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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Marine cloud brightening
    The Royal Society ; 2012
    In:  Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Vol. 370, No. 1974 ( 2012-09-13), p. 4217-4262
    Details
    In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, The Royal Society, Vol. 370, No. 1974 ( 2012-09-13), p. 4217-4262
    Abstract: The idea behind the marine cloud-brightening (MCB) geoengineering technique is that seeding marine stratocumulus clouds with copious quantities of roughly monodisperse sub-micrometre sea water particles might significantly enhance the cloud droplet number concentration, and thereby the cloud albedo and possibly longevity. This would produce a cooling, which general circulation model (GCM) computations suggest could—subject to satisfactory resolution of technical and scientific problems identified herein—have the capacity to balance global warming up to the carbon dioxide-doubling point. We describe herein an account of our recent research on a number of critical issues associated with MCB. This involves (i) GCM studies, which are our primary tools for evaluating globally the effectiveness of MCB, and assessing its climate impacts on rainfall amounts and distribution, and also polar sea-ice cover and thickness; (ii) high-resolution modelling of the effects of seeding on marine stratocumulus, which are required to understand the complex array of interacting processes involved in cloud brightening; (iii) microphysical modelling sensitivity studies, examining the influence of seeding amount, seed-particle salt-mass, air-mass characteristics, updraught speed and other parameters on cloud–albedo change; (iv) sea water spray-production techniques; (v) computational fluid dynamics studies of possible large-scale periodicities in Flettner rotors; and (vi) the planning of a three-stage limited-area field research experiment, with the primary objectives of technology testing and determining to what extent, if any, cloud albedo might be enhanced by seeding marine stratocumulus clouds on a spatial scale of around 100×100 km. We stress that there would be no justification for deployment of MCB unless it was clearly established that no significant adverse consequences would result. There would also need to be an international agreement firmly in favour of such action.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1364-503X , 1471-2962
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2012.0086
    RVK:
    AX 30011
    Language: English
    Publisher: The Royal Society
    Publication Date: 2012
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1462626-3
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 5,1
    SSG: 5,21
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  • 2
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    Online Resource
    Seasonality and pathogen transmission in pastoral cattle contact networks
    The Royal Society ; 2017
    In:  Royal Society Open Science Vol. 4, No. 12 ( 2017-12), p. 170808-
    Details
    In: Royal Society Open Science, The Royal Society, Vol. 4, No. 12 ( 2017-12), p. 170808-
    Abstract: Capturing heterogeneity in contact patterns in animal populations is essential for understanding the spread of infectious diseases. In contrast to other regions of the world in which livestock movement networks are integral to pathogen prevention and control policies, contact networks are understudied in pastoral regions of Africa due to the challenge of measuring contact among mobile herds of cattle whose movements are driven by access to resources. Furthermore, the extent to which seasonal changes in the distribution of water and resources impacts the structure of contact networks in cattle is uncertain. Contact networks may be more conducive to pathogen spread in the dry season due to congregation at limited water sources. Alternatively, less abundant forage may result in decreased pathogen transmission due to competitive avoidance among herds, as measured by reduced contact rates. Here, we use GPS technology to concurrently track 49 free-roaming cattle herds within a semi-arid region of Kenya, and use these data to characterize seasonal contact networks and model the spread of a highly infectious pathogen. This work provides the first empirical data on the local contact network structure of mobile herds based on quantifiable contact events. The contact network demonstrated high levels of interconnectivity. An increase in contacts near to water resources in the dry season resulted in networks with both higher contact rates and higher potential for pathogen spread than in the wet season. Simulated disease outbreaks were also larger in the dry season. Results support the hypothesis that limited water resources enhance connectivity and transmission within contact networks, as opposed to reducing connectivity as a result of competitive avoidance. These results cast light on the impact of seasonal heterogeneity in resource availability on predicting pathogen transmission dynamics, which has implications for other free-ranging wild and domestic populations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2054-5703
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1098/rsos.170808
    Language: English
    Publisher: The Royal Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2787755-3
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  • 3
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    Online Resource
    Transmission ecology of canine parvovirus in a multi-host, multi-pathogen system
    The Royal Society ; 2019
    In:  Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Vol. 286, No. 1899 ( 2019-03-27)
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, The Royal Society, Vol. 286, No. 1899 ( 2019-03-27)
    Abstract: Understanding multi-host pathogen maintenance and transmission dynamics is critical for disease control. However, transmission dynamics remain enigmatic largely because they are difficult to observe directly, particularly in wildlife. Here, we investigate the transmission dynamics of canine parvovirus (CPV) using state–space modelling of 20 years of CPV serology data from domestic dogs and African lions in the Serengeti ecosystem. We show that, although vaccination reduces the probability of infection in dogs, and despite indirect enhancement of population seropositivity as a result of vaccine shedding, the vaccination coverage achieved has been insufficient to prevent CPV from becoming widespread. CPV is maintained by the dog population and has become endemic with approximately 3.5-year cycles and prevalence reaching approximately 80%. While the estimated prevalence in lions is lower, peaks of infection consistently follow those in dogs. Dogs exposed to CPV are also more likely to become infected with a second multi-host pathogen, canine distemper virus. However, vaccination can weaken this coupling, raising questions about the value of monovalent versus polyvalent vaccines against these two pathogens. Our findings highlight the need to consider both pathogen- and host-level community interactions when seeking to understand the dynamics of multi-host pathogens and their implications for conservation, disease surveillance and control programmes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0962-8452 , 1471-2954
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2018.2772
    Language: English
    Publisher: The Royal Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1460975-7
    SSG: 12
    SSG: 25
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