Abstract: Evidence from the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic demonstrated that pregnant women are particularly vulnerable to infection and at an increased risk of death. Active data collection through the UK Obstetric Surveillance System (UKOSS) about women admitted to hospital during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was used to inform ongoing clinical guidance regarding the use of antiviral treatment for pregnant women and demonstrated that, in addition to an increased risk of maternal morbidity, influenza infection in pregnancy is associated with poor perinatal outcomes, including an increased risk of stillbirth and preterm birth. This evidence influenced the decision to offer routine influenza immunisation to pregnant women. Even in a non-epidemic period, pregnant women continue to die from influenza. Objective To establish, and then to put into hibernation, the study mechanisms needed to mount a rapid investigation of the impact of pandemic influenza in pregnancy in the event of a newly emerging pandemic strain. Design A new UKOSS cohort study was designed, based on the 2009–10 study, and following consultation with the Pandemic Flu Planning Group at the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists and the UKOSS Steering Committee, to identify potential previously unanswered questions. Setting UK maternity units. Participants All pregnant women admitted to hospital with influenza in a future pandemic. Main outcome measures Management of pregnant women with influenza infection, intervention rates, treatment and pregnancy outcome for both the mother and fetus. Results The study was designed and approved by the UKOSS Steering Committee and then placed into hibernation for activation in the event of an influenza pandemic. Conclusions Pregnant women, as a result of their changed immunological status, appear to be particularly susceptible to infection, including from influenza. The existence of the UKOSS enabled us to rapidly mount a study of pregnant women who were hospitalised with 2009 A/H1N1 influenza. Minor modifications to incorporate previously unanswered questions and our previous study enabled us to design, and then put into hibernation, a new study ready to investigate the impact and management of influenza in pregnancy, which is poised for activation in the event of a newly emerging pandemic strain. This will enable real-time data to be available on which to base rapid changes in clinical management as the as-yet-unforeseen pandemic unfolds. In the event of an influenza pandemic the study will be available to be immediately activated following expedited regulatory approvals. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN44137563. Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Abstract: Necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) and late-onset sepsis remain important causes of death and morbidity in preterm babies. Probiotic administration might strengthen intestinal barrier function and provide protection; this is supported by published meta-analyses, but there is a lack of large well-designed trials. Objective To test the use of the probiotic Bifidobacterium breve strain BBG-001 to prevent NEC, late-onset sepsis and death in preterm babies while monitoring probiotic colonisation of participants. Design Double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial. Setting Recruitment was carried out in 24 hospitals, and the randomisation programme used a minimisation algorithm. Parents, clinicians and outcome assessors were blinded to the allocation. Participants Babies born between 23 and 30 weeks’ gestation and randomised within 48 hours of birth. Exclusions included life-threatening or any gastrointestinal malformation detected within 48 hours of birth and no realistic chance of survival. Interventions Active intervention: 1 ml of B. breve BBG-001 in one-eighth-strength infant formula Neocate ® (Nutricia Ltd, Trowbridge, UK), (6.7 × 10 7 to 6.7 × 10 9 colony-forming units) per dose administered enterally. Placebo: 1 ml of one-eighth-strength infant formula Neocate. Started as soon as practicable and continued daily until 36 weeks’ postmenstrual age. Main outcome measures Primary outcomes were an episode of bloodstream infection, with any organism other than a skin commensal, in any baby between 72 hours and 46 weeks’ postmenstrual age; an episode of NEC Bell stage ≥ 2 in any baby; and death before discharge from hospital. Secondary outcomes included stool colonisation with B. breve . Results In total, 654 babies were allocated to receive probiotic and 661 to receive placebo over 37 months from July 2010. Five babies were withdrawn; 650 babies from the probiotic group and 660 from the placebo group were included in the primary analysis. Baseline characteristics were well balanced. There was no evidence of benefit for the primary outcomes {sepsis: 11.2% vs. 11.7% [adjusted relative risk (RR) 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73 to 1.29]; NEC Bell stage ≥ 2: 9.4% vs. 10.0% [adjusted RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.27] ; and death: 8.3% vs. 8.5% [adjusted RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.30]}. B. breve colonisation status was available for 1186 (94%) survivors at 2 weeks’ postnatal age, of whom 724 (61%) were positive: 85% of the probiotic group and 37% of the placebo group. There were no differences for subgroup analyses by minimisation criteria and by stool colonisation with B. breve at 2 weeks. No harms associated with the interventions were reported. Limitations Cross-colonisation of the placebo arm could have reduced statistical power and confounded results; analyses suggest that this did not happen. Conclusions This is the largest trial to date of a probiotic intervention. It shows no evidence of benefit and does not support routine use of probiotics for preterm infants. Future work recommendations The increasing understanding of the pathogenesis of NEC and sepsis will inform the choice of probiotics for testing and better define the target population. Future Phase III trials should incorporate monitoring of the quality and viability of the intervention and colonisation rates of participants; cluster design should be considered. