Description: Large submarine landslides can have serious socioeconomic consequences as they have the potential to cause tsunamis and damage seabed infrastructure. It is important to understand the frequency of these landslides, and how that frequency is related to climate-driven factors such as sea level or sedimentation rate, in order to assess their occurrence in the future. Recent studies have proposed that more landslides occur during periods of sea level rise and lowstand, or during periods of rapid sedimentation. In this contribution we test these hypotheses by analysing the most comprehensive global data set of ages for large (〉1 km3) late Quaternary submarine landslides that has been compiled to date. We include the uncertainties in each landslide age that arise from both the dating technique, and the typically larger uncertainties that result from the position of the samples used for dating. Contrary to the hypothesis that continental slope stability is linked to sea level change, the data set does not show statistically significant patterns, trends or clusters in landslide abundance. If such a link between sea level and landslide frequency exists it is too weak to be detected using the available global data base. It is possible that controlling factors vary between different geographical areas, and their role is therefore hidden in a global data set, or that the uncertainties within the dates is too great to see an underlying correlation. Our analysis also shows that there is no evidence for an immediate influence of rapid sedimentation on slope stability as failures tend to occur several thousand years after periods of increased sedimentation rates. The results imply that there is not a strong global correlation of landslide frequency with sea level changes or increases in local sedimentation rate, based on the currently available ages for large submarine landslides.

Description: Submarine landslides are one of the major mechanisms through which sediment is transported across our planet, and it has been proposed that they can generate exceptionally damaging tsunamis. Polar margins represent one of the environmental settings where these events have been identified. A large number of triggers and preconditioning factors have been proposed as possible causes for these events; including earthquakes, rapid sedimentation and gas hydrate dissociation. Rapid climate change in the Arctic has the potential to impact on these preconditioning and triggering factors. First, crustal rebound associated with ice melting is likely to produce larger and more frequent earthquakes. Second, Arctic Ocean warming over the next few decades may lead to dissociation of methane hydrates in marine sediments, thereby weakening sediment. In order to better understand whether landslide frequency will increase in the future, we need to determine whether landslide frequency has been affected by previous episodes of rapid climate or eustatic sea level change. Previous working whether landslide frequency is affected strongly by climatic change has been based predominantly on qualitative analysis, and has concluded that event clustering has occurred under specific environmental conditions. In contrast, two recent statistical investigations of submarine landslides have found events frequencies to follow a Poissonian distribution and thus are temporally random (Urlaub et al, 2013, QSR; Clare et al., Geology, Vol 42 (3)). However, these recent studies acknowledge the significant uncertainties in most landslide dates, and that these uncertainties could mask underlying relationships with climate or sea level. This presentation extends previous statistical work to assess whether landslide frequency is most likely temporally random, or whether the dating is just too uncertain to tell. Chi-Squared statistics are used to explore the extent to which we can be statistically sure that submarine landslides do indeed follow a Poissonian distribution. This is achieved by analysing the ease with which ordered frequency data can appear Poissonian according to the Chi-Squared statistic and the number of events needed before a certain distribution can be guaranteed. From this we are able comment on the extent to which we can use event frequency as a means with which to analyse triggers and preconditioning factors. We can also assess the implications for future submarine landslide risk analysis.

Description: Submarine landslides on open continental slopes can be prodigious in scale. They are an important process for global sediment fluxes, and can generate very damaging tsunamis. Submarine landslides are far harder to monitor directly than terrestrial landslides, and much greater uncertainty surrounds their preconditioning factors and triggers. Submarine slope failure often occurs on remarkably low (〈 2°) gradients that are almost always stable on land, indicating that particularly high excess pore pressures must be involved. Earthquakes trigger some large submarine landslides, but not all major earthquakes cause widespread slope failure. The headwalls of many large submarine landslides appear to be located in water depths that are too deep for triggering by gas hydrate dissociation. The available evidence indicates that landslide occurrence is either weakly (or not) linked to changes in sea level or atmospheric methane abundance, or the available dates for open continental slope landslides are too imprecise to tell. Similarly, available evidence does not strongly support a view that landslides play an important role in methane emissions that cause climatic change. However, the largest and best-dated open continental slope landslide (the Storegga Slide) coincides with a major cooling event 8,200 years ago. This association suggests that caution may be needed when stating that there is no link between large open slope landslides and climate change.

Description: Submarine landslides on open continental slopes can be far larger than any slope failure on land and occur in locations worldwide on gradients of 〈2°. Significantly elevated pore pressure is necessary to overcome the sediment’s shearing resistance on such remarkably low gradients, but the processes causing such overpressure generation are contentious, especially in areas with slow sedimentation rates. Here we propose that the progressive loss of interparticle bonding and fabric could cause such high excess pore pressure. Slow sedimentation may favour the formation of a structural framework in the sediment that is load-bearing until yield stress is reached. The bonds then break down, causing an abrupt porosity decrease and consequently overpressure as pore fluid cannot escape sufficiently rapidly. To test this hypothesis, we implement such a loss of structure into a 2D fully coupled stress-fluid flow Finite Element model of a submerged low angle slope, and simulate consolidation due to slow sedimentation. The results suggest that destructuring could indeed be a critical process for submarine slope stability.

Description: Overpressure generation due to rapid sediment deposition can result in low effective stresses within the sediment column. It has been proposed that these large overpressures are the main preconditioning factor for causing large-scale submarine slope failure on passive continental margins, such as those in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Norway. The rate of overpressure generation depends on the sedimentation rate, sediment compressibility and permeability. The Gulf of Mexico and the Norwegian continental slope have experienced comparatively high sediment input, but large-scale slope failure also occurs in locations with very low sedimentation rates such as the Northwest African continental margin. Here we show results from 2D numerical modelling of a 2° continental slope subjected to deposition rates of 0.15 m/ka. These results do not indicate any evidence for significant overpressure or slope instability. We conclude that factors other than overpressure must be fundamental for initiating slope failure, at least in locations with low sedimentation rates.

Description: Overpressure generation due to rapid sediment deposition can result in low effective stresses within the sediment column. It has been proposed that these large overpressures are the main preconditioning factor for causing large-scale submarine slope failure on passive continental margins, such as those in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Norway. The rate of overpressure generation depends on the sedimentation rate, sediment compressibility and permeability. The Gulf of Mexico and the Norwegian continental slope have experienced comparatively high sediment input, but large-scale slope failure also occurs in locations with very low sedimentation rates such as the Northwest African continental margin. Here we show results from 2D numerical modelling of a 2° continental slope subjected to deposition rates of 0.15 m/ka. These results do not indicate any evidence for significant overpressure or slope instability. We conclude that factors other than overpressure must be fundamental for initiating slope failure, at least in locations with low sedimentation rates.

Description: Submarine landslides on open continental slopes can be far larger than any slope failure on land and occur in locations worldwide on gradients of 〈2°. Significantly elevated pore pressure is necessary to overcome the sediment’s shearing resistance on such remarkably low gradients, but the processes causing such overpressure generation are contentious, especially in areas with slow sedimentation rates. Here we propose that the progressive loss of interparticle bonding and fabric could cause such high excess pore pressure. Slow sedimentation may favour the formation of a structural framework in the sediment that is load-bearing until yield stress is reached. The bonds then break down, causing an abrupt porosity decrease and consequently overpressure as pore fluid cannot escape sufficiently rapidly. To test this hypothesis, we implement such a loss of structure into a 2D fully coupled stress-fluid flow Finite Element model of a submerged low angle slope, and simulate consolidation due to slow sedimentation. The results suggest that destructuring could indeed be a critical process for submarine slope stability.