Publication Date:
2018-03-20
Description:
Trends in the hydrographic properties and nutrient concentrations of the Western Baltic from 1980 to 1990 are identified from national and HELCOM data (GESPA) and compared with those of the preceding decades. Found to be generally weak, these trends are analysed and discussed as integrated effects of the biological and chemical sink capacities of the ecosystem, natural effects (meteorological and hydrographic
changes and water exchange), and anthropogenic factors. Measurements in the Kiel Bight are used to study modifications of annual cycles due to climatic fluctuations. It is demonstrated that the Kiel Bight area is representative of a considerable part of the Baltic Sea. The generation of artificial trend signals is discussed as a consequence of non-matching scales of processes and sampling frequencies and of changes in annual cycles, and effects of non-random properties of the data used for statistical treatment.
The results of this discussion are used to evaluate the trends observed during the past
decades. The congruence of the observed nutrient trends in the Kiel Bight and the descriptive and prognostic results of the Wulff and Stigebrandt budget model for the Baltic Sea and some subareas are examined.
Type:
Article
,
PeerReviewed
Format:
text
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