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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk  (16)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability  (8)
  • 1
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    Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’ (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand’s nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic uncertainties through the development of better input models.
    Description: Published
    Description: 185–204
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Auckland Volcanic Field ; Eruption forecasting ; Bayesian Event Tree ; Ruaumoko ; Disaster exercise ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting (2007)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application to the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
    Description: Published
    Description: on line first
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Eruption forecasting ; Long- and short-term volcanic hazard ; Bayesian inference ; Event tree ; Fuzzy sets ; MESIMEX ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Stochastical and Mathematical Modeling of Long-term Interaction among Earthquakes and between Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: At first, we investigate on the physical mechanisms responsible for for long-term interactions. It has been argued that postseismic relaxation field might be responsible of such long-term interactions; then, our first task is understand whether or not the postseismic stress field can produce not negligible perturbations (respect to the tectonic field) and lead to long-term variations on a seismogenetic system. The second task of this work is to systematically investigate on the effects of long-term interactions in the seismic data. In particular, we focus our attention on the perturbation induced by the greatest earthquakes of the last century, all occurred in the period 1952-1965. At global scale, we study the distribution of strong earthquakes (M ≥ 7.0), and specifically we try to understand whether spatial and temporal distribution of M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes occurred after 1965 is correlated with the perturbation due to the 5 giant earthquakes Kamchatka 1952, Aleutins 1957, Chile 1960, Alaska 1964, and Aleutins 1965. At local scale, we aim to understand the effects of long-term interactions on moderate seismicity. In particular, we study the effects of the two strongest event of the past century (Chile 1960 and Alaska 1964) in Southern California, where is available a catalog (complete with focal parameters estimation) for moderate seismicity (M ≥ 4.7) since 1933. Finally, we study the effects of long-term stress perturbations on volcanic systems. The interaction between strong tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions has been found through various statistical analysis of catalogs [e.g., Linde and Sacks, 1998; Marzocchi, 2002; Marzocchi et al., 2002]. Anyway, some authors remain skeptical because of the retrospective approach used in those works. Therefore, here we aim to set an objective tool to accomplish a forward test to quantitatively analyze such a long-term interaction among earthquakes and volcanoes.
    Description: Dottorato di Ricerca in Geofisica, XVII Ciclo, Università di Bologna
    Description: Published
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: open
    Keywords: interaction ; postseismic ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: thesis
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  • 4
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    Variations of southern California seismicity: Empirical evidence and possible physical causes (2005)
    AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We investigate southern California seismicity in order to characterize its temporal evolution during the last decades. We analyze the time series composed of the number of events per year and the focal mechanisms of earthquakes since 1933. The results show a statistically significant nonstationarity, with a change that occurred in the 1960s in both time series. The seismicity before the change point is mostly characterized by a strike-slip focal mechanism of San Andreas type; after the 1960s the seismicity appears to show more scattered focal mechanisms and a lower seismicity rate. We provide a possible physical explanation of the significant nonstationarity by modeling the postseismic stress perturbation field induced by the two strongest earthquakes of the last century, the Chile (1960) and Alaska (1964) earthquakes, which both occurred in the 1960s. To first order, the postseismic stress rate seems to be in agreement with the observed changes in seismicity, supporting a causality hypothesis. The model also foretells the future behavior of the trend of southern California seismicity; this forward prediction provides an important opportunity to validate the causal hypothesis of a remote (and long-term) coupling between earthquakes.
    Description: Published
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: lon-term interaction ; post-seismic field ; nonstationarities ; southern california ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Format: 339642 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 5
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    Bayesian event tree for eruption forecasting (BET_EF) at Vesuvius, Italy: a retrospective forward application to the 1631 eruption (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Reliable forecasting of the next eruption at Vesuvius is the main scientific factor in defining effective strategies to reduce volcanic risk in one of the most dangerous volcanic areas of the world. In this paper, we apply a recently developed probabilistic code for eruption forecasting to new and independent historical data related to the pre-eruptive phase of the 1631 eruption. The results obtained point out three main issues: (1) the importance of “cold” historical data (according to Guidoboni 2008) related to pre-eruptive phases for evaluating forecasting tools and possibly refining them; (2) the BET_EF code implemented for Vesuvius would have forecasted the 1631 eruption satisfactorily, marking different stages of the pre-eruptive phase; (3) the code shows that pre-eruptive signals that significantly increase the probability of eruption were likely detected more than 2 months before the event.
    Description: Published
    Description: 729-745
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Cold historical data ; Vesuvius ; 1631 eruption ; BET_EF code ; Eruption forecasting ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’ (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand’s nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic uncertainties through the development of better input models.
