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  • 11
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    The role of energy efficiency in the development of the Iranian energy system : energy scenario analysis (2009)
    Stockholm : Europ. Council for an Energy Efficient Economy | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: Iran is one of the largest oil producers and natural gas owners globally. However, it has to struggle with domestic energy shortages, economic losses through energy subsidisation and inefficient energy infrastructures. Furthermore, GHG and other energy related emissions are rapidly increasing and posing a growing threat to local environment as well as global climate. With current trends prevailing, Iran may even become a net energy importer over the next decades. Resource allocation is therefore a crucial challenge for Iran: domestic consumption stands versus exports of energy. The energy transformation sector clarifies Iran's dilemma: soaring electricity demand leads to blackouts, and power plant new builds are far from using most efficient technologies (e. g. CHP), therefore keeping energy intensive structures. But fossil fuels could be sold on international markets if spared by having more efficient energy infrastructures. As shown by the high energy intensity of its economy, Iran has large potentials for energy saving and efficiency. In order to highlight and better identify this potential the paper contrasts a high efficiency scenario in all sectors of energy transformation and consumption with a possible "business as usual" development. Using a bottom-up approach, the analysis provides a sector-by-sector perspective on energy saving potentials. These can be utilised on the demand side especially in the transport sector (fuels) and in households (electricity for appliances, natural gas for heating). Electricity generation bears efficiency potentials as well. We conclude that Iran, but also the international community, would benefit on various levels from a more energy-efficient Iranian economy: Energy exports could increase, generating more foreign currency and reducing the pressures on international oil and gas prices; energy consumption would decrease, leading to lower needs for nuclear energy and for subsidies to Iranian people, as well as to a reduction of the high external costs entailed by fossil fuels combustion (smog in cities, environmental stress).
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    The role of energy efficiency in the framework of the EU energy and climate strategy : a policy-based scenario analysis (2009)
    Stockholm : Europ. Council for an Energy Efficient Economy | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: Based on a comprehensive scenario analysis of the EU's GHG emissions by 2020, we show that the 20% energy savings target set in the Action Plan "Doing more with less" in 2006 is still the most significant and thus indispensable strategy element within an ambitious EU climate and energy strategy targeting at a 30% reduction of GHG emissions by 2020. The scenario analysis provides a sector by sector projection of potential future energy use and GHG emissions, combined with a detailed policy analysis of the core policies on energy efficiency by the EU and its Member States taken from current research results by the authors and others. Consequently the paper identifies and quantifies the current implementation deficit in the EU and shows that, despite of sufficient targets, implementation is still significantly lacking in almost all fields of energy efficiency. Some, e.g. transport sector and buildings, are still substantially far from receiving the necessary political impetus. The paper also demonstrates co-benefits of a strong energy efficiency strategy, e.g. the achievability of the targets of the RES directive, which crucially depends on a strong efficiency policy. We conclude that the efforts of the energy efficiency policy of the EU and its Member States have to be significantly intensfied. As proposed by the EU in case that other developed and key developing countries take up comparable targets in order to fulfil its role in the climate and energy strategy. To achieve this, we offer an analysis of the current weaknesses of EU energy efficiency policy and derive recommendations on how the EU can still reach its targets for 2020.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 13
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    The double challenge : limiting electricity demand growth while pushing forward electrification of energy demand ; lessons from recent low-carbon roadmaps and scenarios for the EU (2013)
    Stockholm : Europ. Council for an Energy Efficient Economy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: Several low-carbon energy roadmaps and scenarios have recently been published by the European Commission and the International Energy Agency (IEA) as well as by various stakeholders such as Eurelectric, ECF and Greenpeace. Discussions of these studies mainly focus on technology options available on the electricity supply side and mostly omit the significant challenges that all of the scenarios impose on the energy demand side. A comparison of 5 decarbonisation scenarios from 4 of the most relevant recent scenario studies for the EU shows that all of them imply significant efficiency improvements in traditional appliances, usually well above levels historically observed over longer periods of time. At the same time they assume substantial electrification of transportation and heating. The scenarios suggest that both of these challenges need to be tackled successfully for decarbonising the energy system. With shares of renewable electricity reaching at least 60 % of supply in 2050 in almost all of the decarbonisation scenarios, the adaptation of demand to variable supply becomes increasingly important. This aspect of demand side management should therefore be part of any policy mix aiming for a low-carbon power system. Based on a quantitative analysis of 5 decarbonisation scenarios and a comparison with historical evidence we derive the (implicit) new challenges posed by the current low-carbon roadmaps and develop recommendations for energy policy on the electricity demand side.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 14
