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  • 1
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    Analyzing the Impact of Streamflow Drought on Hydroelectricity Production: A Global‐Scale Study (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: Electricity production by hydropower is negatively affected by drought. To understand and quantify risks of less than normal streamflow for hydroelectricity production (HP) at the global scale, we developed an HP model that simulates time series of monthly HP worldwide and thus enables analyzing the impact of drought on HP. The HP model is based on a new global hydropower database (GHD), containing 8,716 geo‐localized plant records, and on monthly streamflow values computed by the global hydrological model WaterGAP with a spatial resolution of 0.5°. The GHD includes 44 attributes and covers 91.8% of the globally installed capacity. The HP model can reproduce HP trends, seasonality, and interannual variability that was caused by both (de)commissioning of hydropower plants and hydrological variability. It can also simulate streamflow drought and its impact on HP reasonably well. Global risk maps of HP reduction were generated for both 0.5° grid cells and countries, revealing that 67 out of the 134 countries with hydropower suffer, in 1 out of 10 years, from a reduction of more than 20% of mean annual HP and 18 countries from a reduction of more than 40%. The developed HP model enables advanced assessments of drought impacts on hydroelectricity at national to international levels.
    Description: Key Points: A new global hydropower database and a hydroelectricity production model were developed and validated The model simulates the impact of streamflow drought on monthly hydroelectricity production worldwide The 1‐in‐10 year risk of hydroelectricity production reduction due to drought is assessed at both 0.5° grid cell and country levels
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: MOST, National Key Research and Development Program of China (973 Program) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100012166
    Description: National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
    Keywords: 333.914 ; drought ; global hydrological model ; global hydropower database ; hydropower ; hydropower production
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    A global-scale analysis of water storage dynamics of inland wetlands: Quantifying the impacts of human water use and man-made reservoirs as well as the unavoidable and avoidable impacts of climate change (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Wetlands such as bogs, swamps, or freshwater marshes are hotspots of biodiversity. For 5.1 million km2 of inland wetlands, the dynamics of area and water storage, which strongly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services, were simulated using the global hydrological model WaterGAP. For the first time, the impacts of both human water use and man-made reservoirs (WUR) and future climate change (CC) on wetlands around the globe were quantified. WUR impacts are concentrated in arid/semiarid regions, where WUR decreased mean wetland water storage by more than 5% on 8.2% of the mean wetland area during 1986–2005 (Am), with highest decreases in groundwater depletion area. Using output of three climate models, CC impacts on wetlands were quantified, distinguishing unavoidable impacts [i.e., at 2 °C global warming (GW)] from avoidable impacts (difference between 3 °C and 2 °C impacts). Even unavoidable CC impacts are projected to be much larger than WUR impacts, also in arid/semiarid regions. On most wetland area with reliable estimates, avoidable CC impacts are more than twice as large as unavoidable impacts. In case of 2 °C GW, half of Am is estimated to be unaffected by mean storage changes of more than 5%, but only one third in case of 3 °C GW. Temporal variability of water storage will increase for most wetlands. Wetlands in dry regions will be affected the most, particularly by water storage decreases in the dry season. Different from wealthier countries, low-income countries will dominantly suffer from a decrease in wetland water storage due to CC.
    Keywords: 333.7 ; climate change ; water storage ; water use ; wetland ; reservoirs ; global
    Language: English
    Type: map
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  • 3
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    Sustainable research software for high-quality computational research in the Earth System Sciences: Recommendations for universities, funders and the scientific community in Germany (2023)
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    Publication Date: 2023-10-24
    Description: Similar to other research fields, new knowledge in the Earth System Sciences is increasingly produced by computational research. However, the reproducibility of this type of research has been shown to be very limited, and its efficiency and quality need to be improved. Reproducibility requires researchers to publish both their research outcome in the form of a paper and their research workflows, software and data so that other researchers can reproduce the findings without any further support still years later. Efficient and high-quality computational research requires skills beyond programming as well as the capacity for software maintenance. Inspired by a best-practice example from the Netherlands, we provide 15 recommendations for universities, research funders and the scientific community who wish to support the development of sustainable high-quality computational research in Germany. They relate to the training and support of researchers by universities and other research organizations and to research funding. Of particular importance are options for establishing institutional support by research software engineers who are employed in permanent positions, funding of research software as research infrastructure as well as approaches for increasing the scientific merit that is achieved by producing sustainable research software and providing reproducible research output.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Rundgespräch DO 737/22-1
    Description: report
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:book
    Format: 10
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  • 4
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    Report on continental-scale high-resolution modeling of streamflow intermittence (2023)
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    Publication Date: 2023-10-31
    Description: Quantification of the temporally varying streamflow intermittence at continental scales provides an important basis for evaluating biodiversity, ecosystem functions and ecosystem services in rivers as well as water resources for humans. As streamflow intermittence is often more prevalent in small upstream river reaches than in large downstream rivers, quantification needs to be done with a high spatial resolution. Aggregated to five classes (0, 1-2, 3-15, 16-29, 30-31 no-flow days), the number of no-flow days of approximately 1.5 million river reaches in Europe was estimated for each of the 468 months in the period 1981-2019 using a two-step Random Forest modeling approach. The model was developed based on a custom version of the 15 arc-sec HydroSHEDS drainage direction dataset. Data for 18 predictor variables (on hydrology, climate, physiography, geology, and land cover) as well as daily streamflow observed at 1,915 streamflow gauging stations were prepared as input to the RF model. In addition to upstream drainage area and slope, predictors based on time series of streamflow in 15 arc-sec grid cells were found to be most important for the RF model. These time series were generated by downscaling the 0.5 arc-deg runoff of the global hydrological model WaterGAP (downscaled streamflow is also already available for South America). In Europe but not in South America, the performance of downscaled monthly WaterGAP v2.2e streamflow as compared to streamflow observations is, on average, satisfactory also for small drainage basins of less than 10 km2. While 99% and 95% of the observed perennial station-months are predicted correctly for the calibration and validation periods, respectively, the RF approach tends to overestimate intermittence Considering only the intermittent station-months, the frequency of predicting the correct class among the four classes is about 56% and 47% for the calibration and the validation period, respectively. 9% of all reach-months are simulated to be intermittent. The temporal and spatial patterns of simulated intermittence classes are plausible. The simulated intermittence class in each reach-month will be used by the other DRYvER Work Packages to upscale models developed at the Drying River Network scale.
    Description: report
    Keywords: Streamflow ; Random Forest ; Downscaling ; No-flow days ; Streamflow intermittence ; Continental scale
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:book
    Format: 59
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