Description: We present a benthic foraminiferal multi-proxy record of eastern equatorial Atlantic (EEA) mid depth water (1295 m) covering the last deglacial. We show that EEA mid depth water temperatures were elevated by 3.9 ± 0.5 °C and 5.2 ± 1.2 °C during Heinrich event 1 (H1) and Younger Dryas (YD), respectively. The radiocarbon content of the EEA mid depth during H1 and YD is relatively low and comparable to the values of the pre-H1 episode and Bølling-Allerød, respectively. A transient earth system model simulation, which mimics the observed deglacial AMOC history, qualitatively reproduces the major features of the EEA proxy records. The simulation results suggest that fresh water-induced weakening of the AMOC leads to a vertical shift of the horizon of Southern Ocean-sourced water and a stronger influence of EEA sea surface temperatures via mixing. Our findings reaffirm the lack of a distinctive signature of radiocarbon depletion and therefore do not support the notion of interhemispheric exchanges of strongly radiocarbon-depleted mid-depth water across the tropical Atlantic during H1 and YD. Our temperature reconstruction presents a critical zonal and water depth extension of existing tropical Atlantic data and documents a large-scale and basin-wide warming across the thermocline and mid-depth of the tropical Atlantic during H1 and YD. Significant difference in the timing and pace of H1 mid-depth warming between tropical Atlantic and North Atlantic likely points to a limited role of the tropical Atlantic mid-depth warming in the rapid heat build up in the North Atlantic mid depth.

Description: In austral winter large regions of the Southern Ocean are covered by seasonal sea ice which disappears in summer. Only in few regions sea ice persists during the summer and becomes second year ice. Most of this second year ice is located in the Weddell Sea, making this region particularly interesting. The variation of the ice covered area modifies the exchange of heat, mass and momentum between ocean and atmosphere. Therefore knowledge of ice extent and its variability is necessary for an adequate simulation of those fluxes and thus for climate modelling. The goal of this study is the observation of interannual and seasonal ice extent variations and their underlying causes in the Weddell Sea. Variability is analysed by using microwave satellite data. Results are correlated with satellite derived sea ice drift data and with ice drift fields calculated from a Finite Element Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM) to determine the impact of ice drift variations on sea ice extent. An additional cause for variations of ice extent could be different ice type distributions, i.e. the contribution of first and second year ice to the total ice covered area. These ice types are determined on monthly time scales from scatterometer satellite data for the years 2000 to 2007 and will be extended backward in time using the ice thickness distribution modelled by FESOM. Ice class distribution and sea ice drift variability are compared with the characteristics and variability of meteorological behaviour to evaluate the relative importance of different sea ice parameters for shaping Weddell Sea ice extent and its variability.

Description: Simulations of ice-shelf basal melting in future climate scenarios from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) have revealed a large uncertainty and the potential of a rapidly increasing basal mass loss particularly for the large cold-water ice shelves in the Ross and Weddell Seas. The large spread in model results was traced back to uncertainties in the freshwater budget on the continental shelf, which is governed by sea-ice formation. Differences in sea-ice formation, in turn, were shown to follow the regional differences between the atmospheric heat fluxes imprinted by the climate models. A more recent suite of FESOM model experiments was performed with output from two members of the newer generation of climate models engaged in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Comparing simulations forced with output from the AR5/CMIP5 models HadGem2 and MPI-ESM, we find that projected heat fluxes and thus sea-ice formation over the Southern Ocean continental shelves have converged to an ensemble with a much smaller spread than between the AR4 experiments. For most of the modeled ice shelves, a gradual but accelerating increase of basal melt rates during the 21st century is a robust feature. Both with HadGem2 and with MPI-ESM forcing, basal melt rates for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in FESOM increase by a factor of two by the end of the 21st century in the RCP85 scenario. For the smaller, warm-water ice shelves, inter-model differences in ice-shelf basal mass loss projections are still slightly larger than differences between the scenarios RCP45 and RCP85; compared with AR4 projections, however, the model-dependent spread has been strongly reduced. Current work aims at further reducing the uncertainties arising from atmospheric forcing by using output from the regional climate model RACMO. The effect of a varying cavity geometry and the response of the grounded ice are being adressed by coupling to the RIMBay ice shelf / ice sheet model.

