Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
The goal of this paper is to yield physical constrains on
the nature and evolution of a seismic swarm by means of a
quantitative stochastic modeling of earthquakes occurrence.
With this purpose, we fit different stationary and
nonstationary stochastic ETAS models to the Izu Islands
seismic swarm occurred in 2000. We find that a
nonstationary model with background activity and p-value
varying through time describes the observations better than
other simpler ETAS models. The coherent fluctuations of
these parameters and of the spatio-temporal earthquake
distribution are interpreted in terms of a magma/fluids
source process that evolves through outbursts of activity
superimposed to low frequency variations. The results
obtained suggest that suitable nonstationary ETAS
modeling can be very useful to characterize the nature of
the swarm source, and it may provide the basis to build a
quantitative tool for tracking in almost real-time the
evolution of a magma/fluids source.
Description:
Published
Description:
L07310
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
reserved
Keywords:
volcanic seismic
;
Izu Islands swarm
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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