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN05511098 and EudraCT 2006-003445-17. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment ; Vol. 20, No. 66. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Abstract: Early pregnancy complications are common and account for the largest proportion of emergency work in gynaecology. Although early pregnancy assessment units operate in most UK acute hospitals, recent National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guidance emphasised the need for more research to identify configurations that provide the optimal balance between cost-effectiveness, clinical effectiveness and service- and patient-centred outcomes [National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). Ectopic Pregnancy and Miscarriage: Diagnosis and Initial Management . URL: http://guidance.nice.org.uk/CG154 (accessed 23 March 2016)]. Objectives The primary aim was to test the hypothesis that the rate of hospital admissions for early pregnancy complications is lower in early pregnancy assessment units with high consultant presence than in units with low consultant presence. The key secondary objectives were to assess the effect of increased consultant presence on other clinical outcomes, to explore patient satisfaction with the quality of care and to make evidence-based recommendations about the future configuration of UK early pregnancy assessment units. Design The Variations in the organisations of Early Pregnancy Assessment Units in the UK and their effects on clinical, Service and PAtient-centred outcomes (VESPA) study employed a multimethods approach and included a prospective cohort study of women attending early pregnancy assessment units to measure clinical outcomes, an economic evaluation, a patient satisfaction survey, qualitative interviews with service users, an early pregnancy assessment unit staff survey and a hospital emergency care audit. Setting The study was conducted in 44 early pregnancy assessment units across the UK. Participants Participants were pregnant women (aged ≥ 16 years) attending the early pregnancy assessment units or other hospital emergency services because of suspected early pregnancy complications. Staff members directly involved in providing early pregnancy care completed the staff survey. Main outcome measure Emergency hospital admissions as a proportion of women attending the participating early pregnancy assessment units. Methods Data sources – demographic and routine clinical data were collected from all women attending the early pregnancy assessment units. For women who provided consent to complete the questionnaires, clinical data and questionnaires were linked using the women’s study number. Data analysis and results reporting – the relationships between clinical outcomes and consultant presence, unit volume and weekend opening hours were investigated using appropriate regression models. Qualitative interviews with women, and patient and staff satisfaction, health economic and workforce analyses were also undertaken, accounting for consultant presence, unit volume and weekend opening hours. Results We collected clinical data from 6606 women. There was no evidence of an association between admission rate and consultant presence ( p  = 0.497). Health economic evaluation and workforce analysis data strands indicated that lower-volume units with no consultant presence were associated with lower costs than their alternatives. Limitations The relatively low level of direct consultant involvement could explain the lack of significant impact on quality of care. We were also unable to estimate the potential impact of factors such as scanning practices, level of supervision, quality of ultrasound equipment and clinical care pathway protocols. Conclusions We have shown that consultant presence in the early pregnancy assessment unit has no significant impact on key outcomes, such as the proportion of women admitted to hospital as an emergency, pregnancy of unknown location rates, ratio of new to follow-up visits, negative laparoscopy rate and patient satisfaction. All data strands indicate that low-volume units run by senior or specialist nurses and supported by sonographers and consultants may represent the optimal early pregnancy assessment unit configuration. Future work Our results show that further research is needed to assess the potential impact of enhanced clinical and ultrasound training on the performance of all disciplines working in early pregnancy assessment units. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN10728897. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research ; Vol. 8, No. 46. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Abstract: The use of placebo comparisons for randomised trials assessing the efficacy of surgical interventions is increasingly being considered. However, a placebo control is a complex type of comparison group in the surgical setting and, although powerful, presents many challenges. Objectives To provide a summary of knowledge on placebo controls in surgical trials and to summarise any recommendations for designers, evaluators and funders of placebo-controlled surgical trials. Design To carry out a state-of-the-art workshop and produce a corresponding report involving key stakeholders throughout. Setting A workshop to discuss and summarise the existing knowledge and to develop the new guidelines. Results To assess what a placebo control entails and to assess the understanding of this tool in the context of surgery is considered, along with when placebo