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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Twenty‐first‐century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins
    Wiley ; 2019
    In:  Global Change Biology Vol. 25, No. 2 ( 2019-02), p. 459-472
    Details
    In: Global Change Biology, Wiley, Vol. 25, No. 2 ( 2019-02), p. 459-472
    Abstract: Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio‐economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery‐dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish‐MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%–30% (±12%–17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%–80% (±35%–200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size‐classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1354-1013 , 1365-2486
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1111/gcb.2019.25.issue-2
    DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14512
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020313-5
    SSG: 12
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Nature Climate Change Vol. 11, No. 11 ( 2021-11), p. 973-981
    Details
    In: Nature Climate Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 11, No. 11 ( 2021-11), p. 973-981
    Abstract: Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1758-678X , 1758-6798
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2603450-5
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2019
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 116, No. 26 ( 2019-06-25), p. 12907-12912
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, No. 26 ( 2019-06-25), p. 12907-12912
    Abstract: While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900194116
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2018
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 11, No. 4 ( 2018-04-13), p. 1421-1442
    Details
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 11, No. 4 ( 2018-04-13), p. 1421-1442
    Abstract: Abstract. Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean
    Canadian Science Publishing ; 2023
    In:  FACETS Vol. 8 ( 2023-01-01), p. 1-16
    Details
    In: FACETS, Canadian Science Publishing, Vol. 8 ( 2023-01-01), p. 1-16
    Abstract: Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2371-1671
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1139/facets-2023-0024
    Language: English
    Publisher: Canadian Science Publishing
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2852896-7
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