the Sunda arc region to a non-expert audience. While it may be used for educational purposes, it has also proven to facilitate analysis by the modelers themselves. It is further planned to include extensions of the database in Indonesia as well as historical events in the region.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 14
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    Comparison of Modeling Approaches and Derived Warning Products in the Framework of the Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS) (2018)
    In:  EPIC3AOGS EGU Joint Conference, Tagaytay, Philippines, 2018-02-04-2018-02-08
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-02-22
    Description: The Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System estimates tsunami impact by two methods: either matching scenarios from a pre-computed database or running realtime tsunami simulations. The database scenarios are based on the finite element model TsunAWI using a triangular mesh with resolution ranging from 20km in deep ocean to 300m in coastal areas and up to 50m in some highly-resolved areas. TsunAWI solves the nonlinear shallow water equations and contains an inundation scheme. The on-the-fly propagation model easyWave solves the linear shallow water equations on a regular finite-difference grid with a resolution of about 1km and utilizes several options to estimate coastal impact. This model is used for potential tsunami events in areas not covered by the database. Warning products like estimated wave height (EWH) and estimated time of arrival (ETA) along the coast are based on modeling results. Therefore comparisons of the forecasted warning levels for the two approaches are crucial. Resolutions and numerical settings of both models differ, therefore variations in the resulting outputs are to be expected; nevertheless, the extent of differences in warning levels should not be too large for identical sources. In the present study, we systematically investigate differences in warning products along forecast points facing the Sunda arc. TsunAWI determines warning products are directly in the coastal forecast points, easyWave offers several options for their approximation including projections from offshore grid points. Differences and potential reasons for variations of warning products like the role of bathymetry, resolution as well as the general approach for the assessment of EWH and ETA for different modeling frameworks are discussed.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 15
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    NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18): online data of the Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Model for the NEAM Region from the TSUMAPS-NEAM project (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-10-01
    Description: European-Union Civil Protection Mechanism, DG-ECHO, Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26
    Description: Published
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Keywords: Europe ; NEAM ; Atlantic Ocean ; Mediterranean Sea ; Aegean Sea ; Marmara Sea ; Black Sea ; earthquake ; tsunami ; moment magnitude ; crustal fault ; subduction interface ; megathrust ; probabilistic hazard model ; natural hazard ; Disaster Risk Reduction ; 05.08. Risk ; 04.06. Seismology ; 03.02. Hydrology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: web product
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  • 16
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    Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications (2018)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-15
    Description: Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1158–1198
    Description: 5T. Modelli di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 17
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    NEAMTHM18 Documentation: the making of the TSUMAPS-NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-East Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected Seas (NEAM). In this online data product, the hazard results are provided by hazard curves calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI), distributed in the North-East Atlantic (1,076 POIs), the Mediterranean Sea (1,130 POIs), and the Black Sea (137 POIs) at an average spacing of ~20 km. For each POI, hazard curves are given for the mean, 2nd, 16th, 50th, 84th, and 98th percentiles. Maps derived from hazard curves are Probability maps for Maximum Inundation Heights (MIH) of 1, 2, 5, 10, 20 meters; Hazard maps for Average Return Periods (ARP) of 500, 1,000, 2,500, 5,000, 10,000 years. For each map, precalculated displays are provided for the mean, the 16th percentile, and the 84th percentile. All data are also made accessible through an interactive web mapper and through Open Geospatial Consortium standard protocols. The model was prepared in the framework of the European Project TSUMAPS-NEAM (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) funded by the mechanism of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (grant no. ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26).