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    The blessings of energy efficiency in an enhanced EU sustainability scenario (2007)
    Stockholm : Europ. Council for an Energy Efficient Economy | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: Although the anticipated "end of cheap oil" has boosted the interest in energy efficiency as a cornerstone of energy and climate strategies, it is usually taken into account on the basis of rather narrowly defined cost-benefit considerations. As a consequence, substantial ancillary benefits are usually barely considered. In a recent study for the European Parliament (EP), the authors assessed two enhanced climate strategies compared to a more conventional strategy. One enhanced climate policy scenario relies, in particular, on raising the annual pace of energy efficiency improvement. The other aims at a radical boost of the market share of renewable energy forms, which, however, presupposes an equally radical improvement of energy efficiency. The present article presents the scenario results and places them in the context of risk characterisation of the considered climate policy scenarios. Risks of international turmoil and energy price hikes could be reduced if dependency rates for fossil fuel imports went down. A more ambitious climate policy can also strengthen the EU position in post-Kyoto global climate agreements and a moderated need for emission trading can, for example, reduce conflicting pressures on clean technology transfer. On the other hand, the implementation of the efficiency strategy will entail increased domestic risks because it will involve a re-prioritisation of resource allocation and will thus affect the current distribution of wealth in both the energy sector and some other closely related sectors. The article outlines the main drivers behind the ambitious energy efficiency scenario and it attaches tentative price tags to the ancillary effects, with special emphasis on the above sketched swapping of risks. It will, therefore, strongly argue for a more holistic view, which underscores the need for political action and the benefits of such proactive policies in favour of energy efficiency.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    The impact of EU emissions trading and the linking directive on the potential for joint implementation (JI) projects in six EU accession countries (2005)
    Stockholm : Europ. Council for an Energy Efficient Economy | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: There is an extensive potential for GHG emission reductions in the new EU member states and the EU accession countries by improving energy efficiency, investing in renewable energy supply and other measures, part of which could be tapped by JI. However, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and especially the recently adopted "Linking Directive" is probably going to have a significant impact on this JI potential. Especially two provisions are important: The baseline of a project has to be based on the acquis communautaire, the environmental regulations of which are substantially higher than the Accession Countries' existing ones. Projects, which directly or indirectly reduce emissions from installations falling within the scope of the EU ETS, can only generate certificates if an equal number of EU allowances are cancelled. JI is thus put into direct competition with the EU ETS. In this paper we analyse the impact of these provisions first in theory and then country by country for six Central and East European countries that recently acceded the EU or are candidates for accession. As a result, we give an overview of the potential and the limitations of JI as an instrument for achieving emission reductions in the selected Accession Countries and provide important overview information to policy makers.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    Energy efficiency as a key element of the EU's post-Kyoto strategy : results of an integrated scenario analysis (2005)
    Stockholm : Europ. Council for an Energy Efficient Economy | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: Under the framework of the UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol the targets and strategies for the second and third commitment period ("post-2012") have to be discussed and set in the near future. Regarding the substantial emission reductions that have to be shouldered by the industrialized nations over the next two decades it is evident that all available potentials to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have to be harnessed and that energy efficiency has to play a key role. To substantiate this we developed a comprehensive scenario analysis of the EU 25s energy system and other greenhouse gas emissions until 2020. Our analysis shows which key potentials to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are available, by which policies and measures they are attainable and which will be benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation measures. By this analysis we show the mayor role of energy efficiency in all sectors and all member states. We demonstrate that a reduction of EU 25 greenhouse gas emissions by more than 30 % by 2020 is feasible, reasonable and - to a large extent - cost effective. We also develop a comprehensive policy package necessary to achieve ambitious Post-Kyoto targets. The scenario analysis results in a clear identification of the needed strategies, policies and measures and especially the relevance of energy efficiency to achieve the necessary ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets. It also clearly shows the costs and the benefits of such a policy compared to a business as usual case.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 17
