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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Nature Communications Vol. 12, No. 1 ( 2021-08-27)
    Details
    In: Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 12, No. 1 ( 2021-08-27)
    Abstract: Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2041-1723
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2553671-0
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  • 2
    Online Resource
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    Atmospheric and Surface Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms Determining Arctic Amplification: A Review of First Results and Prospects of the (AC)3 Project
    American Meteorological Society ; 2023
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 104, No. 1 ( 2023-01), p. E208-E242
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 104, No. 1 ( 2023-01), p. E208-E242
    Abstract: Mechanisms behind the phenomenon of Arctic amplification are widely discussed. To contribute to this debate, the (AC) 3 project was established in 2016 ( www.ac3-tr.de/ ). It comprises modeling and data analysis efforts as well as observational elements. The project has assembled a wealth of ground-based, airborne, shipborne, and satellite data of physical, chemical, and meteorological properties of the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and upper ocean that are available for the Arctic climate research community. Short-term changes and indications of long-term trends in Arctic climate parameters have been detected using existing and new data. For example, a distinct atmospheric moistening, an increase of regional storm activities, an amplified winter warming in the Svalbard and North Pole regions, and a decrease of sea ice thickness in the Fram Strait and of snow depth on sea ice have been identified. A positive trend of tropospheric bromine monoxide (BrO) column densities during polar spring was verified. Local marine/biogenic sources for cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles were found. Atmospheric–ocean and radiative transfer models were advanced by applying new parameterizations of surface albedo, cloud droplet activation, convective plumes and related processes over leads, and turbulent transfer coefficients for stable surface layers. Four modes of the surface radiative energy budget were explored and reproduced by simulations. To advance the future synthesis of the results, cross-cutting activities are being developed aiming to answer key questions in four focus areas: lapse rate feedback, surface processes, Arctic mixed-phase clouds, and airmass transport and transformation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0218.1
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0218.2
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 3
    Online Resource
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    Validation of ozone measurements from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE)
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2009
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 9, No. 2 ( 2009-01-16), p. 287-343
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 9, No. 2 ( 2009-01-16), p. 287-343
    Abstract: Abstract. This paper presents extensive {bias determination} analyses of ozone observations from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) satellite instruments: the ACE Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the Measurement of Aerosol Extinction in the Stratosphere and Troposphere Retrieved by Occultation (ACE-MAESTRO) instrument. Here we compare the latest ozone data products from ACE-FTS and ACE-MAESTRO with coincident observations from nearly 20 satellite-borne, airborne, balloon-borne and ground-based instruments, by analysing volume mixing ratio profiles and partial column densities. The ACE-FTS version 2.2 Ozone Update product reports more ozone than most correlative measurements from the upper troposphere to the lower mesosphere. At altitude levels from 16 to 44 km, the average values of the mean relative differences are nearly all within +1 to +8%. At higher altitudes (45–60 km), the ACE-FTS ozone amounts are significantly larger than those of the comparison instruments, with mean relative differences of up to +40% (about +20% on average). For the ACE-MAESTRO version 1.2 ozone data product, mean relative differences are within ±10% (average values within ±6%) between 18 and 40 km for both the sunrise and sunset measurements. At higher altitudes (~35–55 km), systematic biases of opposite sign are found between the ACE-MAESTRO sunrise and sunset observations. While ozone amounts derived from the ACE-MAESTRO sunrise occultation data are often smaller than the coincident observations (with mean relative differences down to −10%), the sunset occultation profiles for ACE-MAESTRO show results that are qualitatively similar to ACE-FTS, indicating a large positive bias (mean relative differences within +10 to +30%) in the 45–55 km altitude range. In contrast, there is no significant systematic difference in bias found for the ACE-FTS sunrise and sunset measurements.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-9-287-2009
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2009
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 4
    Online Resource
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    The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  Scientific Data Vol. 9, No. 1 ( 2022-08-01)
    Details
    In: Scientific Data, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 9, No. 1 ( 2022-08-01)
    Abstract: Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2052-4463
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01517-w
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2775191-0
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  • 5
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    Online Resource
    Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2022
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 119, No. 15 ( 2022-04-12)
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 119, No. 15 ( 2022-04-12)
    Abstract: Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org/ ) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2113561119
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 6
    Online Resource
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    GLORIA - A globally representative hyperspectral in situ dataset for optical sensing of water quality
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2023
    In:  Scientific Data Vol. 10, No. 1 ( 2023-02-16)
    Details
    In: Scientific Data, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 10, No. 1 ( 2023-02-16)
    Abstract: The development of algorithms for remote sensing of water quality (RSWQ) requires a large amount of in situ data to account for the bio-geo-optical diversity of inland and coastal waters. The GLObal Reflectance community dataset for Imaging and optical sensing of Aquatic environments (GLORIA) includes 7,572 curated hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance measurements at 1 nm intervals within the 350 to 900 nm wavelength range. In addition, at least one co-located water quality measurement of chlorophyll a , total suspended solids, absorption by dissolved substances, and Secchi depth, is provided. The data were contributed by researchers affiliated with 59 institutions worldwide and come from 450 different water bodies, making GLORIA the de-facto state of knowledge of in situ coastal and inland aquatic optical diversity. Each measurement is documented with comprehensive methodological details, allowing users to evaluate fitness-for-purpose, and providing a reference for practitioners planning similar measurements. We provide open and free access to this dataset with the goal of enabling scientific and technological advancement towards operational regional and global RSWQ monitoring.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2052-4463
