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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Constraining Projection-Based Estimates of the Future North Atlantic Carbon Uptake
    American Meteorological Society ; 2018
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 31, No. 10 ( 2018-05), p. 3959-3978
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 31, No. 10 ( 2018-05), p. 3959-3978
    Abstract: The North Atlantic is one of the major sinks for anthropogenic carbon in the global ocean. Improved understanding of the underlying mechanisms is vital for constraining future projections, which presently have high uncertainties. To identify some of the causes behind this uncertainty, this study investigates the North Atlantic’s anthropogenically altered carbon uptake and inventory, that is, changes in carbon uptake and inventory due to rising atmospheric CO 2 and climate change (abbreviated as [Formula: see text]-uptake and [Formula: see text] -inventory). Focus is set on an ensemble of 11 Earth system models and their simulations of a future with high atmospheric CO 2 . Results show that the model spread in the [Formula: see text]-uptake originates in middle and high latitudes. Here, the annual cycle of oceanic pCO 2 reveals inherent model mechanisms that are responsible for different model behavior: while it is SST-dominated for models with a low future [Formula: see text]-uptake, it is dominated by deep winter mixing and biological production for models with a high future [Formula: see text] -uptake. Models with a high future [Formula: see text]-uptake show an efficient carbon sequestration and hence store a large fraction of their contemporary North Atlantic [Formula: see text] -inventory below 1000-m depth, while the opposite is true for models with a low future [Formula: see text]-uptake. Constraining the model ensemble with observation-based estimates of carbon sequestration and summer oceanic pCO 2 anomalies yields later flattening of the [Formula: see text]-uptake than previously estimated. This result highlights the need to depart from the concept of unconstrained model ensembles in order to reduce uncertainties associated with future projections.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0564.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Compatible Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions in the CMIP6 Earth System Models’ Historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Experiments of the Twenty-First Century
    American Meteorological Society ; 2021
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 34, No. 8 ( 2021-04), p. 2853-2875
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 34, No. 8 ( 2021-04), p. 2853-2875
    Abstract: We present the compatible CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel (FF) burning and industry, calculated from the historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) experiments of nine Earth system models (ESMs) participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multimodel mean FF emissions match the historical record well and are close to the data-based estimate of cumulative emissions (394 ± 59 GtC vs 400 ± 20 GtC, respectively). Only two models fall inside the observed uncertainty range; while two exceed the upper bound, five fall slightly below the lower bound, due primarily to the plateau in CO 2 concentration in the 1940s. The ESMs’ diagnosed FF emission rates are consistent with those generated by the integrated assessment models (IAMs) from which the SSPs’ CO 2 concentration pathways were constructed; the simpler IAMs’ emissions lie within the ESMs’ spread for seven of the eight SSP experiments, the other being only marginally lower, providing confidence in the relationship between the IAMs’ FF emission rates and concentration pathways. The ESMs require fossil fuel emissions to reduce to zero and subsequently become negative in SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, and SSP5-3.4over. We also present the ocean and land carbon cycle responses of the ESMs in the historical and SSP scenarios. The models’ ocean carbon cycle responses are in close agreement, but there is considerable spread in their land carbon cycle responses. Land-use and land-cover change emissions have a strong influence over the magnitude of diagnosed fossil fuel emissions, with the suggestion of an inverse relationship between the two.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0991.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0991.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Nonlinearity of Ocean Carbon Cycle Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models
    American Meteorological Society ; 2014
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 27, No. 11 ( 2014-06-01), p. 3869-3888
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 27, No. 11 ( 2014-06-01), p. 3869-3888
    Abstract: Carbon cycle feedbacks are usually categorized into carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks, which arise owing to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and changing physical climate. Both feedbacks are often assumed to operate independently: that is, the total feedback can be expressed as the sum of two independent carbon fluxes that are functions of atmospheric CO2 and climate change, respectively. For phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), radiatively and biogeochemically coupled simulations have been undertaken to better understand carbon cycle feedback processes. Results show that the sum of total ocean carbon uptake in the radiatively and biogeochemically coupled experiments is consistently larger by 19–58 petagrams of carbon (Pg C) than the uptake found in the fully coupled model runs. This nonlinearity is small compared to the total ocean carbon uptake (533–676 Pg C), but it is of the same order as the carbon–climate feedback. The weakening of ocean circulation and mixing with climate change makes the largest contribution to the nonlinear carbon cycle response since carbon transport to depth is suppressed in the fully relative to the biogeochemically coupled simulations, while the radiatively coupled experiment mainly measures the loss of near-surface carbon owing to warming of the ocean. Sea ice retreat and seawater carbon chemistry contribute less to the simulated nonlinearity. The authors’ results indicate that estimates of the ocean carbon–climate feedback derived from “warming only” (radiatively coupled) simulations may underestimate the reduction of ocean carbon uptake in a warm climate high CO2 world.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00452.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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