Note: Cover -- Half-title -- Series information -- Title page -- Copyright information -- Table of contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- List of contributors -- Part I Diagnostics and prediction of high-impact weather -- 1 Global prediction of high-impact weather: diagnosis and performance -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Global NWP: how it is done today -- 1.3 The need for dynamical understanding: getting things right for the right reasons -- 1.4 The need for uncertainty information: assessing the degree of confidence -- 1.5 Summary -- 1.6 Opportunities for further progress -- References -- 2 Severe weather diagnosis from the perspective of generalized slantwise vorticity development -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Generalized slantwise vorticity development -- 2.2.1 Revisiting slantwise vorticity development -- 2.2.2 Diabatic vorticity development -- Impacts on vertical vorticity development of the vertical non-uniformity of diabatic heating -- Impacts on vertical vorticity development of the horizontal non-uniformity of diabatic heating -- 2.2.3 Adiabatic vorticity development -- Slantwise vorticity development on a sloping isentropic surface -- Slantwise vorticity development from a Lagrangian perspective -- Vorticity development (VD) -- Slantwise vorticity development (SVD) -- Relationship between PV2PV2 and SVD -- 2.3 Application of generalized slantwise vorticity development -- 2.3.1 Data and computational method -- Data -- Computational method -- 2.3.2 Description of the TPV in 2008 -- Track of the TPV and associated precipitation -- Large-scale circulation associated with the TPV -- 2.3.3 Diabatic vorticity development due to inhomogeneous heating -- Relative contributions to vertical vorticity development of the changes in PVePVe, PV2PV2, and thetazthetaz -- Effect of the vertical gradient of diabatic heating. , Effect of the horizontal gradient of diabatic heating -- 2.3.4 Adiabatic vorticity development due to slantwise vorticity development -- 2.4 Discussion and conclusions -- References -- 3 Probabilistic extreme event attribution -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Concepts -- 3.2.1 Weather versus climate -- 3.2.2 Risk versus probability -- 3.2.3 Metrics of attributable risk -- Risk ratio (RR) -- Fraction of attributable risk (FAR) -- Fraction of attributable increase and decrease in risk (FAIR and FADR) -- 3.2.4 Atmosphere-only modelling approaches -- Targeted probabilistic extreme event attribution -- Systematic probabilistic extreme event attribution -- 3.2.5 Coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling approaches -- 3.3 Examples: seasonal-mean extremes -- 3.3.1 Hot season -- 3.3.2 Flood -- 3.4 Current issues -- 3.4.1 Selection bias -- 3.4.2 Computational constraints -- 3.5 Summary -- References -- 4 Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Statistical characterization of extremes -- 4.2.1 Extreme value analysis -- 4.2.2 Estimation of trends -- 4.2.3 Detection and attribution -- 4.3 Temperature extremes -- 4.3.1 Observed changes -- 4.3.2 Understanding the causes -- 4.3.3 Future changes -- 4.4 Precipitation extremes -- 4.4.1 Observed changes -- 4.4.2 Understanding the causes -- 4.4.3 Future changes -- 4.5 Summary and discussion -- References -- Part II High-impact weather in mid latitudes -- 5 Rossby wave breaking: climatology, interaction with low-frequency climate variability, and links to extreme weather events -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Rossby wave breaking: definition and upper-level signature -- 5.3 Climatological occurrence of RWB and link to patterns of low-frequency variability -- 5.3.1 Climatological occurrence of RWB -- 5.3.2 RWB and patterns of low-frequency variability -- 5.4 RWB and surface weather. , 5.5 Link to high-impact weather events -- References -- 6 The influence of jet stream regime on extreme weather events -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Dynamical regimes of the large-scale circulation -- 6.3 Methods -- 6.3.1 Diagnostics of extreme events -- 6.3.2 The idealized models -- 6.4 The relation between jet stream type and the distribution and evolution of extreme weather events -- 6.4.1 Observed extreme upper level cyclonic vorticity events -- 6.4.2 Extreme events in the idealized models -- 6.4.3 The distribution of observed extreme temperature anomalies -- 6.5 Discussion -- 6.6 Acknowledgments -- References -- 7 Forecasting high-impact weather using ensemble prediction systems -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Quantifying uncertainty -- 7.2.1 An ideal ensemble prediction system -- 7.2.2 Initial condition uncertainty -- 7.2.3 Uncertainty due to model error -- 7.3 Practical ensemble prediction systems -- 7.3.1 Global EPS -- 7.3.2 Convective-scale EPS -- 7.4 