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-01973-y
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2775191-0
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  • 7
    Online Resource
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    Identification of tetrahydrocarbazoles as novel multifactorial drug candidates for treatment of Alzheimer’s disease
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2014
    In:  Translational Psychiatry Vol. 4, No. 12 ( 2014-12-16), p. e489-e489
    Details
    In: Translational Psychiatry, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 4, No. 12 ( 2014-12-16), p. e489-e489
    Abstract: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative brain disorder and the most frequent cause of dementia. To date, there are only a few approved drugs for AD, which show little or no effect on disease progression. Impaired intracellular calcium homeostasis is believed to occur early in the cascade of events leading to AD. Here, we examined the possibility of normalizing the disrupted calcium homeostasis in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) store as an innovative approach for AD drug discovery. High-throughput screening of a small-molecule compound library led to the identification of tetrahydrocarbazoles, a novel multifactorial class of compounds that can normalize the impaired ER calcium homeostasis. We found that the tetrahydrocarbazole lead structure, first, dampens the enhanced calcium release from ER in HEK293 cells expressing familial Alzheimer’s disease (FAD)-linked presenilin 1 mutations. Second, the lead structure also improves mitochondrial function, measured by increased mitochondrial membrane potential. Third, the same lead structure also attenuates the production of amyloid-beta (Aβ) peptides by decreasing the cleavage of amyloid precursor protein (APP) by β-secretase, without notably affecting α- and γ-secretase cleavage activities. Considering the beneficial effects of tetrahydrocarbazoles addressing three key pathological aspects of AD, these compounds hold promise for the development of potentially effective AD drug candidates.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2158-3188
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/tp.2014.132
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2609311-X
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  • 8
    Online Resource
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    Geophysical validation of SCIAMACHY Limb Ozone Profiles
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2006
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 6, No. 1 ( 2006-01-26), p. 197-209
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 6, No. 1 ( 2006-01-26), p. 197-209
    Abstract: Abstract. We discuss the quality of the two available SCIAMACHY limb ozone profile products. They were retrieved with the University of Bremen IFE's algorithm version 1.61 (hereafter IFE), and the official ESA offline algorithm (hereafter OL) versions 2.4 and 2.5. The ozone profiles were compared to a suite of correlative measurements from ground-based lidar and microwave, sondes, SAGE II and SAGE III (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment). To correct for the expected Envisat pointing errors, which have not been corrected implicitly in either of the algorithms, we applied a constant altitude shift of -1.5 km to the SCIAMACHY ozone profiles. The IFE ozone profile data between 16 and 40 km are biased low by 3-6%. The average difference profiles have a typical standard deviation of 10% between 20 and 35 km. We show that more than 20% of the SCIAMACHY official ESA offline (OL) ozone profiles version 2.4 and 2.5 have unrealistic ozone values, most of these are north of 15° S. The remaining OL profiles compare well to correlative instruments above 24 km. Between 20 and 24 km, they underestimate ozone by 15±5%.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-6-197-2006
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 9
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    Author Correction: GLORIA - A globally representative hyperspectral in situ dataset for optical sensing of water quality
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2023
    In:  Scientific Data Vol. 10, No. 1 ( 2023-04-06)
    Details
    In: Scientific Data, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 10, No. 1 ( 2023-04-06)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2052-4463
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02069-3
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2775191-0
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  • 10
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    Validation of MIPAS-ENVISAT H〈sub〉2〈/sub〉O operational data collected between July 2002 and March 2004
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2013
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 13, No. 11 ( 2013-06-14), p. 5791-5811
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 11 ( 2013-06-14), p. 5791-5811
    Abstract: Abstract. Water vapour (H2O) is one of the operationally retrieved key species of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument aboard the Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) which was launched into its sun-synchronous orbit on 1 March 2002 and operated until April 2012. Within the MIPAS validation activities, independent observations from balloons, aircraft, satellites, and ground-based stations have been compared to European Space Agency (ESA) version 4.61 operational H2O data comprising the time period from July 2002 until March 2004 where MIPAS measured with full spectral resolution. No significant bias in the MIPAS H2O data is seen in the lower stratosphere (above the hygropause) between about 15 and 30 km. Differences of H2O quantities observed by MIPAS and the validation instruments are mostly well within the combined total errors in this altitude region. In the upper stratosphere (above about 30 km), a tendency towards a small positive bias (up to about 10%) is present in the MIPAS data when compared to its balloon-borne counterpart MIPAS-B, to the satellite instruments HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) and ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment, Fourier Transform Spectrometer), and to the millimeter-wave airborne sensor AMSOS (Airborne Microwave Stratospheric Observing System). In the mesosphere the situation is unclear due to the occurrence of different biases when comparing HALOE and ACE-FTS data. Pronounced deviations between MIPAS and the correlative instruments occur in the lowermost stratosphere and upper troposphere, a region where retrievals of H2O are most challenging. Altogether it can be concluded that MIPAS H2O profiles yield valuable information on the vertical distribution of H2O in the stratosphere with an overall accuracy of about 10 to 30% and a precision of typically 5 to 15% – well within the predicted error budget, showing that these global and continuous data are very valuable for scientific studies. However, in the region around the tropopause retrieved MIPAS H2O profiles are less reliable, suffering from a number of obstacles such as retrieval boundary and cloud effects, sharp vertical discontinuities, and frequent horizontal gradients in both temperature and H2O volume mixing ratio (VMR). Some profiles are characterized by retrieval instabilities.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-5791-2013
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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