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  • 1
    In: The Cryosphere, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 15, No. 5 ( 2021-05-31), p. 2451-2471
    Abstract: Abstract. Infrastructure built on perennially frozen ice-rich ground relies heavily on thermally stable subsurface conditions. Climate-warming-induced deepening of ground thaw puts such infrastructure at risk of failure. For better assessing the risk of large-scale future damage to Arctic infrastructure, improved strategies for model-based approaches are urgently needed. We used the laterally coupled 1D heat conduction model CryoGrid3 to simulate permafrost degradation affected by linear infrastructure. We present a case study of a gravel road built on continuous permafrost (Dalton highway, Alaska) and forced our model under historical and strong future warming conditions (following the RCP8.5 scenario). As expected, the presence of a gravel road in the model leads to higher net heat flux entering the ground compared to a reference run without infrastructure and thus a higher rate of thaw. Further, our results suggest that road failure is likely a consequence of lateral destabilisation due to talik formation in the ground beside the road rather than a direct consequence of a top-down thawing and deepening of the active layer below the road centre. In line with previous studies, we identify enhanced snow accumulation and ponding (both a consequence of infrastructure presence) as key factors for increased soil temperatures and road degradation. Using differing horizontal model resolutions we show that it is possible to capture these key factors and their impact on thawing dynamics with a low number of lateral model units, underlining the potential of our model approach for use in pan-Arctic risk assessments. Our results suggest a general two-phase behaviour of permafrost degradation: an initial phase of slow and gradual thaw, followed by a strong increase in thawing rates after the exceedance of a critical ground warming. The timing of this transition and the magnitude of thaw rate acceleration differ strongly between undisturbed tundra and infrastructure-affected permafrost ground. Our model results suggest that current model-based approaches which do not explicitly take into account infrastructure in their designs are likely to strongly underestimate the timing of future Arctic infrastructure failure. By using a laterally coupled 1D model to simulate linear infrastructure, we infer results in line with outcomes from more complex 2D and 3D models, but our model's computational efficiency allows us to account for long-term climate change impacts on infrastructure from permafrost degradation. Our model simulations underline that it is crucial to consider climate warming when planning and constructing infrastructure on permafrost as a transition from a stable to a highly unstable state can well occur within the service lifetime (about 30 years) of such a construction. Such a transition can even be triggered in the coming decade by climate change for infrastructure built on high northern latitude continuous permafrost that displays cold and relatively stable conditions today.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1994-0424
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2393169-3
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2018
    In:  Climate of the Past Vol. 14, No. 12 ( 2018-12-18), p. 2011-2036
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 14, No. 12 ( 2018-12-18), p. 2011-2036
    Abstract: Abstract. We have developed a new module to calculate soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation in perennially frozen ground in the land surface model JSBACH. Running this offline version of MPI-ESM we have modelled long-term permafrost carbon accumulation and release from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the pre-industrial (PI) age. Our simulated near-surface PI permafrost extent of 16.9 × 106 km2 is close to observational estimates. Glacial boundary conditions, especially ice sheet coverage, result in profoundly different spatial patterns of glacial permafrost extent. Deglacial warming leads to large-scale changes in soil temperatures, manifested in permafrost disappearance in southerly regions, and permafrost aggregation in formerly glaciated grid cells. In contrast to the large spatial shift in simulated permafrost occurrence, we infer an only moderate increase in total LGM permafrost area (18.3 × 106 km2) – together with pronounced changes in the depth of seasonal thaw. Earlier empirical reconstructions suggest a larger spread of permafrost towards more southerly regions under glacial conditions, but with a highly uncertain extent of non-continuous permafrost. Compared to a control simulation without describing the transport of SOC into perennially frozen ground, the implementation of our newly developed module for simulating permafrost SOC accumulation leads to a doubling of simulated LGM permafrost SOC storage (amounting to a total of ∼ 150 PgC). Despite LGM temperatures favouring a larger permafrost extent, simulated cold glacial temperatures – together with low precipitation and low CO2 levels – limit vegetation productivity and therefore prevent a larger glacial SOC build-up in our model. Changes in physical and biogeochemical boundary conditions during deglacial warming lead to an increase in mineral SOC storage towards the Holocene (168 PgC at PI), which is below observational estimates (575 PgC in continuous and discontinuous permafrost). Additional model experiments clarified the sensitivity of simulated SOC storage to model parameters, affecting long-term soil carbon respiration rates and simulated ALDs. Rather than a steady increase in carbon release from the LGM to PI as a consequence of deglacial permafrost degradation, our results suggest alternating phases of soil carbon accumulation and loss as an effect of dynamic changes in permafrost extent, ALDs, soil litter input, and heterotrophic respiration.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2217985-9
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2006
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 33, No. 14 ( 2006)
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 33, No. 14 ( 2006)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2023
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 50, No. 12 ( 2023-06-28)
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 50, No. 12 ( 2023-06-28)
    Abstract: We provide the first estimate of the heat uptake through both warming and thawing of Arctic terrestrial permafrost From 1980 to 2018, the northern terrestrial permafrost region absorbed  ZJ of heat, about 44% of it from melting of ground ice Thawing permafrost acts as a heat sink in the Earth's climate system, similar in magnitude to other components of the cryosphere
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 5
    In: The Cryosphere, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 15, No. 3 ( 2021-03-19), p. 1399-1422