    Description: European-Union Civil Protection Mechanism, DG-ECHO, Agreement Number ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26
    Description: Published
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Keywords: Europe ; NEAM ; Atlantic Ocean ; Mediterranean Sea ; Aegean Sea ; Marmara Sea ; Black Sea ; earthquake ; tsunami ; moment magnitude ; crustal fault ; subduction interface ; megathrust ; probabilistic hazard model ; natural hazard ; Disaster Risk Reduction ; 05.08. Risk ; 04.06. Seismology ; 03.02. Hydrology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: report
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  • 18
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    An Assessment of the diversity in scenario-based tsunami forecasts for the Indian Ocean (2013)
    In:  EPIC3Continental Shelf Research, ISSN: 0278-4343
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: This work examines the extent to which tsunami forecasts from different numerical forecast systems might be expected to differ under real-time conditions. This is done through comparing tsunami amplitudes from a number of existing tsunami scenario databases for eight different hypothetical tsunami events within the Indian Ocean. Forecasts of maximum tsunami amplitude are examined at ten output points distributed throughout the Indian Ocean at a range of depths. The results show that there is considerable variability in the forecasts and on average, the standard deviation of the maximum amplitudes is approximately 62% of the mean value. It is also shown that a significant portion of this diversity can be attributed to the different lengths of the scenario time series. These results have implications for the interoperability of Regional Tsunami Service Providers in the Indian Ocean.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 19
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    Comparison of modeling approaches and the resulting warning products in the framework of the Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS) (2017)
    In:  EPIC3ITS2017 - International Tsunami Symposium, Bali - Flores, Indonesia, 2017-08-21-2017-08-25
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-09-06
    Description: The Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System delivers simulated tsunami forecasts in two different ways: either matching scenario(s) from a pre-computed database or running on-the-fly tsunami simulation. The pre-computed tsunami scenarios are based on the finite element model TsunAWI that employs a triangular mesh with resolution ranging from 20km in deep ocean to 300m in coastal areas and to as much as 50m in some highly resolved areas. TsunAWI solves the nonlinear shallow water equations and contains a wetting-drying inundation scheme. The on-the-fly propagation model easyWave solves the linear shallow water equations on a regular finite-difference grid with a resolution of about 1 km and utilizes several simple options to estimate coastal impact. This model is used for forecasting after a tsunami has been generated in an area not covered by the database or after a moment tensor solution shows an earthquake focal mechanism not present in the database. Since warning products like estimated wave height (EWH) and estimated time of arrival (ETA) along the coast are based on modeling results, it is crucial to compare the resulting forecasted warning levels obtained by the two approaches. Resolutions and numerical settings of both models are quite different, therefore variations in the resulting outputs are to be expected; nevertheless, the extent of differences in warning levels should not be too large for identical sources. In the present study, we systematically investigate differences in resulting warning products along InaTEWS forecast points facing the Sunda arc. Whereas the finite-element mesh of TsunAWI covers the coast up to a terrain height of 50m and warning products have been pre-calculated directly in the forecast points, easyWave offers several options for their approximation including projections from offshore grid points or vertical wall. Differences and potential reasons for variations of warning products like the role of bathymetry resolution as well as the general approach for the assessment of EWH and ETA for different modeling frameworks are discussed in this contribution.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 20
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    The Tsunami Scenario Database of the Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS): Evolution of the Coverage and the Involved Modeling Approaches (2019)
    In:  EPIC3Pure Appl. Geophys.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-12-20
    Description: This study reports on recent developments of the Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS), specifically the tsunami modeling components used in the system. It is a dual system: firstly, InaTEWS operates a high-resolution scenario database pre-computed with the finite element model TsunAWI; running in parallel, the system also contains a supra real-time modeling component based on the GPU-parallelized linear long-wave model easyWave, capable of dealing with events outside the database coverage. The evolution of the tsunami scenario database over time is covered in the first sections also touching on the involved capacity building efforts. Starting with a coverage of just the Sunda Arc region, the database now includes scenarios for 15 fault zones. The study is augmented by an investigation of warning products used for early warning; the estimated wave height (EWH) and the estimated time of arrival (ETA). These parameters are determined by easyWave and TsunAWI with model specific approaches. Since the numerical setup of the two models is very different, the extent of variations in warning products is investigated for a number of scenarios, where both pure database scenarios and applications to real events are considered. Finally, the performance of the system in past tsunami events is reviewed to point out major system updates.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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