Description: The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

Description: The protist Labyrinthula zosterae (Phylum Bigyra, sensu Tsui et al. 2009) has been identified as a causative agent of wasting disease in eelgrass (Zostera marina), of which the most intense outbreak led to the destruction of 90% of eelgrass beds in eastern North America and western Europe in the 1930s. Outbreaks still occur today, albeit at a smaller scale. Traditionally, L. zosterae has been quantified by measuring the necrotic area of Z. marina leaf tissue. This indirect method can however only lead to a very rough estimate of pathogen load. Here, we present a quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) approach to directly detect and quantify L. zosterae in eelgrass tissue. Based on the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences of rRNA genes, species-specific primers were designed. Using our qPCR, we were able to quantify accurately and specifically L. zosterae load both from culture and eelgrass leaves using material from Europe and North America. Our detection limit was less than one L. zosterae cell. Our results demonstrate the potential of this qPCR assay to provide rapid, accurate and sensitive molecular identification and quantification of L. zosterae. In view of declining seagrass populations worldwide, this method will provide a valuable tool for seagrass ecologists and conservation projects.

Description: Symptoms characteristic of wasting disease, thought to result from infection by protozoan pathogens (i.e. Labyrinthula spp.), are a common phenomenon affecting seagrass species worldwide. However relatively little is known about factors that control the survival and success of Labyrinthula in part due to the difficulty associated with quantifying the growth of this organism. Here we describe a simple and inexpensive method for measuring growth of Labyrinthula in liquid culture that takes into consideration both cell density and areal spread. The technique allows for examination of the effects of both abiotic and biotic factors on the growth of Labyrinthula apart from its seagrass host, separating the effects of environmental condition on the host from their effects on the pathogen.

Description: The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Description: Highlights • Carbon dioxide + propane mixtures are studied through accurate measurements of speeds of sound and phase equilibria. • Heat capacities and virial coefficients are obtained from speeds of sound. • Retrograde condensation zone is found for the (0.60 CO2 + 0.40 C3H8) mixture. • Results are compared with reference equations of state such as GERG-2008 and AGA8-DC92. This work presents phase envelope and speed of sound data for the (0.60 CO2 + 0.40 C3H8) and (0.80 CO2 + 0.20 C3H8) binary mixtures. Phase equilibria was measured using a cylindrical resonator working in the microwave band whereas an acoustic resonator was used for speed of sound measurements. The experimental results were compared with GERG-2008 equation of state, obtaining average absolute deviations by 0.24% in pressure for phase equilibria data and 0.025% for speed of sound data. Speed of sound values were used to derive perfect-gas heat capacities, acoustic virial coefficients, and second density virial coefficients. In addition, AGA8-DC92 equation of state performance was checked for the results derived from speeds of sound.