controls in surgery are acceptable (and when they are desirable). We have considered ethics arguments and regulatory requirements, how a placebo control should be designed, how to identify and mitigate risk for participants in these trials, and how such trials should be carried out and interpreted. The use of placebo controls is justified in randomised controlled trials of surgical interventions provided that there is a strong scientific and ethics rationale. Surgical placebos might be most appropriate when there is poor evidence for the efficacy of the procedure and a justified concern that results of a trial would be associated with a high risk of bias, particularly because of the placebo effect. Conclusions The use of placebo controls is justified in randomised controlled trials of surgical interventions provided that there is a strong scientific and ethics rationale. Feasibility work is recommended to optimise the design and implementation of randomised controlled trials. An outline for best practice was produced in the form of the Applying Surgical Placebo in Randomised Evaluations (ASPIRE) guidelines for those considering the use of a placebo control in a surgical randomised controlled trial. Limitations Although the workshop participants involved international members, the majority of participants were from the UK. Therefore, although every attempt was made to make the recommendations applicable to all health systems, the guidelines may, unconsciously, be particularly applicable to clinical practice in the UK NHS. Future work Future work should evaluate the use of the ASPIRE guidelines in making decisions about the use of a placebo-controlled surgical trial. In addition, further work is required on the appropriate nomenclature to adopt in this space. Funding Funded by the Medical Research Council UK and the National Institute for Health Research as part of the Medical Research Council–National Institute for Health Research Methodology Research programme.

Abstract: Since changes in the national guidance in 2011, prophylactic antibiotics for women undergoing caesarean section are recommended prior to skin incision, rather than after the baby’s umbilical cord has been clamped. Evidence from randomised controlled trials conducted outside the UK has shown that this reduces maternal infectious morbidity; however, the prophylactic antibiotics also cross the placenta, meaning that babies are exposed to them around the time of birth. Antibiotics are known to affect the gut microbiota of the babies, but the long-term effects of exposure to high-dose broad-spectrum antibiotics around the time of birth on allergy and immune-related diseases are unknown. Objectives We aimed to examine whether or not in-utero exposure to antibiotics immediately prior to birth compared with no pre-incisional antibiotic exposure increases the risk of (1) asthma and (2) eczema in children born by caesarean section. Design This was a controlled interrupted time series study. Setting The study took place in primary and secondary care. Participants Children born in the UK during 2006–18 delivered by caesarean section were compared with a control cohort delivered vaginally. Interventions In-utero exposure to antibiotics immediately prior to birth. Main outcome measures Asthma and eczema in children in the first 5 years of life. Additional secondary outcomes, including other allergy-related conditions, autoimmune diseases, infections, other immune system-related diseases and neurodevelopmental conditions, were also assessed. Data sources The Health Improvement Network (THIN) and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care databases and the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database. Previously published linkage strategies were adapted to link anonymised data on mothers and babies in these databases. Duplicate practices contributing to both THIN and the CPRD databases were removed to create a THIN–CPRD data set. Results In the THIN–CPRD and HES data sets, records of 515,945 and 3,945,351 mother–baby pairs were analysed, respectively. The risk of asthma was not significantly higher in children born by caesarean section exposed to pre-incision antibiotics than in children whose mothers received post-cord clamping antibiotics, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.05) for diagnosis of asthma in primary care and an incidence rate ratio of 1.05 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.11) for asthma resulting in a hospital admission. We also did not find an increased risk of eczema, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.94 to1.03) and an incidence rate ratio of 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.29) for diagnosis in primary care and hospital admissions, respectively. Limitations It was not possible to ascertain the exposure to pre-incision antibiotics at an individual level. The maximum follow-up of children was 5 years. Conclusions There was no evidence that the policy change from post-cord clamping to pre-incision prophylactic antibiotics for caesarean sections during 2006–18 had an impact on the incidence of asthma and eczema in early childhood in the UK. Future work There is a need for further research to investigate if pre-incision antibiotics have any impact on developing asthma and other allergy and immune-related conditions in older children. Study registration This study is registered as researchregistry3736. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment ; Vol. 26, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Abstract: Clinical data offer the potential to advance patient care. Neonatal specialised care is a high-cost NHS service received by approximately 80,000 newborn infants each year. Objectives (1) To develop the use of routinely recorded operational clinical data from electronic patient records (EPRs), secure national coverage, evaluate and improve the quality of clinical data, and develop their use as a national resource to improve neonatal health care and outcomes. To test the hypotheses that (2) clinical and research data are of comparable quality, (3) routine NHS clinical assessment at the age of 2 years reliably identifies children with neurodevelopmental impairment and (4) trial-based economic evaluations of neonatal interventions can be reliably conducted using clinical data. (5) To test methods to link NHS data sets and (6) to evaluate parent views of personal data in research. Design Six inter-related workstreams; quarterly extractions of predefined data from neonatal EPRs; and approvals from the National Research Ethics Service, Health Research Authority Confidentiality Advisory Group, Caldicott Guardians and lead neonatal clinicians of participating NHS trusts. Setting NHS neonatal units. Participants Neonatal clinical teams; parents of babies admitted to NHS neonatal units. Interventions In workstream 3, we employed the Bayley-III scales to evaluate neurodevelopmental status and the Quantitative Checklist of Autism in Toddlers (Q-CHAT) to evaluate social communication skills. In workstream 6, we recruited parents with previous experience of a child in neonatal care to assist in the design of a questionnaire directed at the parents of infants admitted to neonatal units. Data sources Data were extracted from the EPR of admissions to NHS neonatal units. Main outcome measures We created a National Neonatal Research Database (NNRD) containing a defined extract from real-time, point-of-care, clinician-entered EPRs from all NHS neonatal units in England, Wales and Scotland ( n  = 200), established a UK Neonatal Collaborative of all NHS trusts providing neonatal specialised care, and created a new NHS information standard: the Neonatal Data Set (ISB 1595) (see http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/±/http://www.isb.nhs.uk/documents/isb-1595/amd-32–2012/index_html ; accessed 25 June 2018). Results We found low discordance between clinical (NNRD) and research data for most important infant and maternal characteristics, and higher prevalence of clinical outcomes. Compared with research assessments, NHS clinical assessment at the age of 2 years has lower sensitivity but higher specificity for identifying children with neurodevelopmental impairment. Completeness and quality are higher for clinical than for administrative NHS data; linkage is feasible and substantially enhances data quality and scope. The majority of hospital resource inputs for economic evaluations of neonatal interventions can be extracted reliably from the NNRD. In general, there is strong parent support for sharing routine clinical data for research purposes. Limitations We were only able to include data from all English neonatal units from 2012 onwards and conduct only limited cross validation of NNRD data directly against data in paper case notes. We were unable to conduct qualitative analyses of parent perspectives. We were also only able to assess the utility of trial-based economic evaluations of neonatal interventions using a single trial. We suggest that results should be validated against other trials. Conclusions We show that it is possible to obtain research-standard data from neonatal EPRs, and achieve complete population coverage, but we highlight the importance of implementing systematic examination of NHS data quality and completeness and testing methods to improve these measures. Currently available EPR data do not enable ascertainment of neurodevelopmental outcomes reliably in very preterm infants. Measures to maintain high quality and completeness of clinical and administrative data are important health service goals. As parent support for sharing clinical data for research is underpinned by strong altruistic motivation, improving wider public understanding of benefits may enhance informed decision-making. Future work We aim to implement a new paradigm for newborn health care in which continuous incremental improvement is achieved efficiently and cost-effectively by close integration of evidence generation with clinical care through the use of high-quality EPR data. In future work, we aim to automate completeness and quality checks and make recording processes more ‘user friendly’ and constructed in ways that minimise the likelihood of missing or erroneous entries. The development of criteria that provide assurance that data conform to prespecified completeness and quality criteria would be an important development. The benefits of EPR data might be extended by testing their use in large pragmatic clinical trials. It would also be of value to develop methods to quality assure EPR data including involving parents, and link the NNRD to other health, social care and educational data sets to facilitate the acquisition of lifelong outcomes across multiple domains. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015017439 (workstream 1) and PROSPERO CRD42012002168 (workstream 3). Funding The National Institute for Health Research Programme Grants for Applied Research programme (£1,641,471). Unrestricted donations were supplied by Abbott Laboratories (Maidenhead, UK: £35,000), Nutricia Research Foundation (Schiphol, the Netherlands: £15,000), GE Healthcare (Amersham, UK: £1000). A grant to support the use of routinely collected, standardised, electronic clinical data for audit, management and multidisciplinary feedback in neonatal medicine was received from the Department of Health and Social Care (£135,494).

