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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-08-01
    Description: Simulations with a free-running coupled climate model show that heat release associated with Southern Ocean deep convection variability can drive centennial-scale Antarctic temperature variations of up to 2.0 °C. The mechanism involves three steps: Preconditioning: heat accumulates at depth in the Southern Ocean; Convection onset: wind and/or sea-ice changes tip the buoyantly unstable system into the convective state; Antarctic warming: fast sea-ice–albedo feedbacks (on annual–decadal timescales) and slow Southern Ocean frontal and sea-surface temperature adjustments to convective heat release (on multidecadal–century timescales) drive an increase in atmospheric heat and moisture transport toward Antarctica. We discuss the potential of this mechanism to help drive and amplify climate variability as observed in Antarctic ice-core records.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (13). pp. 6951-6958.
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: Global climate models exhibit large biases in the Southern Ocean. For example, in models Antarctic bottom water is formed mostly through open-ocean deep-convection rather than through shelf convection. Still, the timescale, region, and intensity of deep-convection variability vary widely among models. We investigate the physical controls of this variability in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, where most of the models simulate recurring deep-convection events. We analyzed output from eleven exemplary CMIP5 models and four versions of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Of several potential physical control parameters that we tested, the ones shared by all these models are: Stratification in the convection region influences the timescale of the deep-convection variability, i.e. models with a strong (weak) stratification vary on long (short) timescales. And, sea ice volume affects the modeled mean state in the Southern Ocean: large (small) sea ice volume is associated with a non-convective (convective) predominant regime.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: Characteristics of the seasonal and interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) over last two interglacials, the Holocene and Eemian, are analyzed using transient climate simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). There is a tendency towards a strengthening of the seasonal as well as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation‐ (ENSO) related variability from the early to the late interglacials. The weaker EEP SST annual cycle during the early interglacials is mainly result of insolation‐forced cooling during its warm phase and dynamically‐induced warming during its cold phase. Enhanced convection over northern South America weakens northeasterlies in the EEP leading to weaker equatorial upwelling, deeper thermocline and subsequent warming in this region. We show that a negative ENSO modulation of the annual cycle operates only on short timescales and does not affect their evolution on orbital time scales where both ENSO and annual cycle show similar tendencies to increase.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (19). pp. 9957-9966.
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: Proxy data suggest the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation during the Plio-Pleistocene transition from 3.2 to 2.5 Ma resulted in enhanced climate variability at the obliquity (41 kyr) frequency. Here, we investigate the influence of the expanding Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) on the mean climate and obliquity-related variability in a series of climate model simulations. These suggest that an expanding GrIS weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) by ~1 Sv, mainly due to reduced heat loss in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea. Moreover, the growing GrIS amplifies the Hadley circulation response to obliquity forcing driving variations in freshwater export from the tropical Atlantic and in turn variations of the AMOC. The stronger AMOC response to obliquity forcing, by about a factor of two, results in a stronger global-mean near-surface temperature response. We conclude that the AMOC response to obliquity forcing is important to understand the enhanced climate variability at the obliquity frequency during the Plio-Pleistocene transition.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (7). pp. 2401-2408.
    Publication Date: 2017-04-10
    Description: A long-standing problem in climate modeling is the inaccurate simulation of tropical Atlantic (TA) sea surface temperature (SST), known as the TA SST bias. It has far-reaching consequences for climate prediction in that area as it goes along, among others, with erroneous precipitation patterns. We show that the TA SST bias can be largely reduced by increasing both the atmospheric horizontal and vertical resolution in a climate model. At high horizontal resolution, enhanced vertical resolution is indispensable to substantially improve the simulation of TA SST by enhancing surface wind stress. This also reduces biases in the upper ocean thermal structure and precipitation patterns. Although, enhanced horizontal resolution alone leads to some improvement in the mean climate, typical bias patterns characterized by a reversed zonal SST gradient at the equator and too warm SST in the Benguela upwelling region are mostly unchanged at a coarser vertical resolution.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 6
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 120 (2). pp. 1133-1151.