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    The potential role of energy efficiency in the transition to a low carbon society : a critical scenario review (2011)
    Stockholm : Europ. Council for an Energy Efficient Economy | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: International consensus is growing that a transition towards a low carbon society (LCS) is needed over the next 40 years. The G8, the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, as well as the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have concluded that states should prepare their own Low-emission Plans or Low-emission Development Plans and such plans are in development in an increasing number of countries. An analysis of recent long-term low emission scenarios for Germany shows that all scenarios rely heavily on a massive scale up of energy efficiency improvements based on past trends. However, in spite of the high potential that scenario developers assign to this strategy, huge uncertainty still exists in respect of where the efficiency potentials really lie, how and if they can be achieved and how much their successful implementation depends on more fundamental changes towards a more sustainable society (e.g. behavioural changes). In order to come to a better understanding of this issue we specifically examine the potential for energy efficiency in relation to particular demand sectors. Our comparative analysis shows that despite general agreement about the high importance of energy efficiency (EE), the perception on where and how to achieve it differ between the analysed scenarios. It also shows that the close nexus between energy efficiency and non-technical behavioural aspects is still little understood. This leads us to the conclusion that in order to support energy policy decisions more research should be done on energy efficiency potential. A better understanding of its potential would help energy efficiency to fulfil its role in the transition towards a LCS.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 18
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    Deep decarbonisation pathways for the industrial cluster of the Port of Rotterdam (2018)
    Stockholm : Europ. Council for an Energy Efficient Economy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: The Port of Rotterdam is an important industrial cluster mainly comprising of oil refining, chemical manufacturing and power and steam generation. In 2015, the area accounted for 18 % of the Netherlands' total CO2 emissions. The Port of Rotterdam Authority is aware that the port's economy is heavily exposed to future global and EU decarbonization policies, as the bulk of its activities focuses on trading, handling, converting and using fossil fuels. Based on a study for the Port Authority, our paper explores possible pathways of how the industrial cluster can keep its strong market position in Europe and still reduce its CO2 emissions by 98 % by 2050. The "Biomass and CCS" scenario assumes that large amounts of biomass can be supplied sustainably and will be used in the port for power generation as well as for feedstock for refineries and the chemical industry. Fischer-Tropsch fuel generation plays an important role in this scenario, allowing the port to become a key cluster for the production of synthetic fuels and feedstocks in Western Europe. The "Closed Carbon Cycle" scenario assumes that renewables-based electricity will be used at the port to supply heat and hydrogen for the synthetic generation of feedstock for the chemical industry. The carbon required for the chemicals will stem from recycled waste. Technologies particularly needed in this scenario are water electrolysis and gasification or pyrolysis to capture carbon from waste, as well as technologies for the production of base chemicals from syngas. The paper compares both scenarios with regard to their respective technological choices and infrastructural changes. The scenarios’ particular opportunities and challenges are also discussed. Using possible future pathways of a major European petrochemical cluster as an example, the paper illustrates options for deep decarbonisation of energy intensive industries in the EU and beyond.
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 19
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    Re-industrialisation and low carbon economy - can they go together? : Results from transdisciplinary scenarios for energy intensive industries (2014)
    Stockholm : Europ. Council for an Energy Efficient Economy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: This paper draws upon an extensive transdisciplinary scenario development in the context of the stakeholder oriented preparation of the climate protection plan of the German federal state North Rhine-Westphalia, which is home to the most important heavy industry cluster in Europe. In that context we developed differentiated bottom up climate change mitigation strategies and scenarios for the major energy intensive industries aluminium, iron and steel, cement, lime, paper and steam cracker for olefin production together with representatives of industry as well as society.
    Keywords: ddc:300
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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