Abstract: The traditional method of risk assessment for pre-eclampsia recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence is based on maternal factors and it recommends that high-risk women should be treated with aspirin. An alternative method of screening is based on the competing risk model, which uses Bayes’ theorem to combine maternal factors with mean arterial pressure, the uterine artery pulsatility index, serum placental growth factor and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A at 11–13 weeks’ gestation. Objective The primary aim was to compare the performance of screening by risks obtained using the competing risk model with risk assessment using the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines. Design This was a prospective multicentre observational study. Setting The setting was seven NHS maternity hospitals in England. Participants Participants were women with singleton pregnancy attending for a routine hospital visit at 11 +0 –13 +6 weeks’ gestation between April and December 2016. Main outcome measures The performance of screening for pre-eclampsia by the competing risk model was compared with the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence method. Relative reductions in risk with aspirin prophylaxis of 30% and 60% were assumed for all pre-eclampsia and preterm pre-eclampsia, respectively. The primary comparison was the detection rate of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence method with the detection rate of a mini-combined test (including maternal factors, mean arterial pressure and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A) in the prediction of all pre-eclampsia for the same screen-positive rate determined by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence method. Results In 473 (2.8%) of the 16,747 pregnancies there was development of pre-eclampsia, including 142 (0.8%) women with preterm pre-eclampsia. The screen-positive rate by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence method was 10.3%. For all pre-eclampsia, the false-positive and detection rates by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence method were 9.7% and 31.6%, respectively. For preterm pre-eclampsia, the false-positive and detection rates were 10.0% and 42.8%, respectively. Compliance with the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommendation that high-risk women should be treated with aspirin from the first trimester was 23%. For the same screen-positive rate, the detection rate of the mini-combined test for all pre-eclampsia was 42.8%, which was superior to that of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence method by 11.2% (95% confidence interval 6.9% to 15.6%). The increase in detection for the same screen-positive rate was accompanied by a reduction in false-positive rate of 0.3%. For the same screen-positive rate as National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, the detection rate for preterm pre-eclampsia by combining maternal factors, mean arterial pressure and placental growth factor was 67.3% compared with 44.1% with the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence method. With the addition of the uterine artery pulsatility index, the detection rate was 78.6%. This was higher than that of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence method by 35.5% (95% confidence interval 25.2% to 45.8%). Calibration of risks for pre-eclampsia was generally good, with the calibration slope very close to 1.0. The feasibility of incorporating a new biomarker was demonstrated. However, the addition of inhibin A to the full combined test did not improve the detection rates for all pre-eclampsia and preterm pre-eclampsia (61% and 80%, respectively). The same screening model for preterm pre-eclampsia by a combination of maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, the uterine artery pulsatility index and placental growth factor achieved detection rates of 45.8% and 56.3%, respectively, for preterm small for gestational age and early small for gestational age neonates. Limitation The study did not include a health economic assessment. Conclusion The findings suggest that performance of screening for pre-eclampsia provided by a combination of maternal factors and biomarkers is superior to that achieved by current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines. Future work Future work is required to identify potential biomarkers for further improvement of the competing risk model and to carry out a health economic assessment. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN83611527. Funding This project was funded by the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation programme, a Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) partnership. This will be published in full in Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation ; Vol. 7, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Abstract: Epidural analgesia leads to increased risk of instrumental vaginal delivery (IVD). There is debate about whether or not posture in second-stage labour influences the incidence of spontaneous vaginal birth (SVB). Objectives In nulliparous women with epidural analgesia, does a policy of adopting an ‘upright position’ throughout second-stage labour increase the incidence of SVB compared with a policy of adopting a ‘lying-down’ position? Design Two-arm randomised controlled trial. Setting Maternity units in England and Wales. Participants Nulliparous women aged ≥ 16 years, at ≥ 37 weeks’ gestation with singleton cephalic presentation and intended SVB, in second-stage labour with an epidural providing effective pain relief. Interventions (1) Upright position to maintain the pelvis in as vertical a plane as possible; and (2) lying-down position to maintain the pelvis in as horizontal a plane as possible. Main outcome measures The primary outcome measure was incidence of SVB. Secondary outcomes included augmentation, interventions to maintain blood pressure, duration of labour, episiotomy, genital tract trauma, post-partum haemorrhage, maternal satisfaction, neonatal metabolic acidosis, 5-minute Apgar score of 〈  4, resuscitation at birth and admission to neonatal unit. At 1 year for (1) women: urinary or faecal incontinence, dyspareunia