Publication Date:
2017-11-03
Description:
The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and
thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors
when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic
Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and
weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation
purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based
on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for
validation, the best performing Earth system models from
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
program (CMIP5—Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of
potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed
that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in
summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping
along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea
ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice
forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic
weather prediction even more important.
Repository Name:
EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
Type:
Article
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isiRev
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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