    Publication Date: 2019-04-04
    Description: Observations show that the Equatorial Atlantic Zonal Mode (ZM) obeys similar physics to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): positive Bjerknes and delayed negative feedbacks. This implies the ZM may be predictable on seasonal timescales, but models demonstrate little prediction skill in this region. In this study using different configurations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) exhibiting different levels of systematic error, we show that a reasonable simulation of the ZM depends on realistic representation of the mean state, i.e., surface easterlies along the equator, upward sloping thermocline to the east, with an equatorial SST cold tongue in the east. We further attribute the differences in interannual variability among the simulations to the individual components of the positive Bjerknes and delayed negative feedbacks. Differences in the seasonality of the variability are similarly related to the impact of seasonal biases on the Bjerknes feedback. Our results suggest that model physics must be enhanced to enable skillful seasonal predictions in the Tropical Atlantic Sector, although some improvement with regard to the simulation of Equatorial Atlantic interannual variability may be achieved by momentum flux correction. This pertains especially to the seasonal phase locking of interannual SST variability.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 7
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Paleoceanography, 25 . PA4217.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Past sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are routinely estimated from organic and inorganic remains of fossil phytoplankton or zooplankton organisms, recovered from sea floor sediments. Potential seasonal biases of paleo proxies were intensely studied in the past, however, even for the two most commonly used paleo proxies for SST, UK0 37 and Mg/Ca ratios, a clear global picture does not yet exist. In the present study we combine Holocene SST trends derived from UK0 37 and Mg/Ca ratios with results from idealized climate model simulations forced by changes in the orbital conguration, which represents the major climate driver over the last 10 kyrs. Such changes cause a spatio-temporal redistribution of incoming solar radiation resulting in a modulation of amplitude and phasing of the seasonal cycle. Considering that the climate signal recorded by a plankton-based paleo proxy may be aected by the seasonal productivity cycle of the respective organism, we use the modern relationship between SST and marine net primary production (NPP), both obtained from satellite observations, to calculate a seasonality index (SI) as an independent constraint to link modeled SST trends with proxy data. Although the climate model systematically underestimates Holocene SST trends, we find that seasonal productivity peaks of the phytoplankton-based UK0 37 result in a preferential registering of the warm (cold) season in high (low) latitudes, as it was expected from the SI distribution. The overall smoother trends from the zooplankton-derived Mg/Ca-SSTs suggest a more integrated signal over longer time averages, which may also carry a seasonal bias, but the spatial pattern is less clear. Based on our ndings, careful multi-proxy approaches can actually go beyond the reconstruction of average climate trends, specifically allowing to resolve the evolution of seasonality.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 8
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 37 . L24702.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), the two leading decadal modes of observed Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature (SST) variability, are investigated in a multi-millennial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). It is shown that the two phenomena are independent modes in the model and can be easily separated by Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis of model SST. PDVrelated variability covers the whole North Pacific with strong signals in both the mid-latitude North Pacific and the western Tropical Pacific. Strong signals are also simulated in the eastern Indian Ocean Sector. PDV’s memory, however, resides in the North Pacific and is linked to the subtropical gyre. The AMV mechanism is related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). A stochastic mechanism applies to both PDV and AMV.
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  • 9
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 39 . L15708.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The intensity of the two major atmospheric tropical circulations, the Hadley and Walker circulation, has been analyzed in simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) of the early Eemian and the early Holocene, both warmer climate epochs compared to the late Holocene, or pre-industrial era. The KCM was forced by changes in orbital parameters corresponding to the early and late Holocene (9.5kyr BP and pre-industrial) and the early Eemian (126kyr BP). An intensification of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter Hadley cell and a northward extension of its rising branch, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, relative to pre-industrial are simulated for both warm periods. The Walker circulation's rising branch is shifted westward towards the Indian Ocean due to an increased zonal tropical sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the Indo-Pacific Ocean, which drives enhanced easterlies over this region. The simulated vertically-integrated water vapor transport across the Equator shows the strongest response for the SH winter (boreal summer) Hadley cell over the Pacific Ocean due to an enhanced cross-equatorial SST gradient in the tropical Pacific during the early Holocene and the early Eemian. The orbitally-induced increase of the cross-equatorial insolation gradient in the tropical Pacific leads to a strengthening (weakening) of the wind speed and enhanced (reduced) evaporative cooling over the southern (northern) tropical Pacific, which reinforces the initial radiatively-forced meridional SST gradient change. The increased cross-equatorial insolation gradient in combination with the strong wind-evaporation-SST feedback and changing humidity are important mechanisms to enhance the SH winter Hadley circulation response to orbital forcing. Key Points: Intensification of the SH winter Hadley cell for the early Holocene and Eemian. Walker circulation's rising branch is shifted westward towards the Indian Ocean. WES feedback plays key role in intensification of the Hadley circulation.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 10
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 35 . L11701.
    Publication Date: 2017-11-08
    Description: Observed multidecadal variability (30 yr running means, trends, and moving standard deviations) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the instrumental record is compared to that simulated by two different coupled general circulation models in extended-range control experiments. Simulated NAO exhibits strong low frequency fluctuations, even on multi-centennial time scale. Observed multi-decadal NAO variations agree well with the model variability. Trend probability distribution functions, observed and simulated, were not found to be different with statistical significance. Thus, multi-decadal NAO changes similar to those observed during the instrumental record, including the recent increase in 1965–1995, may be internally generated within the coupled atmosphere-ocean system without considering external forcing.
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