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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Unintended consequences of climate‐adaptive fisheries management targets
    Wiley ; 2023
    In:  Fish and Fisheries Vol. 24, No. 3 ( 2023-05), p. 439-453
    Details
    In: Fish and Fisheries, Wiley, Vol. 24, No. 3 ( 2023-05), p. 439-453
    Abstract: Climate change is projected to affect the productivity of global fisheries. Management based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY) has been effective at eliminating overfishing in many regions. However, continuing to use yield‐maximizing targets under climate‐driven changes in productivity can result in higher anthropogenic pressure on populations subject to climate‐related stress than maintaining status quo management targets. We demonstrate this effect using a theoretical example and case studies from snow crab in the eastern Bering Sea and a global marine fisheries database. In these examples, the conservation gain (i.e. biomass in the ocean) of maintaining status quo management targets is larger than the small gain in harvest made through climate adaptation in MSY‐based management. The aggregate conservation gain of maintaining management targets increases as the harmful impacts of climate change on productivity worsen. Instead of climate‐adaptive MSY‐based targets, new management tools are needed to balance conservation and food production in ecosystems of populations displaying non‐stationary productivity.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1467-2960 , 1467-2979
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1111/faf.v24.3
    DOI: 10.1111/faf.12737
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2023
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    SSG: 21,3
    SSG: 12
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Evaluating management strategies for eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in a changing environment
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2011
    In:  ICES Journal of Marine Science Vol. 68, No. 6 ( 2011-07-01), p. 1297-1304
    Details
    In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 68, No. 6 ( 2011-07-01), p. 1297-1304
    Abstract: Ianelli, J. N., Hollowed, A. B., Haynie, A. C., Mueter, F. J., and Bond, N. A. 2011. Evaluating management strategies for eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in a changing environment. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1297–1304. The impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries is expected to increase the demand for more accurate stock projections and harvest strategies that are robust to shifting production regimes. To address these concerns, we evaluate the performance of fishery management control rules for eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock stock under climate change. We compared the status quo policy with six alternative management strategies under two types of recruitment pattern simulations: one that follows temperature-induced trends and the other that follows a stationary recruitment pattern similar to historical observations. A subset of 82 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models provided temperature inputs from which an additional 100 stochastic simulated recruitments were generated to obtain the same overall recruitment variability as observed for the stationary recruitment simulations. Results indicate that status quo management with static reference points and current ecosystem considerations will result in much lower average catches and an increased likelihood of fishery closures, should reduced recruitment because of warming conditions hold. Alternative reference point calculations and control rules have similar performance under stationary recruitment relative to status quo, but may offer significant gains under the changing environmental conditions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1095-9289 , 1054-3139
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsr010
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2011
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1468003-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 29056-7
    SSG: 12
    SSG: 21,3
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2011
    In:  ICES Journal of Marine Science Vol. 68, No. 6 ( 2011-07-01), p. 1284-1296
    Details
    In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 68, No. 6 ( 2011-07-01), p. 1284-1296
    Abstract: Mueter, F. J., Bond, N. A., Ianelli, J. N., and Hollowed, A. B. 2011. Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1284–1296. A statistical model is developed to link recruitment of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) to variability in late summer sea surface temperatures and to the biomass of major predators. The model is based on recent advances in the understanding of pollock recruitment, which suggest that warm spring conditions enhance the survival of early larvae, but high temperatures in late summer and autumn are associated with poor feeding conditions for young-of-year pollock and reduced recruitment in the following year. A statistical downscaling approach is used to generate an ensemble of late summer temperature forecasts through 2050, based on a range of IPCC climate projections. These forecasts are used to simulate future recruitment within an age-structured stock projection model that accounts for density-dependent effects (stock–recruitment relationship), the estimated effects of temperature and predation, and associated uncertainties. On average, recruitment in 2040–2050 should expectedly decline by 32–58% relative to a random recruitment scenario, depending on assumptions about the temperature relationship, the magnitude of density-dependence, and future changes in predator biomass. The approach illustrated here can be used to evaluate the performance of different management strategies and provide long-term strategic advice to managers confronted with a rapidly changing climate.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1095-9289 , 1054-3139
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsr022
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2011
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1468003-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 29056-7
    SSG: 12
    SSG: 21,3
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Modelling spatially dependent predation mortality of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock, and its implications for stock dynamics under future climate scenarios
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2016
    In:  ICES Journal of Marine Science Vol. 73, No. 5 ( 2016-05-01), p. 1330-1342
    Details
    In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 73, No. 5 ( 2016-05-01), p. 1330-1342
    Abstract: Arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) are an important predator of juvenile walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogramus) in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) shelf and have increased 3-fold in biomass from 1977 to 2014. Arrowtooth flounder avoid the summer “cold pool” (bottom water ≤2°C) and variability in cold pool size and location has affected their spatial overlap with juvenile walleye pollock. Developing a method to account for the relationship between climate change and pollock mortality can highlight ecosystem dynamics and contribute to better assessments for fisheries management. Consequently, spatially resolved predation mortality rates were estimated within an age-structured walleye pollock stock assessment population model (based on spatial information on diet and abundance from trawl surveys), along with the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) on pollock recruitment. Projections of SST and cold pool area to 2050 were obtained (or statistically downscaled) from nine global climate models and used within an age-structure population model to project pollock abundance given estimated relationships between environmental variables and predator and prey spatial distributions, pollock recruitment, and maximum rate of arrowtooth flounder consumption. The climate projections show a wide range of variability but an overall trend of increasing SST and decreasing cold pool area. Projected pollock biomass decreased largely due to the negative effect of increased SST on pollock recruitment. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the decline in projected pollock biomass would be exacerbated if arrowtooth flounder increased their relative distribution in the EBS northwest middle shelf (an area of relatively high density of juvenile pollock) in warm years.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1095-9289 , 1054-3139
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsw040
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2016
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1468003-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 29056-7
    SSG: 12
    SSG: 21,3
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    Online Resource
  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Management strategy analysis for multispecies fisheries, including technical interactions and human behavior in modelling management decisions and fishing
    Canadian Science Publishing ; 2018
    In:  Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Vol. 75, No. 8 ( 2018-08), p. 1185-1202
    Details
    In: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Canadian Science Publishing, Vol. 75, No. 8 ( 2018-08), p. 1185-1202
    Abstract: A multispecies fishery management strategy evaluation (MSE) framework based on the example of the groundfish fishery in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region of Alaska was used to examine the interplay between a bycatch species and three groundfish species. The study introduces a framework for a realistic multispecies fishery MSE by accounting for fleet dynamics, multispecies fishery quota allocation, and the temporal dynamics of technical interactions. The quota allocation and the fleet dynamics models were implemented using linear programming, and regression approaches were used to make a realistic projection of future users’ behavioral response to changes in the fishery. The models were calibrated and then validated using historical and out-of-sample data, respectively. The results highlight the importance of accounting for technical interactions and their interannual dynamics for both quota allocation and fleet dynamics to design a realistic multispecies fishery MSE (without them, the amount of lost yield increased). Therefore, particular attention should be paid to understanding human behavior as well as its uncertainty and to refining approaches to incorporate this information into a multispecies fishery management strategy analysis.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0706-652X , 1205-7533
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2017-0135
    Language: English
    Publisher: Canadian Science Publishing
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7966-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1473089-3
    SSG: 21,3
    SSG: 12
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