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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios
    IOP Publishing ; 2021
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 16, No. 2 ( 2021-02-01), p. 024049-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 16, No. 2 ( 2021-02-01), p. 024049-
    Abstract: Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr −1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Climate impact emergence and flood peak synchronization projections in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios
    IOP Publishing ; 2022
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 17, No. 9 ( 2022-09-01), p. 094036-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 17, No. 9 ( 2022-09-01), p. 094036-
    Abstract: The densely populated delta of the three river systems of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna is highly prone to floods. Potential climate change-related increases in flood intensity are therefore of major societal concern as more than 40 million people live in flood-prone areas in downstream Bangladesh. Here we report on new flood projections using a hydrological model forced by bias-adjusted ensembles of the latest-generation global climate models of CMIP6 (SSP5-8.5/SSP1-2.6) in comparison to CMIP5 (RCP8.5/RCP2.6). Results suggest increases in peak flow magnitude of 36% (16%) on average under SSP5-8.5 (SSP1-2.6), compared to 60% (17%) under RCP8.5 (RCP2.6) by 2070–2099 relative to 1971–2000. Under RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 (2070–2099), the largest increase in flood risk is projected for the Ganges watershed, where higher flood peaks become the ‘new norm’ as early as mid-2030 implying a relatively short time window for adaptation. In the Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers, the climate impact signal on peak flow emerges after 2070 (CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections). Flood peak synchronization, when annual peak flow occurs simultaneously at (at least) two rivers leading to large flooding events within Bangladesh, show a consistent increase under both projections. While the variability across the ensemble remains high, the increases in flood magnitude are robust in the study basins. Our findings emphasize the need of stringent climate mitigation policies to reduce the climate change impact on peak flows (as presented using SSP1-2.6/RCP2.6) and to subsequently minimize adverse socioeconomic impacts and adaptation costs. Considering Bangladesh’s high overall vulnerability to climate change and its downstream location, synergies between climate change adaptation and mitigation and transboundary cooperation will need to be strengthened to improve overall climate resilience and achieve sustainable development.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ca1
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change
    IOP Publishing ; 2022
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 17, No. 9 ( 2022-09-01), p. 095014-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 17, No. 9 ( 2022-09-01), p. 095014-
    Abstract: Permafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. Here, we compare long permafrost temperature records from 15 boreholes in the northern hemisphere to simulated ground temperatures from Earth system models contributing to CMIP6 using a climate change detection and attribution approach. We show that neither pre-industrial climate variability nor natural drivers of climate change suffice to explain the observed warming in permafrost temperature averaged over all boreholes. However, simulations are consistent with observations if the effects of human emissions on the global climate system are considered. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the effect of anthropogenic climate change on permafrost temperature is detectable at some of the boreholes. Thus, the presented evidence supports the conclusion that anthropogenic climate change is the key driver of northern hemisphere permafrost warming.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Sensitivity of ecosystem-protected permafrost under changing boreal forest structures
    IOP Publishing ; 2021
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 16, No. 8 ( 2021-08-01), p. 084045-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 16, No. 8 ( 2021-08-01), p. 084045-
    Abstract: Boreal forests efficiently insulate underlying permafrost. The magnitude of this insulation effect is dependent on forest density and composition. A change therein modifies the energy and water fluxes within and below the canopy. The direct influence of climatic change on forests and the indirect effect through a change in permafrost dynamics lead to extensive ecosystem shifts such as a change in composition or density, which will, in turn, affect permafrost persistence. We derive future scenarios of forest density and plant functional type composition by analyzing future projections provided by the dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) under global warming scenarios. We apply a detailed permafrost-multilayer canopy model to study the spatial impact-variability of simulated future scenarios of forest densities and compositions for study sites throughout eastern Siberia. Our results show that a change in forest density has a clear effect on the ground surface temperatures (GST) and the maximum active layer thickness (ALT) at all sites, but the direction depends on local climate conditions. At two sites, higher forest density leads to a significant decrease in GSTs in the snow-free period, while leading to an increase at the warmest site. Complete forest loss leads to a deepening of the ALT up to 0.33 m and higher GSTs of over 8  ∘ C independently of local climatic conditions. Forest loss can induce both, active layer wetting up to four times or drying by 50%, depending on precipitation and soil type. Deciduous-dominated canopies reveal lower GSTs compared to evergreen stands, which will play an important factor in the spreading of evergreen taxa and permafrost persistence under warming conditions. Our study highlights that changing density and composition will significantly modify the thermal and hydrological state of the underlying permafrost. The induced soil changes will likely affect key forest functions such as the carbon pools and related feedback mechanisms such as swamping, droughts, fires, or forest loss.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac153d
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
    IOP Publishing ; 2020
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 15, No. 4 ( 2020-04-01), p. 044006-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 15, No. 4 ( 2020-04-01), p. 044006-
    Abstract: Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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