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  • 1
    In: Climate Services, Elsevier BV, Vol. 10 ( 2018-04), p. 20-32
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2405-8807
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2858351-6
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2016
    In:  Regional Environmental Change Vol. 16, No. 7 ( 2016-10), p. 2129-2140
    In: Regional Environmental Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 16, No. 7 ( 2016-10), p. 2129-2140
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1436-3798 , 1436-378X
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1480672-1
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2024
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Vol. 129, No. 2 ( 2024-02)
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 129, No. 2 ( 2024-02)
    Abstract: Climate change may drive shifts to fire regimes with more frequent and larger fires in the moist temperate forests of the Pacific Northwest Describing uncertainties of how, when, and where climate change may alter fire regimes helps bracket expectations for the future The largest increases to burn probability, fire size, and number of fires are projected to occur in the cooler, wetter parts of the region
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-8953 , 2169-8961
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094167-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2220777-6
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Elsevier BV ; 2020
    In:  Forest Ecology and Management Vol. 463 ( 2020-05), p. 117985-
    In: Forest Ecology and Management, Elsevier BV, Vol. 463 ( 2020-05), p. 117985-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0378-1127
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016648-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 751138-3
    SSG: 23
    SSG: 12
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  • 5
    In: Forests, MDPI AG, Vol. 11, No. 6 ( 2020-06-01), p. 618-
    Abstract: We demonstrate a generalizable approach for assessing climate change effects on tribally important ecosystem goods and services. Indigenous peoples may be highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because they rely on ecosystem goods and services, such as traditional foods, hunting, timber production, nontimber forest resources, and cultural resources. However, there are few assessments that have examined the potential impact of climate change on these goods and services and even less that examine ecological, socio-economic, and cultural resources in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Our approach uses four basic steps: (1) identify 78 tribally important ecosystem services (species and resources), (2) relate those ecosystem services with biologically relevant vegetation projections from a dynamic global vegetation model, (3) identify appropriate timeframes and future climate scenarios, and (4) assess future changes for vegetation types and ecosystem services. We then highlight how model uncertainty can be explored to better inform resilience building and adaptation planning. We found that more than half of the species and resources analyzed may be vulnerable to climate change due to loss of potential habitat, including aridland species and grazing quality. We further highlight our findings for tribally important species, huckleberries (genus Vaccinium) and bitterbrush (Purshia tridentate (Pursh) DC.), and show how this information can be applied to help inform resource management and adaptation planning. We have demonstrated a generalizable approach that identified tribally important ecosystem services and related them with biologically relevant vegetation projections from a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Although our assessment is focused in the Pacific Northwest, our approach can be applied in other regions for which model data is available. We recognize that there is some inherent uncertainty associated with using model output for future scenario planning; however, if that uncertainty is addressed and applied as demonstrated by our approach, it then can be explored to help inform resource management and adaptation planning.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1999-4907
    Language: English
    Publisher: MDPI AG
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2527081-3
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  • 6
    In: Ecosphere, Wiley, Vol. 14, No. 2 ( 2023-02)
    Abstract: Invasive annual grasses are a growing global concern because they facilitate larger and more frequent fires in historically fuel‐limited ecosystems. Forests of the western United States have remained relatively resistant to invasion by annual grasses and their subsequent impacts. However, where forests are adjacent to invaded areas, increased fire spread across ecotones could alter fire behavior and ecosystem resilience. In the Inland Northwest, USA, recent invasion by the annual grass ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ) has increased fine fuel loads and continuity in nonforest patches embedded within the forested landscape. Despite ventenata's rapid spread across the American West and growing management concern, little is known regarding how invasion influences fire within invaded vegetation types or its potential to alter landscape‐scale fire and management practices. Here, we examine how the ventenata invasion alters simulated fire across forest‐mosaic landscapes of the 7 million ha Blue Mountains Ecoregion using the large fire simulator (FSim) with custom fuel landscapes: present‐day invaded versus historic uninvaded. Invasion increased simulated mean fire size, burn probability, and flame lengths throughout the ecoregion, and the strength of these impacts varied by location and scale. Changes at the ecoregion scale were relatively modest given that fine fuels increased in only 2.8% of the ecoregion where ventenata invaded historically fuel‐limited vegetation types. However, strong localized changes were simulated within invaded patches (primarily dwarf‐shrublands) and where invasion facilitated fire spread into nearby forests. Within invaded patches, burn probabilities increased by 45%, and higher flame lengths required fire management strategies to shift from direct to indirect attack, requiring large machinery. Forests with 25% of their neighborhood invaded experienced a 28% increase in burn probability and 16% increase in the probability of experiencing flame lengths likely to produce crown fire (flame lengths 〉 2.4 m). Increased canopy loss could have severe implications for forest resilience given that invasive grasses can heavily invade early seral dry conifer forests and limit postfire forest recovery. Our study demonstrates how annual grass invasion can influence fire behavior and resilience across forest landscapes despite primarily invading nonforested areas, and highlights invasion as an important management issue in an expansive forest‐mosaic ecosystem.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2150-8925 , 2150-8925