and health-related quality of life; (2) for infants: major morbidity. A cost–consequences analysis with a time horizon of 1 year after the birth from a NHS perspective. Results Between October 2010 and January 2014, 3236 women were randomised from 41 centres in England and Wales. There was a statistically significant difference in the incidence of SVB between groups, with 35.2% of women achieving a SVB in the upright group, compared with 41.1% in the lying-down group (adjusted risk ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.94). There was no evidence of differences in most of the secondary maternal or neonatal outcomes, or in long-term outcomes at the 12-month follow-up. No significant overall cost differences were observed between upright and lying-down positions for mothers or their babies. Limitations Measurement of adherence was challenging in this unmasked trial, and adherence could be influenced by midwives’ beliefs about the allocated positions. If adherence was poor, this would have diluted the difference between the two groups. Conclusions There is clear evidence of the benefit of adopting a lying-down position in second-stage labour in nulliparous women with epidural analgesia, with no apparent disadvantages in either short- or long-term outcomes for mother or baby, and this is cost neutral for the NHS. Future work Questions remain about whether or not other positions could increase the incidence of SVB further in this group of women. The results also raise questions about the role of maternal position in second-stage labour in women without an epidural. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN35706297. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in Health Technology Assessment , Vol 21, No. 65. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Abstract: Currently, pregnant women are screened using ultrasound to perform gestational aging, typically at around 12 weeks’ gestation, and around the middle of pregnancy. Ultrasound scans thereafter are performed for clinical indications only. Objectives We sought to assess the case for offering universal late pregnancy ultrasound to all nulliparous women in the UK. The main questions addressed were the diagnostic effectiveness of universal late pregnancy ultrasound to predict adverse outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of either implementing universal ultrasound or conducting further research in this area. Design We performed diagnostic test accuracy reviews of five ultrasonic measurements in late pregnancy. We conducted cost-effectiveness and value-of-information analyses of screening for fetal presentation, screening for small for gestational age fetuses and screening for large for gestational age fetuses. Finally, we conducted a survey and a focus group to determine the willingness of women to participate in a future randomised controlled trial. Data sources We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library from inception to June 2019. Review methods The protocol for the review was designed a priori and registered. Eligible studies were identified using keywords, with no restrictions for language or location. The risk of bias in studies was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Health economic modelling employed a decision tree analysed via Monte Carlo simulation. Health outcomes were from the fetal perspective and presented as quality-adjusted life-years. Costs were from the perspective of the public sector, defined as NHS England, and the costs of special educational needs. All costs and quality-adjusted life-years were discounted by 3.5% per annum and the reference case time horizon was 20 years. Results Umbilical artery Doppler flow velocimetry, cerebroplacental ratio, severe oligohydramnios and borderline oligohydramnios were all either non-predictive or weakly predictive of the risk of neonatal morbidity (summary positive likelihood ratios between 1 and 2) and were all weakly predictive of the risk of delivering a small for gestational age infant (summary positive likelihood ratios between 2 and 4). Suspicion of fetal macrosomia is strongly predictive of the risk of delivering a large infant, but it is only weakly, albeit statistically significantly, predictive of the risk of shoulder dystocia. Very few studies blinded the result of the ultrasound scan and most studies were rated as being at a high risk of bias as a result of treatment paradox, ascertainment bias or iatrogenic harm. Health economic analysis indicated that universal ultrasound for fetal presentation only may be both clinically and economically justified on the basis of existing evidence. Universal ultrasound including fetal biometry was of borderline cost-effectiveness and was sensitive to assumptions. Value-of-information analysis indicated that the parameter that had the largest impact on decision uncertainty was the net difference in cost between an induced delivery and expectant management. Limitations The primary literature on the diagnostic effectiveness of ultrasound in late pregnancy is weak. Value-of-information analysis may have underestimated the uncertainty in the literature as it was focused on the internal validity of parameters, which is quantified, whereas the greatest uncertainty may be in the external validity to the research question, which is unquantified. Conclusions Universal screening for presentation at term may be justified on the basis of current knowledge. The current literature does not support universal ultrasonic screening for fetal growth disorders. Future work We describe proof-of-principle randomised controlled trials that could better inform the case for screening using ultrasound in late pregnancy. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017064093. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment ; Vol. 25, No. 15. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.