Probabilistic forecast verification -- 7.4.1 Proper scoring rules -- 7.4.2 Proper score decomposition -- 7.5 Calibration and postprocessing -- 7.5.1 Postprocessing for extremes -- 7.6 Communicating uncertainty -- 7.7 Conclusion -- 7.8 Acknowledgements -- References -- 8 Storm tracks, blocking, and climate change: a review -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Climate models and a historical perspective -- 8.3 Mechanisms causing storm track change -- 8.4 Storm track projections -- 8.5 Blocking changes -- 8.6 Outlook -- References -- 9 The North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations: climate variability, extremes, and stratosphere-troposphere interaction -- 9.1 What is the North Atlantic Oscillation and how is it related to the Arctic Oscillation? -- 9.2 The NAO as a governor of extreme weather -- 9.3 Degeneracy in the response to different drivers -- 9.4 Chaotic 'noise' or predictable signal? -- 9.5 Summary. , References -- Part III Tropical cyclones -- 10 Opportunities and challenges in dynamical and predictability studies of tropical cyclone events -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Extended-range predictions of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events -- 10.3 Extended-range predictions of Atlantic tropical cyclone events -- 10.4 Seasonal prediction of Atlantic tropical cyclone events -- 10.5 Seasonal forecasts for western North Pacific tropical cyclone events -- 10.6 Concluding remarks -- 10.7 Acknowledgments -- References -- 11 Predictability of severe weather and tropical cyclones at the mesoscales -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Mesoscale predictability of mid-latitude winter snowstorms and moist baroclinic waves -- 11.3 Mesoscale predictability of warm season severe weather events -- 11.4 Mesoscale predictability of tropical cyclones -- 11.5 Concluding remarks -- References -- 12 Dynamics, predictability, and high-impact weather associated with the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Physical processes -- 12.2.1 Extratropical transition -- 12.2.2 Impacts on the mid-latitude circulation -- 12.2.3 Downstream development -- 12.3 Predictability -- 12.4 Recurving TC Oscar and extreme weather downstream over North America -- 12.4.1 Overview and life cycle -- 12.4.2 Tropical cyclone-extratropical flow interaction -- 12.4.3. Downstream flow reconfiguration -- 12.4.4 Possible role of low-frequency tropical forcing -- 12.4.5 Predictability associated with TY Oscar -- 12.5 Summary and future directions -- 12.6 Acknowledgments -- References -- 13 Secondary eyewall formation in tropical cyclones -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 Environmental conditions -- 13.3 Internal mechanisms of SEF -- 13.3.1 Vortex Rossby waves -- 13.3.2 Axisymmetrization process -- 13.3.3 Beta-skirt axisymmetrization formation hypothesis. , 13.3.4 Unbalanced boundary layer dynamics near the top of the TC boundary layer -- 13.3.5 Balanced response to diabatic heating in a region of enhanced inertial stability -- 13.4 Concluding remarks -- 13.5 Acknowledgment -- References -- 14 Seasonal forecasting of floods and tropical cyclones -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 Seasonal forecasting -- 14.3 POAMA and the Beijing floods of 21 July 2012 -- 14.4 May 2010 POAMA forecast -- 14.5 Tropical cyclones during the 2010/2011 rainy season -- 14.6 Cyclone Yasi -- 14.7 Downscaling -- 14.8 Summary and conclusion -- References -- Part IV Heat waves and cold-air outbreaks -- 15 European heat waves: the effect of soil moisture, vegetation, and land use -- 15.1 Introduction -- 15.2 Climatology of European heat waves -- 15.3 Dynamical processes -- 15.4 Surface hydrology -- 15.5 Soil moisture - climate feedback -- 15.6 Mesoscale effects -- 15.7 Vegetation and land-use change effects -- 15.8 Concluding remarks -- References -- 16 Western North American extreme heat, associated large-scale synoptic-dynamics, and performance by a climate model -- 16.1 Introduction -- 16.2 California heat waves: upper air large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) synoptics and dynamics -- 16.3 LSMPs as a predictor of surface extreme heat -- 16.4 How well are LSMPs captured by a climate model? -- 16.5 Conclusions -- 16.6 Acknowledgments -- References -- 17 Decadal to interdecadal variations of northern China heat wave frequency: impact of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover -- 17.1 Introduction -- 17.2 Data, model, and methodology -- 17.3 The China HWF and TPSC -- 17.4 Physical mechanisms -- 17.5 Conclusion and discussion -- 17.6 Acknowledgments -- References -- 18 Global warming targets and heat wave risk -- 18.1 Introduction -- 18.2 Data -- 18.3 Results -- 18.4 Plausibility of the upper estimates. , 18.5 Role of soil drying on range of regional warming.