Description: Simulations of ice shelf basal melting in future climate scenarios from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) have revealed a large uncertainty and the potential of a rapidly increasing basal mass loss particularly for the large cold-water ice shelves in the Ross and Weddell Seas. The large spread in model results was traced back to uncertainties in the freshwater budget on the continental shelf, which is governed by sea ice formation. Differences in sea ice formation, in turn, follow the regional differences between the atmospheric heat fluxes imprinted by the climate models. A more recent suite of BRIOS and FESOM model experiments was performed with output from two members of the newer generation of climate models enganged in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Comparing simulations forced with output from the AR5/CMIP5 models HadGem2 and MPI-ESM, we find that uncertainties arising from inter-model differences in high latitudes have reduced considerably. Projected heat fluxes and thus sea ice formation over the Southern Ocean continental shelves have converged to an ensemble with a much smaller spread than between the AR4 experiments. For most of the ten larger ice shelves in Antarctica, a gradual (but accelerating) increase of basal melt rates during the 21st century is a robust feature throughout the various realisations. Both with HadGem2 and with MPI-ESM forcing, basal melt rates for Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in FESOM increase by a factor of two by the end of the 21st century in the RCP85 scenario. For the smaller, warm-water ice shelves, inter-model differences in ice shelf basal mass loss projections are still slightly larger than differences between the scenarios RCP45 and RCP85; compared to AR4 projections, however, the model-dependent spread has been strongly reduced.

Description: Simulations of ice-shelf basal melting in future climate scenarios from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) have revealed a large uncertainty and the potential of a rapidly increasing basal mass loss particularly for the large cold-water ice shelves in the Ross and Weddell Seas. The large spread in model results was traced back to uncertainties in the freshwater budget on the continental shelf, which is governed by sea-ice formation. Differences in sea-ice formation, in turn, follow the regional differences between the atmospheric heat fluxes imprinted by the climate models. A more recent suite of BRIOS and FESOM model experiments was performed with output from two members of the newer generation of climate models engaged in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Comparing simulations forced with output from the AR5/CMIP5 models HadGem2 and MPI-ESM, we find that uncertainties arising from inter-model differences in high latitudes have reduced considerably. Projected heat fluxes and thus sea-ice formation over the Southern Ocean continental shelves have converged to an ensemble with a much smaller spread than between the AR4 experiments. For most of the ten larger ice shelves in Antarctica, a gradual (but accelerating) increase of basal melt rates during the 21st century is a robust feature throughout the various realizations. Both with HadGem2 and with MPI-ESM forcing, basal melt rates for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in FESOM increase by a factor of two by the end of the 21st century in the RCP85 scenario. For the smaller, warm-water ice shelves, inter-model differences in ice-shelf basal mass loss projections are still slightly larger than differences between the scenarios RCP45 and RCP85; compared with AR4 projections, however, the model-dependent spread has been strongly reduced.

Description: The ice flow at the margins of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is moderated by large ice shelves. Their buttressing effect substantially controls the mass balance of the WAIS and thus its contribution to sea level rise. The stability of these ice shelves results from the balance of mass gain by accumulation and ice flow from the adjacent ice sheet and mass loss by calving and basal melting due to the ocean heat flux. Recent results of ocean circulation models indicate that warm circumpolar water of the Southern Ocean may override the submarine slope front of the Antarctic Continent and boost basal ice shelf melting. In particular, simulations demonstrate the redirection of a warm coastal current into the Filchner Trough and underneath the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) within the next decades. In coupled simulations with a finite elements ocean model and a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model we reveal that the consequent thinning of the FRIS would lead to an extensive grounding line retreat associated with a vast mass loss of the WAIS. In a subsequent study, we focus on the ice streams which are draining into the FRIS and dominating the mass transport from grounded to floating ice. For a better representation of these fast-flowing ice features we expand the above ice flow model by the incorporation of local processes at the ice base. There, sediment deformation and lubrication by subglacial hydrology locally allow high basal sliding rates and thus create the precondition for the development of ice streams. A parametrization of basal sliding properties by the simulated basal melt water fluxes allows us to depict velocity and locations of observed ice streams in the catchment of the FRIS more realistically. We present first results of this advanced ice-flow modeling approach, anticipating an even larger response of the AIS to increased sub-shelf melting rates in future coupled simulations.

