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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios
    IOP Publishing ; 2021
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 16, No. 2 ( 2021-02-01), p. 024049-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 16, No. 2 ( 2021-02-01), p. 024049-
    Abstract: Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr −1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2024
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 17, No. 1 ( 2024-01-04), p. 1-51
    Details
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 17, No. 1 ( 2024-01-04), p. 1-51
    Abstract: Abstract. This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2020
    In:  Climatic Change Vol. 163, No. 3 ( 2020-12), p. 1329-1351
    Details
    In: Climatic Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 163, No. 3 ( 2020-12), p. 1329-1351
    Abstract: Global Water Models (GWMs), which include Global Hydrological, Land Surface, and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, present valuable tools for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrological processes in the data scarce high latitudes. Here we performed a systematic model performance evaluation in six major Pan-Arctic watersheds for different hydrological indicators (monthly and seasonal discharge, extremes, trends (or lack of), and snow water equivalent (SWE)) via a novel Aggregated Performance Index (API) that is based on commonly used statistical evaluation metrics. The machine learning Boruta feature selection algorithm was used to evaluate the explanatory power of the API attributes. Our results show that the majority of the nine GWMs included in the study exhibit considerable difficulties in realistically representing Pan-Arctic hydrological processes. Average API discharge (monthly and seasonal discharge) over nine GWMs is 〉  50% only in the Kolyma basin (55%), as low as 30% in the Yukon basin and averaged over all watersheds API discharge is 43%. WATERGAP2 and MATSIRO present the highest (API discharge   〉  55%) while ORCHIDEE and JULES-W1 the lowest (API discharge  ≤ 25%) performing GWMs over all watersheds. For the high and low flows, average API extreme is 35% and 26%, respectively, and over six GWMs API SWE is 57%. The Boruta algorithm suggests that using different observation-based climate data sets does not influence the total score of the APIs in all watersheds. Ultimately, only satisfactory to good performing GWMs that effectively represent cold-region hydrological processes (including snow-related processes, permafrost) should be included in multi-model climate change impact assessments in Pan-Arctic watersheds.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0165-0009 , 1573-1480
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02892-2
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 751086-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1477652-2
    SSG: 14
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
    IOP Publishing ; 2020
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 15, No. 4 ( 2020-04-01), p. 044006-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 15, No. 4 ( 2020-04-01), p. 044006-
    Abstract: Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Saturation of Global Terrestrial Carbon Sink Under a High Warming Scenario
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Global Biogeochemical Cycles Vol. 35, No. 10 ( 2021-10)
    Details
    In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 35, No. 10 ( 2021-10)
    Abstract: Elevated temperature has negative impacts on terrestrial carbon sink CO 2 effects on terrestrial carbon sink saturate at high CO 2 concentration Interannual variability of terrestrial carbon sink is more correlated with temperature under RCP2.6 but precipitation under RCP6.0
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0886-6236 , 1944-9224
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2020GB006800
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021601-4
    SSG: 12
    SSG: 13
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Understanding each other's models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 14, No. 6 ( 2021-06-24), p. 3843-3878
    Details
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 14, No. 6 ( 2021-06-24), p. 3843-3878
    Abstract: Abstract. Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle on the global scale and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modelling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to describe various processes take different forms and are generally accessible only from within the individual model codes. These factors have hindered a holistic and detailed understanding of how different models operate, yet such an understanding is crucial for explaining the results of model evaluation studies, understanding inter-model differences in their simulations, and identifying areas for future model development. This study provides a comprehensive overview of how 16 state-of-the-art GWMs are designed. We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b). We develop a standard writing style for the model equations to enhance model intercomparison, improvement, and communication. In this study, WaterGAP2 used the highest number of water storage compartments, 11, and CWatM used 10 compartments. Six models used six compartments, while four models (DBH, JULES-W1, Mac-PDM.20, and VIC) used the lowest number, three compartments. WaterGAP2 simulates five human water use sectors, while four models (CLM4.5, CLM5.0, LPJmL, and MPI-HM) simulate only water for the irrigation sector. We conclude that, even though hydrological processes are often based on similar equations for various processes, in the end these equations have been adjusted or models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables. The similarities and differences found among the models analysed in this study are expected to enable us to reduce the uncertainty in multi-model ensembles, improve existing hydrological processes, and integrate new processes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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