    Description: In press
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Auckland Volcanic Field ; Eruption forecasting ; Bayesian Event Tree ; Ruaumoko ; Disaster exercise ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    On the Occurrence of Large Earthquakes: New Insights From a Model based on Interacting Faults Embedded in a Realistic Tectonic Setting (2008)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-02-03
    Description: Earthquake occurrence stems from a complex interaction of processes that are still partially unknown. This lack of knowledge is revealed by the different statistical distributions that have been so far proposed, and by the different beliefs about the role of some key components as the tectonic setting, fault recurrence, seismic clusters, and fault interaction. Here, we explore these issues through a numerical model based on a realistic interacting fault system. We use an active fault system in Central Italy responsible for moderate to large earthquakes, where geometric and kinematic parameters of each structure can be confidently assessed. Then, we generate synthetic catalogs by modeling different seismogenic processes and allowing co- and post-seismic fault interaction. The comparison of synthetic and real seismic catalogs highlights many interesting features: (i) synthetic seismic catalogs reproduce the short-term clustering and the long-term modulation observed in the historical catalog of the last centuries; (ii) a recurrent model of earthquake occurrence on faults is more effective than a Poisson model to explain such short-term and long-term time features; (iii) a realistic fault pattern is a key component to generate stochasticity in the seismic catalog, preventing a systematic time ”synchronization” of strongly coupled faults; (iv) such a stochasticity may put strong limits to the forecasting capability of models based on fault interaction, even though the latter is a key component of the process. Finally, the model allows explicit predictions on future paleoseismological observations to be made.
    Description: In press
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Earthquake interactions ; probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
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    Forecasting the effects of the Andaman Islands - Sumatra megathrust earthquakes (Dec. 2004 and Mar. 2005) on volcanoes in the surrounding area (2006)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Andaman Islands - Sumatra earthquake (Mw = 9.3, Dec. 2004) and the subsequent Sumatra earthquake (Mw = 8.7, Mar. 2005) represent one of most energetic sequence of earthquakes ever recorded. Since both events occurred in a strongly active volcanic region, their exceptionally strong stress perturbation gives the opportunity to understand the effects of stress perturbations on volcanic systems. Here, we set the rules for a forward test of the causal relationship between stress perturbation and subsequent volcanic eruptions, by means of the comparison of the spatio-temporal distribution of the eruptions which follow the earthquakes with the co- and the post-seismic stress field due to the earthquakes. In practice, we forecast that the volcanic activity of the next 30 years will be significantly promoted by the stress perturbation; thus, we define the rules for an objective test of such an hypothesis. Given the extremely high values of stress perturbation due to this sequence of earthquakes, the results of our test will definitively provide a reliable evaluation of the possible statistical impact of earthquake-eruption interaction on long-term volcanic hazard assessments.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: open
    Keywords: Earthquake-volcano interaction, stastical model, stress field, ; stress field ; Statistical model ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: manuscript
    Format: 724315 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 9
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    On the Occurrence of Large Earthquakes: New Insights from a Model based on Interacting Faults Embedded in a Realistic Tectonic Setting (2009)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Earthquake occurrence stems from a complex interaction of processes that are still partially unknown. This lack of knowledge is revealed by the different statistical distributions that have been so far proposed and by the different beliefs about the role of some key components as the tectonic setting, fault recurrence, seismic clusters, and fault interaction. Here, we explore these issues through a numerical model based on a realistic interacting fault system. We use an active fault system in central Italy responsible for moderate to large earthquakes, where geometric and kinematic parameters of each structure can be confidently assessed. Then, we generate synthetic catalogs by modeling different seismogenic processes and allowing coseismic and postseismic fault interaction. The comparison of synthetic and real seismic catalogs highlights many interesting features: (1) synthetic seismic catalogs reproduce the short-term clustering and the long-term modulation observed in the historical catalog of the last centuries; (2) a recurrent model of earthquake occurrence on faults is more effective than a Poisson model to explain such short-term and long-term time features; (3) a realistic fault pattern is a key component to generate stochasticity in the seismic catalog, preventing a systematic time ‘‘synchronization’’ of strongly coupled faults; (4) such a stochasticity may put strong limits to the forecasting capability of models based on fault interaction, even though the latter is a key component of the process. Finally, the model allows explicit predictions on future paleoseismological observations to be made.
    Description: Published
    Description: B01307
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Earthquake interactions ; Probability ; Central Italy ; Fault ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
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    Long-term forecast of eruption style and size at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) (2009)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Campi Flegrei caldera is an active and restless volcano in the densely inhabited Neapolitan area of southern Italy. Because of the very high value (lives, properties, infrastructures, etc.) exposed to potential volcanic hazards, it is one of the areas at highest volcanic risk on Earth. In such a situation we have made an attempt to contribute to assessment of its volcanic hazards by providing a quantitative probabilistic longterm forecast of style and size of the next eruption. We have evaluated the most relevant physical parameters of the 22 explosive eruptions of the Campi Flegrei caldera over the past 5 ka. This time span has been taken as the reference period for volcanic hazards assessment on the basis of the volcanic and deformation history of the caldera. The evaluated parameters include dispersal, volume and density of the pyroclastic deposits, volume of erupted magma, total erupted mass, and eruption magnitude. The obtained results permit a size classification of the explosive eruptions, which are grouped into three sizes: small, medium, and large. On the basis of the reconstructed eruption dynamics, we have considered a type event(s) representative of each size class and hypothesized the style of the next event. An effusive eruption will likely generate a dome or very small lava flows, while an explosive event of any size very probably will produce particles fallout and flowage of pyroclastic density currents. Using a Bayesian inference procedure, we have assigned a conditional probability of occurrence to each of the eruption size classes. A small-size explosive eruption is the most likely event with a probability of about 60%; a large-size explosive eruption is the least likely event with a probability of about 4%; a medium-size explosive eruption has a probability of occurrence of about 25%; an effusive eruption has about 11% probability of occurrence.
    Description: Published
    Description: 265–276
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcanic hazards assessment ; eruption size ; eruption style ; Campi Flegrei caldera ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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