    Abstract: Abstract. In continuous permafrost lowlands, thawing of ice-rich deposits and melting of massive ground ice lead to abrupt landscape changes called thermokarst, which have widespread consequences on the thermal, hydrological, and biogeochemical state of the subsurface. However, macro-scale land surface models (LSMs) do not resolve such localized subgrid-scale processes and could hence miss key feedback mechanisms and complexities which affect permafrost degradation and the potential liberation of soil organic carbon in high latitudes. Here, we extend the CryoGrid 3 permafrost model with a multi-scale tiling scheme which represents the spatial heterogeneities of surface and subsurface conditions in ice-rich permafrost lowlands. We conducted numerical simulations using stylized model setups to assess how different representations of micro- and meso-scale heterogeneities affect landscape evolution pathways and the amount of permafrost degradation in response to climate warming. At the micro-scale, the terrain was assumed to be either homogeneous or composed of ice-wedge polygons, and at the meso-scale it was assumed to be either homogeneous or resembling a low-gradient slope. We found that by using different model setups and parameter sets, a multitude of landscape evolution pathways could be simulated which correspond well to observed thermokarst landscape dynamics across the Arctic. These pathways include the formation, growth, and gradual drainage of thaw lakes; the transition from low-centred to high-centred ice-wedge polygons; and the formation of landscape-wide drainage systems due to melting of ice wedges. Moreover, we identified several feedback mechanisms due to lateral transport processes which either stabilize or destabilize the thermokarst terrain. The amount of permafrost degradation in response to climate warming was found to depend primarily on the prevailing hydrological conditions, which in turn are crucially affected by whether or not micro- and/or meso-scale heterogeneities were considered in the model setup. Our results suggest that the multi-scale tiling scheme allows for simulating ice-rich permafrost landscape dynamics in a more realistic way than simplistic one-dimensional models and thus facilitates more robust assessments of permafrost degradation pathways in response to climate warming. Our modelling work improves the understanding of how micro- and meso-scale processes affect the evolution of ice-rich permafrost landscapes, and it informs macro-scale modellers focusing on high-latitude land surface processes about the necessities and possibilities for the inclusion of subgrid-scale processes such as thermokarst within their models.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1994-0424
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2393169-3
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  • 6
    In: Biogeosciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 18, No. 2 ( 2021-01-18), p. 343-365
    Abstract: Abstract. Boreal forests in permafrost regions make up around one-third of the global forest cover and are an essential component of regional and global climate patterns. Further, climatic change can trigger extensive ecosystem shifts such as the partial disappearance of near-surface permafrost or changes to the vegetation structure and composition. Therefore, our aim is to understand how the interactions between the vegetation, permafrost and the atmosphere stabilize the forests and the underlying permafrost. Existing model setups are often static or are not able to capture important processes such as the vertical structure or the leaf physiological properties. There is a need for a physically based model with a robust radiative transfer scheme through the canopy. A one-dimensional land surface model (CryoGrid) is adapted for the application in vegetated areas by coupling a multilayer canopy model (CLM-ml v0; Community Land Model) and is used to reproduce the energy transfer and thermal regime at a study site (63.18946∘ N, 118.19596∘ E) in mixed boreal forest in eastern Siberia. An extensive comparison between measured and modeled energy balance variables reveals a satisfactory model performance justifying its application to investigate the thermal regime; surface energy balance; and the vertical exchange of radiation, heat and water in this complex ecosystem. We find that the forests exert a strong control on the thermal state of permafrost through changing the radiation balance and snow cover phenology. The forest cover alters the surface energy balance by inhibiting over 90 % of the solar radiation and suppressing turbulent heat fluxes. Additionally, our simulations reveal a surplus in longwave radiation trapped below the canopy, similar to a greenhouse, which leads to a magnitude in storage heat flux comparable to that simulated at the grassland site. Further, the end of season snow cover is 3 times greater at the forest site, and the onset of the snow-melting processes are delayed.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1726-4189
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2158181-2
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  • 7
    In: Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2022-10-14)
    Abstract: Nitrogen regulates multiple aspects of the permafrost climate feedback, including plant growth, organic matter decomposition, and the production of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide. Despite its importance, current estimates of permafrost nitrogen are highly uncertain. Here, we compiled a dataset of 〉 2000 samples to quantify nitrogen stocks in the Yedoma domain, a region with organic-rich permafrost that contains ~25% of all permafrost carbon. We estimate that the Yedoma domain contains 41.2 gigatons of nitrogen down to ~20 metre for the deepest unit, which increases the previous estimate for the entire permafrost zone by ~46%. Approximately 90% of this nitrogen (37 gigatons) is stored in permafrost and therefore currently immobile and frozen. Here, we show that of this amount, ¾ is stored 〉 3 metre depth, but if partially mobilised by thaw, this large nitrogen pool could have continental-scale consequences for soil and aquatic biogeochemistry and global-scale consequences for the permafrost feedback.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2041-1723
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2553671-0
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Past Global Changes (PAGES) ; 2008
    In:  PAGES news Vol. 16, No. 2 ( 2008-4), p. 20-21
    In: PAGES news, Past Global Changes (PAGES), Vol. 16, No. 2 ( 2008-4), p. 20-21
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1563-0803 , 1563-0803
    URL: Issue
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Past Global Changes (PAGES)
    Publication Date: 2008
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2260894-1
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2008
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 35, No. 23 ( 2008-12-05)
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 35, No. 23 ( 2008-12-05)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2008
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 10
    In: Earth-Science Reviews, Elsevier BV, Vol. 172 ( 2017-09), p. 75-86
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0012-8252
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1792-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2012642-6
    SSG: 13
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