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2572257-8
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  • 7
    In: Ecosphere, Wiley, Vol. 13, No. 6 ( 2022-06)
    Abstract: Wildfires devastated communities in Oregon and Washington in September 2020, burning almost as much forest west of the Cascade Mountain crest (“the westside”) in 2 weeks (~340,000 ha) as in the previous five decades (~406,00 ha). Unlike dry forests of the interior western United States, temperate rain forests of the Pacific Northwest have experienced limited recent fire activity, and debates surrounding what drove the 2020 fires, and management strategies to adapt to similar future events, necessitate a scientific evaluation of the fires. We evaluate five questions regarding the 2020 Labor Day fires: (1) How do the 2020 fires compare with historical fires? (2) How did the roles of weather and antecedent climate differ geographically and from the recent past (1979–2019)? (3) How do fire size and severity compare to other recent fires (1985–2019), and how did forest management and prefire forest structure influence burn severity? (4) What impact will these fires have on westside landscapes? and (5) How can we adapt to similar fires in the future? Although 5 of the 2020 fires were much larger than any others in the recent past and burned ~10 times the area in high‐severity patches 〉 10,000 ha, the 2020 fires were remarkably consistent with historical fires. Reports from the early 1900s, along with paleo‐ and dendro‐ecological records, indicate similar and potentially even larger wildfires over the past millennium, many of which shared similar seasonality (late August/early September), weather conditions, and even geographic locations. Consistent with the largest historical fires, strong east winds and anomalously dry conditions drove the rapid spread of high‐severity wildfire in 2020. We found minimal difference in burn severity among stand structural types related to previous management in the 2020 fires. Adaptation strategies for similar fires in the future could benefit by focusing on ignition prevention, fire suppression, and community preparedness, as opposed to fuel treatments that are unlikely to mitigate fire severity during extreme weather. While scientific uncertainties remain regarding the nature of infrequent, high‐severity fires in westside forests, particularly under climate change, adapting to their future occurrence will require different strategies than those in interior, dry forests.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2150-8925 , 2150-8925
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2572257-8
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    MDPI AG ; 2021
    In:  Forests Vol. 12, No. 7 ( 2021-07-16), p. 934-
    In: Forests, MDPI AG, Vol. 12, No. 7 ( 2021-07-16), p. 934-
    Abstract: Optimized wildfire risk reduction strategies are generally not resilient in the event of unanticipated, or very rare events, presenting a hazard in risk assessments which otherwise rely on actuarial, mean-based statistics to characterize risk. This hazard of actuarial approaches to wildfire risk is perhaps particularly evident for infrequent fire regimes such as those in the temperate forests west of the Cascade Range crest in Oregon and Washington, USA (“Westside”), where fire return intervals often exceed 200 years but where fires can be extremely intense and devastating. In this study, we used wildfire simulations and building location data to evaluate community wildfire exposure and identify plausible disasters that are not based on typical mean-based statistical approaches. We compared the location and magnitude of simulated disasters to historical disasters (1984–2020) in order to characterize plausible surprises which could inform future wildfire risk reduction planning. Results indicate that nearly half of communities are vulnerable to a future disaster, that the magnitude of plausible disasters exceeds any recent historical events, and that ignitions on private land are most likely to result in very high community exposure. Our methods, in combination with more typical actuarial characterizations, provide a way to support investment in and communication with communities exposed to low-probability, high-consequence wildfires.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1999-4907
    Language: English
    Publisher: MDPI AG
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2527081-3
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2018
    In:  Scientific Data Vol. 5, No. 1 ( 2018-02-20)
    In: Scientific Data, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 5, No. 1 ( 2018-02-20)
    Abstract: Statistically downscaled climate data have been widely used to explore possible impacts of climate change in various fields of study. Although many studies have focused on characterizing differences in the downscaling methods, few studies have evaluated actual downscaled datasets being distributed publicly. Spatially focusing on the Pacific Northwest, we compare five statistically downscaled climate datasets distributed publicly in the US: ClimateNA, NASA NEX-DCP30, MACAv2-METDATA, MACAv2-LIVNEH and WorldClim. We compare the downscaled projections of climate change, and the associated observational data used as training data for downscaling. We map and quantify the variability among the datasets and characterize the spatio-temporal patterns of agreement and disagreement among the datasets. Pair-wise comparisons of datasets identify the coast and high-elevation areas as areas of disagreement for temperature. For precipitation, high-elevation areas, rainshadows and the dry, eastern portion of the study area have high dissimilarity among the datasets. By spatially aggregating the variability measures into watersheds, we develop guidance for selecting datasets within the Pacific Northwest climate change impact studies.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2052-4463
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2775191-0
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2018
    In:  Scientific Data Vol. 5, No. 1 ( 2018-03-27)
    In: Scientific Data, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 5, No. 1 ( 2018-03-27)
    Abstract: Scientific Data 5:180016 doi: 10.1038/sdata.2018.16 (2018); Published 20 February 2018; Updated 27 March 2018. In Fig. 5 of this Data Descriptor the bottom-most y-axis label was inadvertently changed from ‘ΔPPT (mm)’ to ‘ΔPPT (min)’ during the production process. The correct version of Fig. 5 appears below as Fig.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2052-4463
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2775191-0
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