Description: In the Amundsen Sea, warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) intrudes onto the continental shelf and flows into the ice shelf cavities of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, resulting in high basal melt rates. However, none of the high resolution global models resolving all the small ice shelves around Antarctica can reproduce a realistic CDW flow onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, and previous studies show simulated bottom potential temperature at the Pine Island Ice Shelf front of about −1.8 °C. In this study, using the Finite-Element Sea ice–ice shelf-Ocean Model (FESOM), we reproduce warm CDW intrusions onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf and realistic melt rates of the ice shelves in West Antarctica. To investigate the importance of horizontal resolution, forcing, horizontal diffusivity, and the effect of grounded icebergs, eight sensitivity experiments are conducted. To simulate the CDW intrusion realistically, a horizontal resolution of about 5 km or smaller is required. The choice of forcing is also important and the cold bias in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis over the eastern Amundsen Sea prevents warm CDW from intruding onto the continental shelf. On the other hand, the CDW intrusion is not highly sensitive to the strength of horizontal diffusion. The effect of grounded icebergs located off Bear Peninsula is minor, but may act as a buffer to an anomalously cold year.

Description: We apply a global finite element sea ice/ice shelf/ocean model (FESOM) to the Antarctic marginal seas to analyze projections of ice shelf basal melting in a warmer climate. The model is forced with the atmospheric output from two climate models: (1) the Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM3) and (2) Max Planck Institute’s ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Results from their 20th-century simulations are used to evaluate the modeled present-day ocean state. Sea-ice coverage is largely realistic in both simulations. Modeled ice shelf basal melt rates compare well with observations in both cases, but are consistently smaller for ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Projections for future ice shelf basal melting are computed using atmospheric output for IPCC scenarios E1 and A1B. While trends in sea ice coverage, ocean heat content, and ice shelf basal melting are small in simulations forced with ECHAM5 data, a substantial shift towards a warmer regime is found in experiments forced with HadCM3 output. A strong sensitivity of basal melting to increased ocean temperatures is found for the ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea. For the cold-water ice shelves in the Ross and Weddell Seas,decreasing convection on the continental shelf in the HadCM3 scenarios leads to an erosion of the continental slope front and to warm water of open ocean origin entering the continental shelf. As this water reaches deep into the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) cavity, basal melting increases by a factor of three to six compared to the present value of about 100 Gt/yr. Highest melt rates at the deep FRIS grounding line causes a retreat of 〉 200km, equivalent to an land ice loss of 110 Gt/yr.

Description: This study deals with observations and simulations of the evolution of coastal polynias focusing on the Ronne Polynia. We compare differences in polynia extent and ice drift patterns derived from satellite radar images and from simulations with the Finite Element Sea Ice Ocean Model, employing three atmospheric forcing data sets that differ in spatial and temporal resolution. Two polynia events are analyzed, one from austral summer and one from late fall 2008. The open water area in the polynia is of similar size in the satellite images and in the model simulations, but its temporal evolution differs depending on katabatic winds being resolved in the atmospheric forcing data sets. Modeled ice drift is slower than the observed and reveals greater turning angles relative to the wind direction in many cases. For the summer event, model results obtained with high-resolution forcing are closer to the drift field derived from radar imagery than those from coarse resolution forcing. For the late fall event, none of the forcing data yields outstanding results. Our study demonstrates that a dense (1–3 km) model grid and atmospheric forcing provided at high spatial resolution ( 〈 50 km) are critical to correctly simulate coastal polynias with a coupled sea-ice ocean model.