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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) ; 2021
    In:  Science Vol. 374, No. 6564 ( 2021-10-08), p. 158-160
    Details
    In: Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Vol. 374, No. 6564 ( 2021-10-08), p. 158-160
    Abstract: Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades ( 1 – 4 ). Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across their lifetimes compared with older generations. This raises important issues of solidarity and fairness across generations ( 5 , 6 ) that have fueled a surge of climate protests led by young people in recent years and that underpin issues of intergenerational equity raised in recent climate litigation. However, the standard scientific paradigm is to assess climate change in discrete time windows or at discrete levels of warming ( 7 ), a “period” approach that inhibits quantification of how much more extreme events a particular generation will experience over its lifetime compared with another. By developing a “cohort” perspective to quantify changes in lifetime exposure to climate extremes and compare across generations (see the first figure), we estimate that children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960, under current climate policy pledges. Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0036-8075 , 1095-9203
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1126/science.abi7339
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Publication Date: 2021
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2014
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 111, No. 9 ( 2014-03-04), p. 3233-3238
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 9 ( 2014-03-04), p. 3233-3238
    Abstract: The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 °C above the 1980–2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 °C. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222471110
    RVK:
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2014
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2014
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 111, No. 9 ( 2014-03-04), p. 3239-3244
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 9 ( 2014-03-04), p. 3239-3244
    Abstract: We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO 2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222474110
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2014
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 111, No. 9 ( 2014-03-04), p. 3251-3256
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 9 ( 2014-03-04), p. 3251-3256
    Abstract: Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222475110
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2014
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 111, No. 9 ( 2014-03-04), p. 3245-3250
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 9 ( 2014-03-04), p. 3245-3250
    Abstract: Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity ( 〈 500 m 3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222460110
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2014
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 111, No. 9 ( 2014-03-04), p. 3262-3267
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 9 ( 2014-03-04), p. 3262-3267
    Abstract: Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO 2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222473110
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2014
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2014
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 111, No. 9 ( 2014-03-04), p. 3257-3261
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 9 ( 2014-03-04), p. 3257-3261
    Abstract: Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20–45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydrograph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5–30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1302078110
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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